NBA Play-in Round Betting Breakdown (Wednesday Games)

The NBA play-in round starts Tuesday with the Nos. 7 and 8 teams in each conference playing to solidify their spot in the playoffs. The Wednesday games between the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds are the first elimination games. The losers are done for the season, with the winners moving on to play the loser of the Tuesday games Friday night for the final playoff spot in each conference.

In the East we have a matchup of the Chicago Bulls and the Toronto Raptors. In the Western Conference, the game is between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the New Orleans Pelicans. 

Eastern Conference

Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors

The Raptors faced the Bulls three times during the regular season, winning two of the three games. The first two were all the way back in November. Pascal Siakam did not play for the Raptors in either of them. Zach Lavine missed one of the games for the Bulls. These games were also played before the Bulls made the trade for Patrick Beverley, which has had a positive impact on their defense. That is why I do not put much stock in the predictive ability of these early season matchups. 

The third matchup was the one closest to what we should expect here. The Raptors had Siakam back in the lineup and the addition of Jakob Poeltl. The Bulls added Patrick Beverley, who may have played a role in the bad game Fred VanVleet played the last time these teams met. The Raptors did win that game 104-98, which we will come back to later. 

The Bulls ranked 20th in the league for pace, with the Raptors even lower at 25th. Both teams are in the bottom part of the league for pace, so this is not going to be the kind of game that ends in the 120s without overtime. The Toronto Raptors ranked 12th on the season for points per 100 possessions and 14th for points allowed per 100. Over the last two weeks of the season, they ranked 10th and seventh, so they are healthy and finished strong. Chicago is less balanced than Toronto. They were absolutely lights out defensively, giving up just the fifth fewest per 100 possessions and also playing at a slow pace that kept scores low in many of their games. Their lack of offense also helped keep the scores low as the Bulls finished the season 24th in points per 100 possessions. The total of this game is low at just 214.5, but in the three previous matchups the highest total was just 217 points, with the average final score of the three games adding up to just 209. 

Fred VanVleet was not 100% when these teams last met, yet the Raptors were able to win that game anyway thanks to some hot shooting from Gary Trent off the bench. Pascal Siakam was missing in the only loss the Raptors had to the Bulls as well. If the odds were even, the Raptors are the side I would absolutely be on here. With the game in Toronto, I think they are a deserving favorite here. The question really comes down to how much do they deserve to be favored? With VanVleet stinking up the joint last time out, the Raptors still managed to win by more than the -5 opening number. I would be shocked if the Bulls get them outright here, but I think they can keep it close. I would rather take 5 or more points with the Bulls than lay that many with the Raptors in a game that should be slow paced, low scoring, and features two above-average defenses. 

The Picks: Bulls +5, Under 214.5

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans

The Thunder and Pelicans have already met four times this season, with the Pelicans winning three of those four games. They won the first game without Brandon Ingram or CJ McCollum. Ingram also missed the second game and McCollum also missed the third. The Pelicans managed to win all three of those matchups. The one game they did lose was the most recent contest and Ingram was not in uniform for that one either. Zion Williamson is still going to be out for the Pelicans, but McCollum and Ingram are both available to play in this one. 

The Pelicans are at home and get a boost in pace as the Thunder rank fifth in that category and the Pelicans are middle of the pack at 16th. The Thunder fall 16th for both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. The Pelicans’ scoring is a tad worse at 18th, but they allowed just the sixth-fewest points per 100 possessions of any team in the league. That defensive toughness is what should help carry them to a victory in this one. The three Pelicans victories over the Thunder were by 4, 3 and 3 points. The spread here is five, but remember this is the first time the Pelicans face the Thunder with both McCollum and Ingram in uniform. 

In four matchups this season, the total points scored are 206, 253, 203 and 206. Only once have these two teams gone over the 228.5 total we have for this game. The Thunder were one of the best over teams in the NBA this season, hitting overs at 56.1%, tied for the fourth-highest mark in the NBA. The Pelicans ended up on the opposite end of the spectrum. They cashed the over in just 46.3% of their games, tied for the fourth lowest mark in the NBA. Considering they are at home and also at full strength, I would expect them to control the game, which likely leads to another under. 

The Picks: Pelicans -5, Under 228.5