NBA Game of the Day, 2/12: Warriors vs. Mavericks

Golden State Warriors -6.5

(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The dissolution of the Mavericks continues. Dereck Lively II has been out for weeks, Anthony Davis picked up an injury that will keep him out for weeks, and now Daniel Gafford is going to miss time. That’s all of the centers on the Mavericks, and a cluster injury at that position can be devastating. No center means more offensive rebounds for the other team giving them more chances to score. Those chances to score are even easier when there is no center on the floor to protect the rim. Things will be even more difficult if P.J. Washington Jr., one of the team’s best perimeter defenders, misses the game and can’t be on the floor to keep players from getting into the lane. Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson can keep the offense afloat, but they can’t score enough points to overcome the defensive struggles that are in store for Dallas. Until they get healthy, the Mavericks are a team that we should be fading almost every time we can.

Wednesday is no exception. The Golden State Warriors look reinvigorated since acquiring Jimmy Bulter at the trade deadline. It’s only been two games, but both have been dominating road wins. Butler doesn’t help the lack of shooting, but he does help with the lack of ball handling and shot creation. Stephen Curry is at his best when he is cutting and moving around the floor, off the ball. Before Butler’s arrival, Draymond Green was arguably the only player on the team who can hold the ball and find Curry when he’s open. Butler fits perfectly next to Curry in this way, and they’ve already started to build a strong connection. This helps maximize Curry and allow the Warriors to control the pace of the game by grinding through their offense until they find the best shot. That level of control not only helps the team score but limits their exposure on defense by limiting opponents’ fast break chances and points off turnovers. I know the books already make Golden State big favorites, but I make them even bigger. We get a chance to lay 6.5 points in a game that I make 10. Let’s do it.

Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this event and there is one in particular I like a lot.

Draymond Green Over 1.5 Steals

(+140, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Draymond Green is one of the best defensive players in NBA history, and with things more settled on the offensive end, Green can give his full attention to stopping opponents. He’s a good rim protector and a player who has always forced turnovers. In his five games since returning from injury, he has had two or more steals four times and is averaging over 2.5 steals. Our model at FTN projects him to have almost two steals Wednesday and would price this close to +100. At +140, we’re looking at an over 10% edge and an expected value of more than 16%.

You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.