Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
March Madness isn’t just for college hoops, as the NBA presents us with an electric eight-game NBA DFS slate to kick off the workweek.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -4, total: 239
The most fantasy-friendly slate happens to be the first of the night, as it’s going to be difficult to not want exposure to this game.
LaMelo Ball’s price has dropped incrementally on DraftKings ($8,700), and he finds himself in an elite matchup, as the Kings allow the eighth-most transition points per game (20.9) in the league and the most transition points per possession (1.25). This should cater to one of his strengths, making him an elite play in this game. Terry Rozier also gets a bump here, as he’s averaging the fourth-most transition points per game in basketball (5.6). He’s not as safe as Ball, reserving him more for GPP formats.
Gordon Hayward is still affordable ($7,300 on DraftKings) and should come in as a popular play, but I’m choosing to reserve him for tournament formats given his recent level of volatility. He, does, however, have a ton of upside in this matchup and his peripherals are starting to come around.
For the Kings, De'Aaron Fox is the starting point for this team and at $9,100, I have a hard time believing that his ownership will be anything outlandish. The Hornets rank 21st against primary ball handlers, making him an elite play, but one I will put behind Ball in the priority order. I prefer to take the savings on Buddy Hield, even after a dud last game. His shot simply wasn’t falling (4-16 from the field), but he still played 37 minutes and had five assists and four boards. The Hornets are allowing the second-most threes per game (15.1) in the NBA, making this a matchup ripe for Hield to exploit. You can also get away with Richaun Holmes, as the Hornets rank in the bottom half of the NBA against both rebounders and crafty finishers, per advanced DvP. He’s in great recent form, too.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards
MIL -9.5, total: 239
This is an identical matchup to what we saw on Saturday, resulting in a 125-119 win for the Bucks. Those results bode well for the prospects of this game, as the Wizards were able to keep it within striking distance without Bradley Beal.
While the spread is still 9.5 in favor of the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the top overall spend-up on the slate. He just posted over 70 DraftKings points against this team and has recorded a triple-double in back-to-back games (for the first time in his career). There is still a concern for a blowout, but those cautions should be scaled back with the return of Beal.
Outside of Giannis, Jrue Holiday is the best Bucks option to target. He’s simply too cheap on DraftKings at $6,500 and posted 18 points and eight rebounds en route to 38 fantasy points in their last meeting. Now that he’s over the 30-minute mark, he should be a safe bet for 5x+ his salary. You can also get away with Khris Middleton in lineups where you fade Giannis, but I still prefer the savings on Holiday. Bobby Portis is the other option on this team that I really like. He’s still under $5,000 on both sites and posted 29 DK points in 22 minutes last game, an outcome that I deem rather likely once again.
For the Wizards, you don’t have to run it back with someone and neither of the studs is a must-play like they typically are when one or the other is out, but they’re still strong options. Of the two, Bradley Beal is my lean, as his $9,400 tag leaves room for a ceiling relative to his salary.
The ancillary pieces take a bit of a hit with Beal back, but both Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija would see incremental boosts if Davis Bertans misses his second consecutive game. While Hachimura had the ceiling game on Saturday, I still prefer the savings on Avdija if Bertans is out simply because I expect most of that production from Hachimura to shift back to Beal.
New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -8, total: 224.5
This game presents us with an immovable object versus an unstoppable force, as the Knicks' slow, defensive-oriented team takes on the Nets’ lightning-quick offensive attack.
Because I expect Brooklyn to control the pace more, I have some interest in the Knicks. Julius Randle’s ceiling is legitimately above 60 DraftKings points here, as he’s fresh off of a triple-double against the Thunder and will have nobody to stop him in this game. His price is the only thing working against him, as he’s tough to fit alongside another stud without getting too deep into the value pool. My real interest in the Knicks lies with Immanuel Quickley. Derrick Rose has been ruled out and Elfrid Payton is doubtful, leaving a boat-load of point guard minutes up for grabs. While he likely won’t start, he saw this same situation last game and posted 21 points in 33 minutes off of the bench. I expect a similar, if not better performance in an even better matchup.
You can also get away with both RJ Barrett and Alec Burks, as both should handle the ball more without two of the point guards and both are in great form relative to their prices on DraftKings.
For the Nets, it continues to be James Harden, Kyrie Irving or bust for me. Of the two, I prefer the savings on Irving simply because I’m so high on Giannis as my spend-up. Even so, Harden is an elite play and has some of, if not the highest upside on the entire slate.
San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
SAS -3, total: 219.5
Monday could mark the third consecutive game without DeMar DeRozan in the lineup for the Spurs, but we have yet to receive any confirmation after he missed the Sunday game to tend to personal matters. With him (and LaMarcus Aldridge) off the floor this season, Derrick White sees a 3.6% jump in usage rate while Patty Mills sees a 4.9% bump. If DeRozan is out, both of these players make for viable value plays but do still come with rather low floors.
This would also make Dejounte Murray a very strong play at $7,700, as he sports a 25.7% usage rate, 26.8% assist rate and 1.17 DKP/min in this scenario. Keldon Johnson would be the final piece of the rotation I would have interest in, but his upside has been virtually non-existent lately, making him hard to trust in anything more than large-field tournaments.
For the Pistons, Delon Wright saw over 30 minutes for the first time since his return from injury and remains too cheap at $5,600. He posted over 30 DK points last game and should benefit from a close spread in this game, especially if Dennis Smith Jr. remains out.
Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee are also viable in this matchup, as both have demonstrated massive ceilings relative to their prices. I would not, however, classify them as core plays. They are simply players I would want some exposure to if running 10-20+ lineups.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks
LAC -1.5, total: 227.5
The Clippers enter this game on the second leg of a back-to-back, leaving the door open for one or both of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to rest. The analysis is rather simple if one of them does: play the other. Both are far too cheap and would become core plays if one of them happens to sit out. Even if both are active, you can make a case for either of these players at their sub-$9,000 price tags.
Outside of the two studs, Ivica Zubac would be the only other player who I have some interest in here, as Serge Ibaka has already been ruled out. Zubac has never been a player that logs heavy minutes but has averaged 1.10 DKP/min over the last two seasons and should see an incremental boost in playing time after he started the second half for Ibaka last game. Given his price, he’s a viable option in two-center builds, especially against a Mavs team that ranks in the bottom-third in the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed in the restricted area (64.9%).
For the Mavs, this team will continue to be Luka Doncic or Kristaps Porzingis for me as long as they’re both healthy. This is a difficult matchup for Doncic, putting him behind both Giannis and Harden in the spend-up tier, but he’s not a player to entirely write off.
Porzingis could experience some added success, as the Clippers allow the ninth-highest field-goal percentage in the restricted area (65.0%) and will now be without one of their premier rim protectors in Serge Ibaka.
Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -5, total: 225.5
The biggest surprise of the weekend may have been the fact that Caris LeVert returned without any type of restrictions, playing 27 minutes in his first start for the Pacers. While there was obviously some rust (5-14 from the field), the playing time and spot in the starting lineup certainly help his stock. He’s a touch expensive at $7,000 on DraftKings, but his $4,100 price tag on FanDuel should (rightfully) make him one of the most popular plays on the slate over there.
Both Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are viable here, as the Nuggets get killed at the rim, an area where both of these two excel. If this game is to stay close (I envision Indiana covering), then both will have to play well. A case can also be made for Myles Turner, who should be extra active defensively around the rim given the matchup with Nikola Jokic, but he’s too volatile to trust in anything more than large-field tournaments.
For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to be in the conversation for top spend-up regardless of the matchup. While Indiana is a middling matchup and Myles Turner is a defensive player of the year candidate, Jokic’s rates (29.8% usage rate, 38.3% assist rate, 17.7% rebounding rate, 1.60 DKP/min) are too elite to pass up. While he sits behind Giannis and Harden, he’s neck-and-neck with Doncic in terms of the spend-up priority.
Outside of Jokic, the only other Nuggets player I have any interest in is Michael Porter Jr., and my interest is specific to FanDuel. His $6,700 price tag feels a touch cheap at a thin position where he offers 40-FanDuel-point upside. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he should have no problem getting to where you need him to be.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -7, total: 228
Of all of the games on the slate, this is the one that I have the least amount of interest in. The Grizzlies have been a rather middling matchup by just about every measure while the Suns have been a stout defensive unit that plays at a rather slow pace.
If you feel the need to target anyone on the Grizzlies, I would condense my exposure to Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas, as they still have respectable ceilings relative to their prices even in a tough matchup.
For the Suns, Chris Paul remains a stable cash-game play, as he seems like a shoo-in for 35 or more DraftKings points just about every slate. Devin Booker is a viable shooting guard option but is more appealing on FanDuel given his $7,500 price tag. He’s topped 30 FD points in 11 of his last 12 games, giving him a rock-solid floor with the upside to surpass 50 FD points on any given slate.
The opposite can be said for Deandre Ayton, who’s more appealing on DraftKings given his $6,300 price tag and the double-double bonus that’s baked into their scoring system. A matchup with Valanciunas should keep him around the rim, which will hopefully add some extra rebounding chances and defensive peripherals.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors
LAL -2.5, total: 222.5
The final game of the night has a pair of stars that should come in at low ownership. LeBron James should be able to exploit a pace-up spot in a tight spread, but his recent performances against the Warriors have been extremely underwhelming. He’s faced them twice over the last two months, failing to reach 20 raw points or more than six rebounds or assists in either game. He still steps into an elite spot, but I cannot prioritize him over the aforementioned spend-ups.
The Lakers’ player who I have the most interest in is Dennis Schroder, as $6,100 for a player who’s topped 30 DK points in five of his last six games feels a touch cheap. He’ll continue to take on more usage without Davis and makes for a strong low-owned play in the mid-tier range. His defense will also come in handy against Steph Curry.
Speaking of Curry, his $10,000 price tag is an attractive one, but like James, I simply cannot prioritize him over the other spend-ups. If you’re a believer that this game both stays close and puts up a lot of points, I do like the idea of pairing him with James or Schroder as a mini-stack.
I have more interest in Draymond Green on this slate, as his price has come down to $6,500 and he’s averaged 40.4 DK points over his last two games. He’s a player who gets up for big matchups, and it’s hard to find a bigger matchup than one with the GOAT*.
*I am not interested in a GOAT debate, so do not test me. It’s LeBron.
