Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Blowouts continue to ravage the NBA, as five of the Friday evening’s 10 games finished with a margin of 10 or more points. There seems to be a heap of similar potential on the Saturday slate as well, as only one game (Raptors vs. Pelicans) has a projected spread within seven points. That affects our DFS prep.
With a couple of games under our belt for just about every team, the pace and Defensive efficiency metrics listed are now current. That said, it’s important to take them with a bit more of a grain of salt than normal considering we are still less than a week into the season.
Vegas Odds derived from DraftKings SportsBook.
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New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers (-9)
Pace: NYK (24th), IND (T15th)
Defensive efficiency: NYK (9th), IND (10th)
If the season stopped today, it’d be hard to not put Julius Randle in the MVP discussion. That’s how good he’s been. In terms of fantasy, he’s averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute with a 32.1% assist rate and 26.1% usage rate as a big. On a short slate, $9,100 for him is incredibly reasonable. The rest of the Knicks will really hinge on the availability of Alec Burks. If he’s out, we can continue to look to Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock, especially if Austin Rivers remains limited. If both are a full go, it may be wise to avoid this backcourt altogether.
Mitchell Robinson is still cheap, but with so many other bigs on the slate with center eligibility on DraftKings, he makes much more sense on FanDuel.
On the Pacers side of the ball, it’s hard to get away from Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon, even at elevated prices. With T.J. Warren out, Sabonis holds a 1.47 FPPM clip and a 26.6% usage rate (+2.6% bump), while Brogdon holds a 22.5% usage rate and 24.4% assist rate. The matchup is enticing as well, as New York should be able to keep this closer than the spread entails. Victor Oladipo also warrants consideration, as he saw a 4.1% usage bump with Warren out last season, as well as a 3.2% bump in assist rate.
This could also lead to Justin Holiday and Doug McDermott getting more playing time, both of which are fine value punts on a condensed slate.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic (-7.5)
Pace: OKC (T19th), ORL (6th)
Defensive efficiency: OKC (21st), ORL (13th)
This is another spread that I expect to end up tighter than Vegas predicts. The Thunder are coming off of a blowout loss where most of their starters failed to crack 30 minutes. That said, I’m 100% going right back to the well with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. His price dropped below $8,000 on DraftKings and he still holds the keys to this offense, leading the team in usage and assist rate while averaging a fantasy point per minute. It also helps that Orlando is running at a top-10 pace right now.
The rest of the Thunder are rather meh. Darius Bazley and Luguentz Dort are both reasonably priced but remain volatile even with their increased roles. The same can be said for Al Horford. George Hill is the other Thunder player that should garner attention, as he’s posted 1.06 FPPM and should be a lock for 22-25 minutes for only $4,800.
For the Magic, Nikola Vucevic will continue to be one of my top centers whenever he’s on a slate. In games where he’s seen at least 30 minutes this season (three of five — he missed once because of a blowout and once for foul trouble), he’s posted at least 39 DraftKings points every time, logging a double-double and at least three assists in each of those contests. Expect a similar outcome Saturday.
While Evan Fournier is listed as questionable after exiting the last game with a back issue, Terrence Ross is now listed as probable. If Fournier is out, Ross gets a bump. That would also give Cole Anthony and Michael Carter-Williams bumps, making them attractive value pieces.
Charlotte Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5)
Pace: CHA (11th), PHI (T13th)
Defensive efficiency: CHA (8th), PHI (1st)
While I believe the first two games have potential to be closer than the spread implies, this is one where I agree with Vegas, especially with Charlotte on the second leg of a back-to-back. What’s even better is that the Sixers are not on either side of a back-to-back. This means that Joel Embiid should be a full go, making him my top overall play on the slate.
Charlotte is a matchup to attack with centers, and with Embiid topping at least 48 DK points in every game that he’s played 30-plus minutes, he makes for an easy play. You can correlate him with Ben Simmons, but it’s truly hard to trust the rest of the Sixers team when they’re entirely healthy. For that reason, Simmons and Tobias Harris profile more as GPP plays. Seth Curry and Shake Milton are interesting value plays, as they could see significant run if this game gets out of hand but have a safe floor in terms of minutes even if the game stays close.
Charlotte is a team that I’ll be fading in most of my lineups, as they’re on the second leg of a back-to-back and facing the best defense in the NBA (as of now). It is, however, an interesting spot to go right back to Gordon Hayward after he busted at over 30% ownership on Friday. He only played 27 minutes, leaving the door open for a normal workload and has still topped 46 DK points twice so far this season at a reasonable price ($7,200).
LaMelo Ball is the other Hornet who garners my interest, as a blowout one way or the other works in his favor. The other thing working in his favor is the fact that he’s seen at least 27 minutes in back-to-back games, topping 31 DK points in both. He’s pushes the pace when on the court, leading to more possessions and in turn, more production. He’s my favorite overall Hornet in both formats.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks (-7)
Pace: CLE (T22nd), ATL (9th)
Defensive efficiency: CLE (5th), ATL (22nd)
The Cavs have been a team to take advantage of with so many injuries opening up value lately and the same thing can be said on Saturday, as Kevin Love, Isaac Okoro, Matthew Dellavedova and Kevin Porter remain out. This will in turn continue to lead to more minutes for Larry Nance, Cedi Osman and JaVale McGee (yes, he’s still in the NBA). All three are viable on a short slate, but none are a must. Nance, of the three, provides the most upside.
Darius Garland is someone I will continue to target at his price ($6,000 on DraftKings), especially in a pace-up matchup with the Hawks. On the season, he’s posted a 22.7% usage rate with 1.1 FPPM, putting him over 6x value if he sees his normal 36-plus minutes, strictly based off his current production clip. Collin Sexton also warrants consideration, as he carries a 25.1% usage rate into a matchup with Trae Young defense.
Andre Drummond, of course, will likely be the most popular Cavs player. With Love out, he’s posted an absurd 31.7% usage rate, 1.63 FPPM clip and 28.6% rebounding rate. A price tag of $9,200 is still too cheap for his current production, making him an elite target and someone I will want in every two-center build, as well as lineups where I am fading Joel Embiid.
As for the Hawks, this is also a team to target even on the second leg of a back-to-back, as this could just cause the game to stay closer than the spread entails. The usual suspects (Trae Young, John Collins) get elite matchups and should be primary targets in cash games as well as tournaments, as they’ll likely carry a significant amount of ownership.
Cam Reddish and Bogdan Bogdanovic are also two viable value wings to fill your lineup with, as both are seeing elite playing time for their price and can produce more than enough to smash 5x value.
Toronto Raptors (-1.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans
Pace: TOR (T4th), NOP (28th)
Defensive efficiency: TOR (2nd), NOP (3rd)
Pascal Siakam is expected back after missing the last game for disciplinary measures, but this isn’t necessarily a spot that I want to target him, as he’ll have his hands full with both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. On top of that, his production has been rather volatile for his price, so I would rather look to both Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet. Of the two, VanVleet is the preferred option at a slight discount, especially after posting 47-plus DraftKings points in two of his last three games.
OG Anunoby is another intriguing piece on a five-game slate. His floor is low (3-4x), but his ceiling is sky-high for his price, as evident by his outburst for 44 DK points outburst against the Sixers two games ago. If you expect this game to get out of hand (I don’t), it makes sense to look to someone like Chris Boucher, who is already seeing 24-plus minutes in two of his last three games. That third game, however, only had him on the court for five minutes, showing that he’s still an incredibly risky option.
On the Pelicans side, we can continue to look to both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, with my preferred option here being Ingram for cash games. He was on pace for another 50-point DraftKings outing until a flagrant foul had him ejected in the third quarter, which also allowed his price to only rise $100 ahead of Saturday’s game. He leads the team in usage (29.8%) and per-minute production (1.31 FPPM), making him an elite play on a five-game slate and the top overall play on the Pelicans.
Williamson is also viable, but his volatility has shown a bit over the last two games. Still, his usage rate (27.9%) trails only Ingram on the team and he’s still averaging over a fantasy point per minute (1.06).
There’s merit to playing both Lonzo Ball (39-plus FanDuel points in two of last three games) and Eric Bledsoe ($4,600 on FanDuel), but they’re better left for tournaments, as their floor games could crush you on a five-game slate in cash.
