Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There is more playoff football on but there is also plenty of NBA action. We have six games on the DFS main slate this evening, with a couple of teams facing the possibility of being extremely short-handed. That will open up some value but will also make things a bit messy, too.
Let’s break it all down.
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -9.5; total: 222.5
The Nets are still a question mark for this game, as Kyrie Irving has been out for the last two games. He’s been away from the team with a personal matter and with Kevin Durant out over the last three games for health protocols, Caris LeVert has been running the show for the Nets. Over the last two games, LeVert is sporting a massive 36.4% usage rate, while averaging 86 touches per game during that span. He is also averaging 7.5 minutes of possession per game, while attempting 23 and 25 shots during that stretch. Irving is questionable again, while Durant is listed as probable. LeVert is still posting a 36.2% usage rate and 24% assist rate with Irving off the court this season, while averaging 1.46 fantasy points per minute. His price is up and it is possible he returns to a bench role if Durant is back but LeVert still has massive GPP upside if Irving remains out. Of course, if Irving plays, you cannot consider LeVert.
If Kyrie is out again, feel free to go to Durant, who is sporting a 38.6% usage rate and is averaging 1.74 fantasy points per minute in just under 20 minutes with Irving off the floor so far this season. It obviously isn’t a huge sample, but we know Durant is going to run the show if Irving is inactive. I also have no issue going back to Joe Harris at a fair $5,600 price tag on DraftKings. He is averaging a respectable 0.90 fantasy points per minute with Kyrie off the floor and is facing a Thunder defense that is coughing up 6.6 points per game off of screens this season, good for the second-most in the NBA. That bodes well for Harris, who is averaging a solid 2.2 points per game off screens so far this season (10th-most), while shooting 53% off the play type.
I haven’t been too interested in the Oklahoma City side so far this season, to be honest. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to do the heavy lifting for the Thunder, as he is averaging 80.4 touches per game (up from 60.0 in 2019) and 7.1 minutes of possession per game (up from 4.0 last season). He is also sporting a usage rate north of 27%, while his assist rate is flirting with the 20% mark. Darius Bazley has been a solid floor play so far this season due to his rebounding, as he’s averaging 8.8 boards per game. With Al Horford playing limited minutes, Bazley is averaging a team-high 13 rebounding chances per game on the year, while his 28% rebounding rate is also tied for the team-lead. The Nets, meanwhile, are allowing the fifth-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards on the season (12.09).
Denver Nuggets @ New York Knicks
DEN -6.5; total: 217.5
This is an interesting game, especially when you look at the two fantasy stars. Nikola Jokic is averaging 108.1 touches per game so far this season, the most in the NBA. He is also averaging 12.3 post-ups per game (second-most) and 19.5 rebound chances per game (seventh-most). Then there is Julius Randle, who ranks fifth in the NBA in touches per game (92.3), while ranking fifth in post-ups (8.6) and rebounding chances per game (20.3). So the usage and involvement between the two is very, very similar but Randle is $1,500 cheaper on DraftKings. And oh, by the way, Randle also has the safest projection for minutes, as he’s averaging 37.4 minutes per game on the young season, good for the second-most in all of basketball. Denver’s defense has not played well so far this season, while they also rank 28th against point forwards and 27th against superstars, which are two of Randle’s many archetypes, part of our advanced DVP tool. Meanwhile, RJ Barrett actually leads the NBA in minutes per game (38.8) and is perfectly in play at $6,900 on DraftKings. Austin Rivers would be my third option from this team, as he’s received 33, 32 and 32 minutes over his last three games, while he’s closed each of those contests. He also leads the team in spot-up points per game (4.8), shooting 64.3% off the play type. Denver, meanwhile, is allowing the fourth-most points per game to opposing spot-up shooters on the year (32.1).
That isn’t to say I don’t like Jokic, though. He’s been playing as well as anyone in the NBA thus far and gets a favorable matchup against a New York defense that is coughing up the fourth-most points per possession (1.10) and third-highest field goal percentage (58.6%) to the post this season, while Jokic’s 12.3 post-ups per game are the second-most in basketball. However, even with Michael Porter still sidelined, I don’t love the rest of this team. Will Barton continues to start but hasn’t been fantastic, averaging 0.87 fantasy points per minute with Porter off the floor. JaMychal Green has been getting more run with Porter out, while he’s sporting a 23% usage rate and 27% rebounding rate with Porter sidelined, while averaging over a fantasy point per minute.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
LAL -3.5; total: 230.5
Anthony Davis (hip) didn’t play in the Lakers’ last game and is listed as questionable for this contest. In that game against the Bulls, Markieff Morris got the start at power forward and played a healthy 29 minutes. Of course, his 13.8% usage rate left much to be desired but if Davis is out and Morris starts again, you could do worse at $3,700 on DraftKings. LeBron James, meanwhile, had a usage rate north of 35% against the Bulls, resulting in a strong game (28-7-7). Both LeBron and Davis are in play if they are active, but I have had a tough time getting away from Davis, especially when he’s under $10,000. Houston’s interior can be vulnerable, as they are allowing the third-most putback points per game this season (7.9), which would also bode well for Montrezl Harrell if Davis is ruled out again, as Harrell is averaging 3.4 points per game off putbacks, good for the fourth-most in the NBA. And with The Brow off the floor this season, Harrell has a 30% rebounding rate and is averaging right around a fantasy point per minute. The Rockets also rank dead last against rebounders this season, per our advanced DVP.
For the Rockets, James Harden is interesting because his price is down to $10,500 on DraftKings after three straight games of fewer than 46 fantasy points. Interestingly enough, when John Wall is on the floor for Houston, Harden is tied for third on the team with a 26.9% usage rate, while Christian Wood and DeMarcus Cousins are dominating the rebounding rate. Last year, the Rockets didn’t have a true center on the floor after they traded Clint Capela, allowing Harden to haul in a bunch of rebounds. As a result, his rebounding chances per game have dropped by three so far this season, which perhaps will hurt his overall ceiling if he isn’t recording monster triple-doubles. Harden is still averaging 88.5 touches per game, the seventh-most in basketball, but Wall is right behind him, averaging nearly 80 touches per game. The Lakers are allowing the fourth-highest field goal percentage off isolation this season at 47.6%, while Harden still leads the league in isolation points per game (7.8). However, don’t sleep on Wall, who is second in that department, averaging 5.2 such points per game. Finally, Wood has been incredible during his first season with the Rockets and is leading the NBA in points per game as the roll man (7.0). However, the Lakers are a top-five defense against the pick-and-roll and if Davis returns to the lineup, the matchup gets much tougher.
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
MIA -4.5; total: 212
Boston is in trouble here, as the Celtics have been hit with a ton of health protocols. Jayson Tatum is doubtful, Jaylen Brown is questionable, and Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams and Grant Williams are all out. Losing Tatum alone would be brutal, but it would be even worse if Brown is out, too, as the young duo have dominated the usage for this Celtics team this season. Tatum’s usage rate is 30.4% and Brown’s is at 28.4 percent, while Marcus Smart is the next closest player with a modest 17.1% usage rate. There haven’t been many minutes where both Tatum and Brown have been off the floor for Boston this season, but you have to imagine that Smart sees a huge uptick in ball-handling duties, especially with the Celtics already without Kemba Walker. The problem is that he has already been priced-up with the expectation that Boston will be short-handed for this game. There will be value to be had, especially if the Celtics have to deploy an eight-man rotation.
This game could get out of hand with Boston so depleted, taking me off the Heat for the most part. Bam Adebayo is awesome, but $8,800 is a steep price tag in this spot. Jimmy Butler has scored 46 and 59.5 fantasy points over his last two games, yet his price hasn’t moved, making him an interesting buy-low option in tournaments, though I really do worry about this game getting out of hand.
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
SAS -5; total: 234
Karl-Anthony Towns returned to the lineup last game after a six-game absence and was fantastic, scoring 24 points to go along with 13 rebounds, four assists and three blocks. Because he was dealing with a wrist injury, Towns wasn’t limited at all, logging 37 minutes. He also posted a solid 27.1% usage rate. At $9,800 against a Spurs team that ranks 30th against skilled centers and 28th against rim protectors, Towns shapes up as a really strong play again this evening.
For the Spurs, it was good to see LaMarcus Aldridge log 30-plus minutes in consecutive games, though the ceiling is still somewhat limited. $6,500 isn’t a terrible price tag, especially in a matchup with arguably the worst defense in the NBA. Minnesota ranks dead last in defensive rating so far this season, while no team in basketball is coughing up more post-up points per game on the year (7.9). That bodes well for Aldridge, who was second in the league in post-up points per game a season ago (5.6). I also really like Dejounte Murray, who is averaging 20.3 points and nine rebounds per game over his last three contests. Derrick White’s absence and Bryn Forbes departure has unlocked Murray’s true potential, while he’s logging consistent minutes. Because he contributes in so many different categories, Murray is averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute. He also leads the team in transition points per game (4.6), while the Timberwolves are coughing up the second-most transition points per game (24.1). Finally, because Aldridge hasn’t topped six rebounds in a game yet this year, rookie Keldon Johnson is soaking up plenty of boards, averaging 7.4 rebounds and 12 rebounding chances per game, as he’s playing a lot of power forward.
Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors
TOR -2.5; total: 230.5
After a somewhat slow start, Stephen Curry is playing at an MVP level as of late. It is difficult to not have interest in him right now, especially on a site like DraftKings, as he’s averaging 11.5 three-point attempts per game. Curry is also averaging 4.1 points per game off screens, good for the second-most in basketball. The Raptors are still a solid defensive unit, but they are allowing the third-highest field goal percentage in the league off of screens at 52.2%. Meanwhile, 48% of Curry’s shot attempts this season have come off non-corner threes, one of the higher rates in the league. That bodes well for him here, as the Raptors are surrendering a 40.6% field goal percentage off non-corner triples, the third-highest mark in the league. I also think Draymond Green could be worth a look here, as his price has dropped all the way to $4,900 on DraftKings. He hasn’t had great fantasy games just yet, but he still has a team-high 20% assist rate and after missing some time to start the year, Green has logged over 30 minutes in each of the last two games. Finally, Andrew Wiggins (quad) is questionable to play in this game. If he sits, Damion Lee, who has logged at least 20 minutes in three straight games, could be worth a look as a value play. He sees a 3% usage bump with Wiggins off the floor this season, while averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute.
Pascal Siakam has put together back-to-back great games, going for 50-plus fantasy points in both. Sure, his 12-assist performance last time out may be a bit of an outlier, but I still have some interest in Siakam here, especially under $8,000. The Warriors defense is one we can attack and while the matchup isn’t as favorable with Draymond back, Golden State is still coughing up the fifth-most isolation points per game this season (7.3), while Siakam is averaging three points per game off the play type, while sporting a strong 15.1% frequency rate. Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are going to play huge minutes in any close game, keeping them on the radar seemingly at all times. Chris Boucher is so intriguing because he’s insanely efficient, averaging a team-high 1.38 fantasy points per minute. And his per-36 numbers are staggering, as he’s averaging 23.4 points, 10.4 rebounds and 3.7 blocks per game. With the Warriors not playing a traditional center very often, this seems like a spot where Boucher could once again play 25-30 minutes, which is all he needs.
