Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Unlike most Monday slates, the NBA DFS slate we have on February 22 is a rather light six-game slate that lacks truly attractive game environments. This could lead to a lower scoring slate and makes it even more important to accurately identify which studs to prioritize and which value plays appear safer than others.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker. If at the time of writing, there is no published total for a game on the Odds Tracker, you will see “total: n/a” under the game.
(Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!)
Chicago Bulls @ Houston Rockets
HOU -1, total: n/a
The Rockets are expected to be without both Victor Oladipo and Christian Wood for yet another game while DeMarcus Cousins remains questionable. In these situations, John Wall has been a one-man show this season, posting a 36.1% usage rate, 38.3% assist rate and 1.25 DKP/min. At $8,000, he’s a phenomenal point-per-dollar target. While Cousins could siphon some usage, the chance that he sees 18 minutes with a floor game is just as high as the chance that he sees 33 minutes with a ceiling game, making him far too volatile for my taste, even on a six-game slate. If you want a center against the Bulls, PJ Tucker has some merit at near-minimum-price given the weak interior of the Bulls.
Outside of Wall, it’s hard to buy into these ancillary pieces outside of Eric Gordon, who has a 27% usage rate with the aforementioned two players out. Jae'Sean Tate should continue to log heavy minutes and given the power forward eligibility, he’s viable at an ugly position, but he’s priced up at a dangerous level given his volatility.
For the Bulls, there are really only two players that pique my interest in this game; Zach LaVine and Thaddeus Young. LaVine has been a man amongst boys over the last two weeks, averaging 34.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists on the back of a 36.4% usage rate. Given these rates alone, he’s an elite option.
Thad Young should garner little-to-no ownership on this slate, but if you’re scripting this game with DeMarcus Cousins out or playing minimally, it would make sense to get exposure to Young. With this being the case, we’d see a higher chance of getting a ton of PJ Tucker at the five, which would lead to Chicago running more small-ball lineups, where Young typically slots in at the center position with Lauri Markkanen out.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -4.5, total: n/a
Luka Doncic checks in as the highest-priced player on the slate and his $11,400 price tag may be the highest price we’ve seen all season. His recent form has been immaculate, topping 60 DK points in four of his last five games, with two going over 70 and one going over 80. The question, however, is whether or not you need him on this slate, especially with LeBron James for $1,000 cheaper in a far more appealing matchup. I will not argue with those rostering Doncic, especially for the sake of ownership leverage, but I will lean towards the Lakers’ star.
The same logic can be applied to Kristaps Porzingis, whose $8,500 price is reasonable, but the lack of necessity is real. The real appeal to Porzingis is the lack of depth at the power forward position. This makes him incredibly enticing on FanDuel (especially at $7,800), where he’s only $1,200 more than the likes of Jae’Sean Tate. Outside of these two, however, the ancillary pieces haven’t produced enough on a per-dollar basis to really warrant consideration in a rather middling matchup.
For the Grizzlies, it’s hard not to love Jonas Valanciunas in this matchup, especially at only $7,200 on DraftKings. On the season, the Mavs are allowing the second-highest field-goal percentage among all teams in the restricted area while ranking 23rd against rebounders and 27th against skilled centers, per advanced DvP. While he’s my top overall Memphis option, you can still get away with Ja Morant at his price, as he should see 32+ minutes as long as the game doesn’t get out of hand.
With Dillon Brooks out, we can go right back to the well with Desmond Bane at his sub-$4,000 price tag and hope for lower ownership after a dud against the Suns. The return of Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clarke ding his upside a bit, but he should still be in line for 25-27 minutes for a cheap tag. Brooks’ absence should also open up more shots for both Clarke and Anderson, making them fine mid-tier options.
Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder
MIA -5, total: n/a
Jimmy Butler has been playing like a man possessed lately, as his down game last game still resulted in 24 points, eight rebounds and five assists. Prior to that game, he had posted three consecutive triple-doubles. While the Thunder are not a pace-up team, this is still a cheap enough price tag to target Butler given his recent form, regardless of the game environment.
The same can be said for Bam Adebayo at sub-$9,000, as the weak interior of the Thunder stands no chance against Adebayo. With Tyler Herro listed as questionable, we could also see an expanded role for Kendrick Nunn, who has already been starting for the injured Goran Dragic and has seen 40+ minutes in two of his last three games. Given his volume-heavy playstyle, Nunn would be a great GPP play if Herro sits out.
On the side of the Thunder, the one and only play that I have some marginal interest in is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. While his price tag in the mid-$8,000 range forces you to make some roster decisions, using him to differentiate your lineup provides a nice amount of upside at low ownership, given his 27.9% usage rate ane 32.1% assist rate.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -6, total: 229.5
Damian Lillard is riding the All-Star-starter-snub narrative, posting 66 DraftKings points in his first game after the announcement. While the Wizards are a much more liberal defense than the Suns, he still carries enough upside to warrant the matchup-proof designation, as he’s topped 60 DK points in three straight games. He’s up there with Luka Doncic in terms of salary at the guard position but makes for an elite tournament play given the lack of projected ownership.
If you are scripting this game where Chris Paul locks down Lillard and forces a floor game, it’d make sense to have interest in Gary Trent, who’s locked into heavy minutes and has attempted at least 12 shots in each of his last 10 games. He’d be the most likely player to pick up the slack if Lillard struggles. Enes Kanter would also be a viable candidate and he should continue to get a heap of rebounding opportunities against a more traditional center in Deandre Ayton, which is just the type of matchup that Kanter is usable in.
Because of how thin the power forward position is on this slate, you can get away with playing Robert Covington (specifically on DraftKings, as he’s too expensive on FanDuel) or Derrick Jones Jr. Both are locked into heavy minutes and carry enough peripheral upside to get there at a thin position at their respective prices.
For the Suns, Chris Paul may be one of the safest cash-game plays on the slate. His sub-$8,000 price tag leaves enough room for a nice per-dollar ceiling and his matchup with Damian Lillard (73rd out of 85 qualified point guards in defensive real plus/minus this season) leaves room for upside on both ends of the court.
Both Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton are viable, but they typically don’t co-record ceiling games in the same game. In this specific game, I prefer to target Ayton against a traditional center that should keep him busy around the rim in Enes Kanter. With the two centers being only $100 apart, I prefer the incremental savings on Ayton. You can also get away with Mikal Bridges given the peripheral upside, especially on FanDuel at a thin small-forward position given the scoring structure that favors stocks.
Charlotte Hornets @ Utah Jazz
UTA -12.5, total: 228.5
The Jazz have been the best team in the NBA over the better part of the season, making this a game that could very well get out of hand. With that said, this is still an enticing matchup regardless of blowout potential.
Rudy Gobert is my favorite option at $7,400, as the Hornets rank 25th against both rim protectors and rebounders, while Gobert carries legitimate 20-20 upside in the right matchup, with this being one. Donovan Mitchell is still viable at $8,700 even with Mike Conley back, but expect an incremental drop in touches as he’ll play a lot less point guard now that he’ll slide back to the shooting guard position. If you’re scripting for a Jazz blowout here, Jordan Clarkson at $6,100 makes some sense as a high-usage player off of the bench that should lead the second-unit in a blowout.
Since the power forward position is so thin, Royce O'Neale is firmly in play at $4,500, especially given the fact that he’s topped 25 DraftKings points in three of his last four games while failing to drop being 32 minutes in any game since February 4.
For the Hornets, Devonte' Graham is expected to miss yet another game, which should continue to open up volume and minutes for Terry Rozier. While his production has justified his price-hike, this is a spot where I’m OK getting off the train, as his efficiency over the last five games is a far cry from what we’ve become accustomed to over his career, and this is a brutal matchup to bank on at $8,100.
I have more interest in both LaMelo Ball ($8,800) and Gordon Hayward ($7,100, revenge spot!), but neither are must-plays in a very difficult matchup. If you’re scripting this game to get out of hand, there could be merit to playing Malik Monk if you’re assuming he gets blowout run.
Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -6.5, total: 226
The Wizards have been playing better basketball as of late but have still allowed 119.1 points per game over the course of the season, giving the short-handed Lakers team some respectable upside.
This vaults LeBron James to the top of my priority list, as he not only comes in cheaper than both Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard, but he also carries a 34.4% usage rate, 41.8% assist rate, and 1.46 DKP/min clip with both Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder out this season. He’s my top overall spend-up of the slate in one of the best matchups a star can ask for.
Outside of James, there’s reasons to consider both Kyle Kuzma ($6,700 on DraftKings, 21.2% usage rate with Schroder and Davis out) and Montrezl Harrell ($5,800 on DraftKings, 1.04 DKP/min with Schroder and Davis out) given the matchups, but based on both price and volatility, they’re better left for tournaments.
If looking for deep value here, Talen Horton-Tucker would be my value of choice with Schroder out. While his minutes have been volatile (25, 6, 28, 17 over his last four games), he has the potential to see blowout run (if it gets to that point) and benefits from a strong matchup given his point-per-minute upside.
For the WIzards, this matchup is difficult, but not as much with Davis and Schroder out, as the Lakers see negative changes in just about all of their rates without these players this season. This puts both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal firmly in play, with the edge going to Westbrook. There are multiple reasons for this, despite Beal holding the highest usage rate and leading the NBA in scoring, as Westbrook is incrementally cheaper on FanDuel and possesses double-double and triple-double-bonus upside on DraftKings. Additionally, there’s a better chance that Beal deals with more Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and James on defense, which, while not a massive deterrant, could be enough to separate the two in terms of priority.
Outside of those two, however, none of the Wizards role players have safe enough floors or high enough ceilings to warrant consideration in a relatively ugly game environment.
