Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NBA Finals march on, with Game 3 between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets Wednesday. The Heat did what they set out to do and stole Game 2 in Denver. The Nuggets looked dominant in Game 1, but the Heat are a team that fights and claws to win games. They get the added benefit of traveling back home to sunny Miami for Game 3.
The spread is only -2.5 points for this one. It makes sense as the Celtics were around the same 8-point favorites at home as the Nuggets and 2.5-point favorites on the road when they traveled to Miami. Our NBA Betting Model does not have a major edge on the side or total in this game. We do have a few edges in our FTNBets NBA player prop model and that is where I found my three best bets for Game 3 of the NBA Finals.
Best NBA Finals Points Prop Bet
Caleb Martin Over 8.5 Points
The unsung hero of the Celtics series has had a rough start to the finals. Caleb Martin missed practice between Games 1 and 2 due to illness. He’s played like a man not feeling his best in either of those games. After logging nearly 40 minutes per game to end the Boston series, Martin has barely played half the game in this series. The illness was a major factor. The teams had a few days between games and Martin is now back at home in Miami for Game 3. I would not be shocked if he rejoined the starting lineup and do expect him to get closer to 30 minutes than 20. If he is feeling better, the production should jump up as well. The main reason we like this is the low number. Martin’s Boston series had him coming into the Denver matchup with a points prop of 15.5. It’s down to 8.5 now. I’m buying low on that number and expecting a bounce back to solid production. I’m not expecting 40 minutes and 20-plus points like he had against Boston, but he can get 9 points easily for us if he gets near 30 minutes.
Best NBA Finals Rebound Prop Bet
Michael Porter Over 7.5 Rebounds
Michael Porter had a dismal Game 2. His minutes dropped, his production was horrendous, and it was a major reason the Nuggets lost. I expect a bounceback game for him here. Porter had been a rebounding machine the last series, averaging just shy of 10 and racking up three double-doubles. He had 13 in the first game before only grabbing 6 last time out. He played just 26 minutes in Game 2, which contributed to him missing his over for the first time in the last two series. Porter had averaged ten rebounds per game over his last five before that disappointing performance, so we can excuse one bad game with a lower-than-normal minutes total. If he jumps back into the 35-minute range he had been playing, we should catch another over.
Best NBA Finals 3-Point Prop Bet
Max Strus Under 2.5 Made 3-Pointers
Max Strus had a great Game 2, knocking down four 3-pointers. He took 10 of them in that game, and it was the first time since Game 1 against the Celtics that he drilled more than two. This same prop is as high as -200 on most other books. Strus can definitely get hot, but the under on this number is moving on every book. That gives me confidence that what I am seeing is not a mirage. Others realize expecting him to keep knocking down a ton of shots from deep, especially when he’s only playing a little over half the game is foolish. No knock on Strus here, but the reality is that he’s unlikely to keep lighting it up from deep. The Nuggets will also play him tighter after he lit them up last time out.
