Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the NBA season set to (finally!) start at the end of July, the FTN team is breaking down every division with an eye toward DFS possibilities, ways to approach using each team and best strategies.
Today, the Southwest Division. From the Southwest we actually have all five teams in Orlando for the restart, and they are some pretty interesting teams in terms of DFS; Spurs, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Mavericks and the Rockets.
Dallas Mavericks
Coach: Rick Carlisle
Record: 40-27, seventh in the West
Projected finish: 44-31
Players not in bubble: Dwight Powell and Courtney Lee because of injury, Willie Cauley-Stein has opted out of the restart.
Projected starters: Luka Doncic, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis
Bench: Delon Wright, Maxi Kleber, Justin Jackson, Boban Marjanovic, J.J. Barea, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Trey Burke, Antonius Cleveland, Josh Reaves.
Pace: 101.4, 18th in the NBA
Defensive efficiency rating: 108.3, 17th in the NBA
Offensive efficiency rating: 113.8, first in the NBA
Schedule: Rockets, Suns, Kings, Clippers, Bucks, Jazz, Blazers, Suns
The Mavs are one of the most exciting teams in the NBA from a DFS perspective, as you can tell from their offensive rating during the 2019-20 season so far. Obviously, Doncic is one of the most exciting young players in the NBA and equally exciting for DFS, producing a fantasy-point-per-minute rate of nearly 1.6 and a sage rate of 31.2%. Porzingis is also another stellar DFS player, with a FPPM of over 1.3. The center situation is one to monitor, with both Powell and Cauley-Stein being absent from the bubble, guys like Kleber and DFS darling Marjanovic could be in line for more minutes.
Houston Rockets
Coach: Mike D’Antoni
Record: 40-24, sixth in the West
Projected finish: 45-27
Players not in bubble: N/A
Projected starters: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Bench: Eric Gordon (out for the first 1-2 weeks of restart), Tyson Chandler, Austin Rivers, Bruno Caboclo, DeMarre Carroll, Chris Clemons, Michael Frazier, Jeff Green, Ben McLemore, Luc Mbah a Moute
Pace: 105.9, third in the NBA
Defensive efficiency: 107.5, 14th in the NBA
Offensive efficiency: 111, second in the NBA
Schedule: Mavs, Bucks, Blazers, Lakers, Kings, Spurs, Pacers, 76ers
The Rockets are a very key component to the DFS landscape as they play at an extremely fast pace, and have two of the better fantasy producers we have seen in recent years in Westbrook and Harden. Westbrook tested positive for COVID-19 but is expected to be ready for game one of the restart.
Memphis Grizzlies
Coach: Taylor Jenkins
Record: 32-33, eighth in West
Projected finish: 34-39
Players not in bubble: Justise Winslow (injury)
Projected starters: Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Jaren Jackson Jr. Jonas Valanciunas
Bench: Grayson Allen, Tyus Jones, Marko Guduric, Josh Jackson, Jontay Porter, Anthony Tolliver, Yuta Watanabe, John Konchar, Brandon Clarke, Gorgui Dieng
Pace: 105.2, seventh in NBA
Defensive efficiency: 107.7, 15th in NBA
Offensive efficiency: 106.1, 20th in NBA
Schedule: Blazers, Spurs, Pelicans, Jazz, Thunder, Raptors, Celtics, Bucks
One of the more exciting younger teams in the league made the restart, and they will have to fight of the teams behind them to hold onto the eighth playoff spot. The Grizzlies are typically a fantastic matchup for DFS purposes, they play fast, and their team is in the middle of the pack in defensive rating. Morant is the favorite for ROY and I expect him to have a big restart as he will be looked to by this Grizzlies team to carry them into the playoffs.
New Orleans Pelicans
Coach: Alvin Gentry
Record: 28-36, 10th in the West
Projected finish: 33-39
Players not in bubble: Darius Miller
Projected starters: Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Derrick Favors
Bench: Josh Hart, Jaxson Hayes, Frank Jackson, Nicolo Melli, E'Twaun Moore, Jahlil Okafor, JJ Redick, Kenrich Williams, Zylan Cheatham, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Pace: 106.4, second in the NBA
Defensive efficiency: 108.9, 19th in the NBA
Offensive efficiency: 108.2, 16th in the NBA
Schedule: Jazz, Clippers, Grizzlies, Kings, Wizards, Spurs, Kings, Magic
The season has not gone the way the Pelicans envisioned when trading Anthony Davis for Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram and drafting Zion with the No. 1 overall pick. Williamson was forced to miss the first few months of the year, but this team still showed promise. The come in with a sizable deficit to overcome in order to make playoffs, but it will be a competitive stretch of games for these bubble teams. The Pelicans are another team that make for great DFS matchups with them being second in pace, the fantasy points are typically not hard to come by in their games.
San Antonio Spurs
Coach: Gregg Popovich
Record: 27-36, 12th in the West
Projected finish: 29-42
Players not in bubble: LaMarcus Aldridge, Trey Lyles
Projected starters: Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, DeMar DeRozan, Lonnie Walker/Rudy Gay, Jakob Poeltl
Bench: Keldon Johnson, Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills, Tyler Zeller, Chimezie Metu, Luka Samanic, Marco Belinelli, Drew Eubanks, Daulton Hommes, Dedric Lawson, Quinndary Weatherspoon
Pace: 102, 15th in the NBA
Defensive efficiency: 111.1, 26th in NBA
Offensive efficiency: 109.9, ninth in the NBA
Schedule: Kings, Grizzlies, 76ers, Nuggets, Jazz, Pelicans, Rockets, Jazz
While the Spurs are easily the most “boring” team in this division from a DFS perspective, they could provide a couple interesting talking points for the restart. First, I am interested to see how Popovich goes about this restart. They are not out of the playoffs by any means, but it is an uphill battle. With the deeper rosters we could see Popovich do some crazy things. Second, with no Aldridge or Lyles, if the Spurs keep a normal rotation, we could have some guys with nice boosts in production that might go overlooked, because like I mentioned, this team is pretty boring compared to the others in the restart.
Overall, this division is one of the most important from a DFS perspective, as most of the teams will be in key DFS games due to superstar players, bad defense, fast pace offense, or injuries. This is definitely a division to monitor as we get back into the swing of things for NBA DFS.
