NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/4)

We close out the NBA week with a healthy nine-game DFS slate around the league. Be sure to keep an eye on the news throughout the day, especially in Toronto (again).

Check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 4 | NBA DFS First Look

Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons

IND -2.5, total: 227.5
Pace: IND (18th), DET (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Chris Duarte (toe) is listed as questionable for Indiana, while Lance Stephenson is probable. Goga Bitadze (foot) is also listed as questionable. 
• Marvin Bagley (ankle) did not play on Thursday and will likely be listed as questionable again for Friday.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -7.5, total: 217
Pace: CLE (26th), PHI (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo will remain sidelined for Cleveland. Darius Garland (back) is off the injury report.

Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards

ATL -4.5, total: 223.5
Pace: ATL (20th), WAS (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• John Collins (foot) hasn’t played since Feb. 11. Meanwhile, Onyeka Okongwu is in the concussion protocol. 
• Once again, Kristaps Porzingis will not make his Washington debut.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls

MIL -4.5, total: 240.5
Pace: MIL (8th), CHI (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• This is the second end of a back-to-back for both teams.

Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -8.5, total: 220.5
Pace: ORL (10th), TOR (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• OG Anunoby will miss the next two weeks. Meanwhile, Fred VanVleet has been questionable ahead of the last few games. Thaddeus Young (illness) is questionable.
• Markelle Fultz will not play for the Magic. Wendell Carter (illness) is questionable.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder

MIN -9.5, total: 229.5
Pace: MIN (2nd), OKC (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Anthony Edwards will miss his second consecutive game for Minnesota. Jarred Vanderbilt (quad) is listed as questionable.
• Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort, Kenrich Williams and Ty Jerome are all once again out for this game.

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans

UTA -4.5, total: 224.5
Pace: UTA (19th), NOP (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -13.5, total: 235.5
Pace: HOU (1st), DEN (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Both Dennis Schroder and Eric Gordon are listed as questionable for the Rockets.

New York Knicks @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -7, total: 223.5
Pace: NYK (27th), PHX (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• Devin Booker is in the health and safety protocols and will miss Friday’s contest. 

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Towns is already in one of the best matchups possible, but with Anthony Edwards out and Jarred Vanderbilt questionable, more opportunities will be heading his way. Towns attempted 22 field goals with Edwards sidelined last game and with Edwards off the floor over the course of the season, Towns’ usage rate climbs by 5.4%, putting him at a massive 33% usage rate in the split. He is also averaging 1.48 fantasy points per minute with Edwards off the court and now he faces a Thunder team that is coughing up the third-most points per possession (1.01) and the highest field goal percentage (56.2%) to the post this season. Towns, meanwhile, is averaging 3.1 post-up points per game on the year and with Edwards out last game, KAT posted up a healthy 10 times.

Clint Capela vs. Washington Wizards

Assuming both John Collins and Onyeka Okongwu remain sidelined, I really like Capela Friday. For starters, after a stretch of playing around 25 minutes, Capela has now logged 30 and 33 minutes over his last two games. And with Collins off the floor this season, Capela is sporting a 46% rebounding rate, while averaging a solid 1.12 fantasy points per minute. Look for him to find success against a Wizards team that is allowing the second-most points per possession (1.22) and third-worst field goal percentage (57.3%) to opposing roll men out of the pick-and-roll. Washington is also coughing up the sixth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers (16.18).

Malcolm Brogdon vs. Detroit Pistons

Brogdon is coming off a huge game, reminding everyone how good he can be when healthy. He scored over 65 fantasy points in 41 minutes, and you can make the case that he is still a bit underpriced, despite the fact that Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield are in town. Brogdon is still sporting a 21.4% usage rate, 20% rebounding rate and 17% assist rate when on the floor alongside Haliburton. Lance Stephenson is probable but if Chris Duarte is out again, Brogdon’s minutes should remain solidified. A matchup with Detroit is very strong, as the Pistons are allowing a league-worst 0.98 points per possession to opposing ball handlers out of the pick-and-roll this season, as well as the second-highest field goal percentage off the play type (46.6%).

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Malik Beasley vs. OKC — Beasley can be difficult to trust, but with Anthony Edwards out, he has to be worth a look, especially at just $3,200 on DraftKings. He played 28 minutes with Edwards out last game, scoring 33 fantasy points. He is sporting a healthy 22.7% usage rate with Edwards off the floor this season.

Mo Bamba vs. TOR — Bamba is more of a mid-range value play but he’s viable regardless of the status of Wendell Carter. He’s been much better lately, but if Carter sits, it’ll be tough to get away from Bamba, who is sporting a 32% rebounding rate with WCJ off the floor, while averaging nearly 1.20 fantasy points per minute in the split.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Lonnie Walker (39.5)
Cade Cunningham (53.5)
Max Strus (33.75)
Al Horford (53.75)
Bam Adebayo (56.25)
Reggie Jackson (64.0)
Caleb Martin (38.25)
De’Aaron Fox (56.0)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Reggie Jackson (62.1)
Trae Young (62.1)
Cade Cunningham (51.9)
Luka Doncic (66.5)
Tyler Herro (45.8)
Caleb Martin (39.0)
Dwight Powell (28.6)
Kyle Anderson (36.0)
Al Horford (50.5)