Week 14 DVOA NFL Picks
Aaron Schatz
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will come every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
Malik Beasley, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves (@ OKC)
Malik Beasley has averaged 57.3% more DraftKings points per game in games with Anthony Edwards inactive versus games with Edwards active this season
Beating the same drum as the last slate that Minnesota played, Beasley is firmly in play as an elite value option in the absence of Anthony Edwards. He played 28 minutes off the bench last game against the Warriors without Edwards, supplying 20 points on 7-11 shooting (6-9 from three) with four rebounds and a pair of assists. This is right in line with his season averages over seven games without Edwards this year (20.00 points, 4.29 rebounds, 2.43 assists per game). He sees nearly a 3% bump in usage rate (23.14%) and has averaged over 35 minutes per game in this scenario. Against a Thunder team with no defensive strengths, Beasley is the top value of the slate at only $3,200 on DraftKings.
Darius Garland, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (@ PHI)
Over his last five games, Darius Garland ranks fifth in the NBA in touches per game (90.5)
Garland didn’t seem to miss a beat in his return from injury last game, totaling 33 points in 33 minutes, his second consecutive game with at least 30 points. With the injuries to both Rajon Rondo and Caris LeVert, Garland will continue to absorb just about all the backcourt touches as he has over his last five games. He’s averaged more touches per game over that span than the likes of James Harden, Steph Curry and LeBron James, falling below 27 raw points only once while adding at least 10 combined rebounds and assists in three of those five games. He’s also ranked 5th in the entire NBA in usage rate (38.4%) over that span. His opponent tonight is not an easy one, but for $7,900, it’s hard to argue with the elite level of volume that he is seeing.
Mo Bamba, C, Orlando Magic (@ TOR)
In 529.9 minutes with Wendell Carter off the court this season, Mo Bamba has seen the largest jump in usage rate (+3.1%) on the Magic
Bamba has been hard to predict this season, as his production and volume have gone from some extreme highs to some extreme lows. Lately, however, things seem to be stabilizing. He’s seen at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games, averaging over a fantasy point per minute with 17.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and one block per game. His matchup tonight isn’t a spectacular one, but Wendell Carter is in danger of missing the game and the Raptors are playing their sixth game in seven days, potentially easing the difficulty of Bamva’s matchup. For $5,200, Bamba is a strong play if Carter plays, but a downright elite one if he sits out.
Scottie Barnes, SF/PF, Toronto Raptors (vs. ORL)
Scottie Barnes has averaged 15.61 points, 8.24 rebounds, 3.58 assists and 2.81 stocks per 36 minutes with both Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby off of the court this season