Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article for that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for March 19 | NBA DFS First Look
Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -1.5, total: 223.5
Pace: DAL (30th), CHA (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Spencer Dinwiddie has been ruled out for injury management, while Reggie Bullock may miss his third consecutive game for personal reasons for the Mavs.
- Gordon Hayward remains out for the Hornets.
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -6.5, total: 216.5
Pace: DET (16th), CLE (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Cade Cunningham and Killian Hayes are questionable for the Pistons while Hamidou Diallo has been ruled out.
- Dean Wade and Jarrett Allen remain out for the Cavs. while Rajon Rondo is listed as questionable.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Washington Wizards
WAS -2.5, total: 228.5
Pace: LAL (6th), WAS (23rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Davis remains out for the Lakers while Carmelo Anthony and Talen Horton-Tucker are listed as questionable.
- Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable after playing last night on the first leg of a back-to-back for the Wizards.
Matchup to Target | NBA DFS First Look
Below is my favorite matchup to target Saturday.
Luka Doncic vs. Charlotte Hornets
This feels like a bit of a cop-out given the fact that Luka is always a top play on the slate day-in and day-out, but this is such a juicy matchup that I can’t pass him up. The Hornets rank 21st or worse against five of Doncic’s six player traits (illustrated above per aDvP) and he should get yet another boost with Dinwiddie sidelined. He’s posted a 41.0% usage rate with Dinwiddie off the floor this season, averaging 61.07 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. In a game against an opponent that is top-three in pace yet in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating, Doncic should be set to explode.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate are listed below for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Luka Doncic ($11,800)
- LeBron James ($11,400)
- Darius Garland ($9,100)
- LaMelo Ball ($8,800)
- Russell Westbrook ($8,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Luka Doncic ($10,900)
- LeBron James ($10,700)
- Darius Garland ($8,500)
- LaMelo Ball ($8,300)
- Evan Mobley ($7,900)
With Saturday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Friday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, which is exactly what we’ll do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on DraftKings from Friday’s slate:
- PG: Russell Westbrook (54.5)
- SG: Delon Wright (44.5)
- SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic (45.0)
- PF: Lauri Markkanen (60.0)
- C: Christian Wood (68.25)
- G: Jared Butler (39.25)
- F: Scottie Barnes (64.25)
- UTIL: Domantas Sabonis (66.5)
- Total: 442.0
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel from Friday’s slate:
- PG: Brandon Williams (48.7)
- PG: Russell Westbrook (48.0)
- SG: Darius Garland (51.8)
- SG: Delon Wright (47.6)
- SF: Scottie Barnes (61.4)
- SF: Lauri Markkanen (58.5)
- PF: Christian Wood (66.1)
- PF: Domantas Sabonis (63.5)
- C: Goga Bitadze (49.3)
- Total: 494.9
A 12-game slate caused the roster percentages to be rather spread out across both sites, with Delon Wright being arguably the only overwhelmingly chalky player on DraftKings. He posted over 10x value in the absence of Trae Young and frankly, made it difficult to cash without him. The rest of the slate was wide open, as Jared Butler was the Jazz guard to target contrary to the belief in Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. It was then ROY-candidate Scottie Barnes, Lauri Markkanen and Christian Wood who came in under-rostered and made a difference with their ceiling games.
