Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
After a very, very light two-game NBA DFS slate Thursday, we return to the massive slates with 10 NBA contests Friday. Be sure to keep an eye on news throughout the day, though we already have a clear team to target.
Check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.
NBA Vegas Data for March 11 | NBA DFS First Look
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic
MIN -7.5, total: 235.5
Pace: MIN (2nd), ORL (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Edwards and Jarred Vanderbilt are listed as questionable for Minnesota.
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
BOS -13.5, total: 215.5
Pace: DET (11th), BOS (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Isaiah Stewart, Killian Hayes, Hamidou Diallo and Frank Jackson have all been ruled out for Detroit.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -5.5, total: 229
Pace: LAC (13th), ATL (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Robert Covington will remain out due to personal reasons.
Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets
DAL -10.5, total: 225
Pace: DAL (29th), HOU (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Christian Wood (illness) is listed as questionable. Meanwhile, both Dennis Schroder and Jae’Sean Tate are also questionable to play.
- For Dallas, Jalen Brunson (thigh) is listed as questionable. Dorian Finney-Smith (arm) is also questionable to play.
New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -9.5, total: 228.5
Pace: NYK (26th), MEM (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- Dillon Brooks (ankle) is listed as doubtful for Memphis.
- Nerlens Noel has been ruled out.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat
MIA -6, total: 211
Pace: CLE (26th), MIA (28th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert will remain sidelined for Cleveland.
- For Miami, Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable with an illness.
Charlotte Hornets @ New Orleans Pelicans
CHA -2.5, total: 226.5
Pace: CHA (3rd), NOP (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- The Pelicans will be without both Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum for this game.
Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs
UTA -5.5, total: 229
Pace: UTA (19th), SAS (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bojan Bogdanovic has been ruled out with a leg injury.
- Joshua Primo has been ruled out with an illness for San Antonio.
Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns
PHX -5, total: 222.5
Pace: TOR (25th), PHX (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- Cameron Johnson and Chris Paul will remain sidelined for Phoenix, while Devin Booker is back.
- For Toronto, Malachi Flynn and OG Anunoby will be out.
Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -4, total: 231
Pace: WAS (22nd), LAL (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- LeBron James and Talen Horton-Tucker are listed as questionable for Los Angeles.
Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look
Devonte’ Graham vs. Charlotte Hornets
Graham gets a revenge game against Charlotte with much more usage headed his way. The Pelicans will be without both Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, which makes Graham a fairly easy play on this slate. Even when he’s been in good spots with more usage, Graham hasn’t always shown the greatest ceiling. Fortunately, he is only $4,300 on DraftKings, which means we don’t need 35-40 fantasy points, though that is firmly in play against the Hornets. With both Ingram and McCollum off the floor over the last two weeks, Graham is sporting a 24.5% usage rate, while also sporting an insane 26% assist rate. He is also averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute in the split and now faces an awful Charlotte team that is allowing 8.5 assists per game to opposing point guards this season.
Jaylen Brown vs. Detroit Pistons
The Celtics are massive favorites here, but the Pistons have quietly been playing good basketball lately. And at home, I think they can keep this game close enough for long enough. Brown is only $8,200 on DraftKings, which is very enticing. He has underwhelmed in three meetings against the Pistons, but the matchup is still so good, as Detroit is coughing up the second-most points per possession to opposing spot-up shooters this season (1.06), as well as the worst field goal percentage off the play type (41.0%). Brown, meanwhile, is averaging 6.7 spot-up points per game on the year, good for the third-most in the NBA, while his 6.1 such possessions per game are the second-most in basketball.
Donovan Mitchell vs. San Antonio Spurs
Mitchell is coming off consecutive underwhelming games, though the last contest was a blowout and he only played 24 minutes. I absolutely love him today against a San Antonio team that is allowing the fourth-most real points per game to opposing point guards (24.24), as well as the eighth-most points per game to the shooting guard position. San Antonio is also coughing up the second-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick-and-roll (19.7), which bodes extremely well for Mitchell, who is averaging 12.6 points per game as the primary ball handler out of the pick-and-roll. Only Trae Young is averaging more points per game out of the play type this season, while Mitchell is also averaging 1.05 points per possession.
Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Jose Alvarado vs. CHA — While Devonte’ Graham is certainly the preferred play, you can still look to Alvarado at just $3,100 on DraftKings. He is sporting a healthy 19% assist rate with Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum off the floor over the last two weeks, while averaging a solid 0.91 fantasy points per minute during that stretch.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
DraftKings optimal lineup
Kyrie Irving (42.5)
Jordan Poole (38.75)
Seth Curry (41.25)
Georges Niang (20.25)
Nic Claxton (30.0)
Stephen Curry (55.25)
James Johnson (35.75)
Kevin Durant (59.5)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Monte Morris (28.5)
Stephen Curry (53.3)
Jordan Poole (35.5)
Seth Curry (44.2)
Kevin Durant (56.3)
James Johnson (39.1)
Nic Claxton (33.6)
Kevon Looney (27.9)
Nikola Jokic (51.9)
