NBA DFS Preview - First Look (2/6)

There’s basketball all afternoon on Sunday, but we’ll focus on the five-game main slate here. There isn’t a ton of value at the moment but we’re still waiting on some news, so be sure to pay attention throughout the day.

Make sure that you also check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -5.5, total: 217

Pace: IND (17th), CLE (24th)

Situations to monitor:

Darius Garland (back) is listed as questionable for the Cavaliers.
For the Pacers, Domantas Sabonis and Goga Bitadze are listed as questionable. Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) is also questionable but would likely be on a minutes limit if active.

Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -2.5, total: 220

Pace: ATL (17th), DAL (28th)

Situations to monitor:

John Collins is listed as questionable with a heel injury. Danilo Gallinari (hamstring) is also listed as questionable.
Kristaps Porzingis will remain out for Dallas, while Maxi Kleber is listed as questionable.

Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic

BOS -9.5, total: 215

Pace: BOS (23rd), ORL (16th)

Situations to monitor:

Orlando listed Mo Bamba as questionable

New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets

NOP -5, total: 231

Pace: NOP (19th), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

Josh Hart is listed as questionable for the Pelicans, while Willy Hernangomez remains in the health and safety protocols.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Clippers

MIL -5, total: 228

Pace: MIL (12th), LAC (11th)

Situations to monitor:

This is the second game of a back-to-back for Milwaukee, so keep an eye out for some potential rest news.
Robert Covington and Norman Powell are not on the injury report and are available to make their Los Angeles debuts. Ivica Zubac (calf) is listed as questionable.

Stats to Know

The Houston Rockets are allowing the most transition points per game this season (24.3)

Houston has been the worst transition defense in basketball for more than a year now. No team in the league is playing at a faster pace than the Rockets, too, which makes New Orleans quite an intriguing team here. Josh Hart leads the Pelicans with 6 transition points per game on the year, a number that’s good for third-most in the NBA. However, he’s listed as questionable for today’s game. If he is active, Hart is an outstanding mid-range play on this slate.

I also love the matchup for Brandon Ingram, who is averaging 4 transition points per game, and a healthy 1.23 points per possession off the play type. Meanwhile, the Rockets are also coughing up the second-most points per game against isolation this season, which also bodes well for Ingram, who is sporting a 29.4% usage rate in two games since returning from injury.

Jaylen Brown leads the NBA in spot-up points per game this season (7.6)

Brown has been in fantastic spots lately but has underwhelmed a bit, averaging less than 37 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. That being said, I’m willing to go back to him here. He’ll be facing an awful Magic team that ranks 30th against scorers, according to FTN’s Advanced DVP tool. Orlando is also allowing a league-worst 1.08 points per possession and 41.9% field goal percentage off spot-ups this season, which clearly bodes well for Brown, who still leads the league in spot-up points per game. In two meetings with the Magic this season, Brown is averaging 39 real points and nearly 60 fantasy points per game. The price is a little high over on DraftKings, but the upside is clearly there in this matchup.

Brandon Goodwin is averaging 75 made passes per game over his last two contests

Goodwin has started at point guard for the Cavaliers over the last two games and has been productive, scoring 30 and 39.2 fantasy points. During that span, he has recorded eight and nine assists, while his 75 made passes per game during that stretch are the third-most in the NBA. He is also averaging 15 potential assists per game and with Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, and Ricky Rubio off the floor this season, Goodwin is sporting a solid 20% assist rate while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. If Garland is ruled out, Goodwin will remain in play against a depleted Pacers defense.

Value Play

Kevin Huerter vs. DAL

At the moment, there isn’t a ton of value on this slate. Huerter is only $4,200 on DraftKings and should be locked into strong minutes, especially if Danilo Gallinari and/or John Collins are out for the Hawks. With both players off the floor this season, Huerter’s usage rate is at 27.5% while averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute in the split.