NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
We have a lot more NBA DFS action Saturday, and there are plenty of superstar players that won’t be available, which drastically impacts the DFS slate. Let’s break it all down.
Reminder: The FTN NBA Optimizer is a crucial tool to use to find success.
NBA Vegas Data for December 4 | NBA DFS First Look
Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -3, total: 222
Pace: CHI (15th), BKN (12th)
Situations to monitor:
- Alex Caruso is questionable with a hamstring injury, while Coby White remains out for the Bulls.
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -6.5, total: 211.5
Pace: MIA (28th), MIL (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful with a calf injury. Pat Connaughton entered the starting lineup in Giannis’ absence last game. Meanwhile, DeMarcus Cousins is probable.
- Jimmy Butler (back) is expected to remain out for this game, while Bam Adebayo will be sidelined for the foreseeable future.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -4.5, total: 219.5
Pace: MEM (9th), DAL (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kristaps Porzingis didn’t play Friday with a knee injury and is questionable for Saturday’s game.
- For Memphis, Ja Morant is obviously still out, while Kyle Anderson has been ruled out with a back injury.
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -9, total: 217.5
Pace: SAS (6th), GSW (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- Devin Vassell remains doubtful with a thigh injury.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings
LAC -1, total: 218.5
Pace: LAC (13th), SAC (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- Paul George hurt his ankle Friday but hopes to play Saturday. He will be questionable.
- For the Kings, Harrison Barnes has missed the last four games with a foot injury and has been downgraded to doubtful for this contest.
Boston Celtics @ Portland Trail Blazers
BOS -1, total: 211
Pace: BOS (24th), POR (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jaylen Brown rested Friday, so I expect him to be back in the lineup for the Celtics Saturday.
- Portland already lost Damian Lillard for over a week and now Anfernee Simons has been ruled out with an ankle injury.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Khris Middleton sees a 10% bump in usage with Giannis Antetokounmpo off the floor
With Giannis expected to sit again Saturday, Middleton (and Jrue Holiday) become amazing plays in DFS. The production wasn’t amazing for Middleton in Milwaukee’s last game, but the opportunity will be there with Giannis out again. When Giannis is out, both Middleton and Holiday should be players priced above $8,000 on DraftKings and they aren’t on this slate, which makes both All-Stars even more appealing. Middleton is sporting a team-high 36.7% usage rate with Antetokounmpo off the floor this season, while Holiday is just under 32% in the split. Holiday also touched the ball 94 times in the team’s last game, up from his season average of 68.1 touches per game. He also sported a 30.2% usage rate against the Raptors. Both Holiday and Middleton are core plays on this slate.
Dennis Smith is averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute with both Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons off the court
It obviously isn’t a number that is going to make your jaw drop, but it is very solid, and with both Lillard and Simons out for Saturday’s game, Smith will have to play at least 25 minutes against the Celtics, making him one of the best value options on the slate. His usage rate also climbs to a very solid 23% with both players off the floor this season. Smith played 19 minutes in Portland’s last game and that was with Simons playing all of the first quarter and into the second before leaving with an injury.
Tyler Herro is averaging 2.8 points per game off hand-offs this season
That is the highest number in all of basketball to this point, while Herro also leads the NBA in possessions per game off the play type (2.5). He is shooting an impressive 53.2% off the play type and should be called on to score even more with Miami missing both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Meanwhile, this matchup is favorable, as Milwaukee’s defense obviously isn’t as good without Giannis, but they are also coughing up 6.5 points per game to shooters off the dribble hand-off, good for the third-most in the league. They are also allowing the eighth-most points per possession off the play type (0.97).
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
DraftKings optimal lineup
Mike Conley (48.5)
Brandon Ingram (57.0)
Eric Gordon (35.0)
Jarred Vanderbilt (38.25)
Jarrett Allen (53.25)
Darius Garland (59.5)
Draymond Green (51.25)
Willy Hernangomez (37.5)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Mike Conley (44.3)
Darius Garland (52.6)
Gary Payton II (28.0)
Caris LeVert (38.9)
Jayson Tatum (54.7)
Brandon Ingram (55.6)
Al Horford (46.7)
Jarrett Allen (52.6)
Draymond Green (58.3)
Jarred Vanderbilt returned to Minnesota’s lineup at the right time, as Karl-Anthony Towns sat out with a tailbone injury. Vanderbilt was actually used to defend Kevin Durant for much of this game and although he got into some foul trouble, he still logged 30 minutes, scoring 10 points to go along with 15 rebounds, three assists, one steal and one block. Meanwhile, Jarrett Allen and the Cavaliers stayed hot Friday, as Allen recorded his sixth consecutive double-double, giving him 11 double-doubles over his last 13 contests.
