Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have six games on Monday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for December 20 | NBA DFS First Look
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
No Vegas Data posted
Pace: PHI (29th), BOS (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Andre Drummond, Shake Milton, Georges Niang and Grant Riller have been ruled out for the Sixers. Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Furkan Korkmaz and Danny Green are questionable.
- Al Horford, Josh Richardson, Grant Williams, Jabari Parker and Juancho Hernangomez have been ruled out for the Celtics. Jayson Tatum, Dennis Schroder and Romeo Langford are all listed as questionable.
Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -8, total: 224.0
Pace: HOU (2nd), CHI (14th)
Situations to monitor:
- Zach LaVine, Ayo Dosunmu, Derrick Jones and Troy Brown are out for the Bulls.
- Kevin Porter and Jalen Green are out for the Rockets while Armoni Brooks is listed as questionable.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -8.5, total: 212.0
Pace: OKC (17th), MEM (12th)
Situations to monitor:
- Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke and Ziaire Williams remain out for the Grizzlies.
Charlotte Hornets @ Utah Jazz
UTA -12, total: 235.0
Pace: CHA (4th), UTA (19th)
Situations to monitor:
- Cody Martin has been ruled out for the Hornets.
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -13.5, total: 224.5
Pace: SAC (5th), GSW (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Terence Davis, Davion Mitchell and Alex Len have been ruled out for the Kings. Richaun Holmes is listed as questionable.
- Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole have been ruled out for the Warriors.
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -4.5, total: 215.0
Pace: SAS (7th), LAC (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Marcus Morris and Isaiah Hartenstein have been ruled out for the Clippers, while Paul George is listed as questionable.
- Doug McDermott is listed as questionable for the Spurs.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Monday.
With both Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins off the court this season, Stephen Curry is averaging 1.55 FanDuel points per minute
Curry’s production (from a DFS standpoint) has been rather erratic this season, but with the Warriors down two of their top three offensive weapons, he may not have a choice but to post some gaudy numbers on Monday. He’s logged 288.1 minutes with Poole and Wiggins off the floor this season, more than any player on the Warriors. In that span, he’s posted a 35.5% usage rate and 33.7% assist rate, numbers that are far too elite to pass up for under $10,000 on FanDuel.
Over his last two games, Tyrese Haliburton has averaged 24.0 points, 10.5 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game
Haliburton has had no choice but to do it all for the Kings, as he and Buddy Hield are the last two ball handlers standing in this backcourt. Over this span, Haliburton has posted a 23.7% usage rate, 45.7% assist rate and 11.4% defensive rebounding rate, giving him some of the highest upside on the slate, particularly among the mid-tier players.
In 315.3 minutes with Zach LaVine off the court this season, DeMar DeRozan is averaging 1.36 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.3% usage rate
Arguably playing the best basketball of his career, DeMar DeRozan has turned things up a notch with fellow wing scorer Zach LaVine off the floor. With LaVine slated to miss Monday’s game, DeRozan should once again operate as the primary threat for the Bulls on offense, as he’s accompanied his gaudy usage rate with a 21.4% assist rate. With few pay-up options on the slate, DeRozan makes a ton of sense in the $9,000 range.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Below are some of the top value plays on Monday’s slate on DraftKings, pulled from the LineupEDGE optimizer (with their points per dollar included). For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.
- Nemanja Bjelica (8.85x)
- Damion Lee (8.48x)
- Gary Payton (8.3x)
- Paul Reed (7.98x)
- Kevon Looney (7.44x)
For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Stephen Curry ($11,800)
- Joel Embiid ($11,600) — QUESTIONABLE
- Paul George ($10,800) — QUESTIONABLE
- Jayson Tatum ($10,500) — QUESTIONABLE
- Dejounte Murray ($9,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Joel Embiid ($10,500) — QUESTIONABLE
- Jayson Tatum ($9,900) — QUESTIONABLE
- LaMelo Ball ($9,800)
- Stephen Curry ($9,700)
- Rudy Gobert ($9,400)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Joel Embiid (1x)
- Stephen Curry (1x)
- LaMelo Ball (1.1x)
- Dejounte Murray (1.1x)
- Jayson Tatum (1.15x)
With Monday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Sunday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on DraftKings Sunday night.
- PG: LeBron James (63.5)
- SG: Tim Hardaway (52.0)
- SF: Dillon Brooks (49.25)
- PF: Carmelo Anthony (38.75)
- C: Damian Jones (39.0)
- G: Tyrese Haliburton (54.0)
- F: Buddy Hield (43.75)
- UTIL: Norman Powell (39.75)
Total: 380.00
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel Sunday night.
- PG: Cameron Payne (34.7)
- PG: Tyrese Haliburton (51.3)
- SG: Buddy Hield (40.6)
- SG: DeMar DeRozan (51.8)
- SF: Dillon Brooks (48.1)
- SF: Tim Hardaway (52.2)
- PF: Carmelo Anthony (39.5)
- PF: LeBron James (61.8)
- C: Damian Jones (39.1)
Total: 419.1
The original nine-game slate turned into a six-game slate with a trio of COVID-19 postponements, condensing chalk around the shorthanded Kings. With Buddy Hield and Tyrese Haliburton being two of the most popular options on the slate, Damian Jones operated as a differentiating piece, as most people flocked to both Chimezie Metu and Tristan Thompson in the frontcourt.
Tim Hardaway also found himself in both optimals, as he stepped up offensively in a game where the Mavs lost Kristaps Porzingis to an injury. LeBron James was the highest-scoring stud on the slate, as he saw a boost across the board without Anthony Davis, while Carmelo Anthony filled in admirably on the offensive end for Davis as well, leading the Lakers team in scoring.
