Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have nine games on Monday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for December 13 | NBA DFS First Look
Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -5, total: 209.0
Pace: MIA (26th), CLE (19th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Markieff Morris and Caleb Martin are all out for the Heat.
- Collin Sexton remains out for the Cavs.
Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers
GSW -4, total: 213.5
Pace: GSW (7th), IND (23rd)
Situations to monitor:
- T.J. McConnell remains out for the Pacers while Justin Holiday is listed as questionable.
Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -5, total: 220.5
Pace: SAC (T5th), MIN (T5th)
Situations to monitor:
- OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Khem Birch remain out for the Raptors.
- Richaun Holmes has been ruled out for the Kings.
Houston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -11.5, total: 226.5
Pace: HOU (1st), ATL (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kevin Porter, Jalen Green and Danuel House have all been ruled out for the Rockets.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter have been ruled out for the Hawks.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics
BOS -1.5, total: 217.5
Pace: MIL (10th), BOS (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Josh Richardson has been ruled out for the Celtics, while Marcus Smart is listed as probable.
- Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo remain out for the Bucks.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies
PHI -3, total: 209.5
Pace: PHI (30th), MEM (12th)
Situations to monitor:
- Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke have been ruled out for the Grizzlies while Steven Adams is listed as doubtful and Jaren Jackson is questionable.
Charlotte Hornets @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -3.5, total: 219.5
Pace: CHA (2nd), DAL (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Luka Doncic has been ruled out for the Mavs.
- LaMelo Ball, Mason Plumlee, Ish Smith and Jalen McDaniels have all been ruled out for the Hornets while P.J. Washington is questionable.
Washington Wizards @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -4.5, total: 215.5
Pace: WAS (24th), DEN (28th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jamal Murray and Michael Porter remain out for the Nuggets while Will Barton is listed as questionable. JaMychal Green is also listed as doubtful for the Nuggets.
- Kyle Kuzma, Thomas Bryant and Rui Hachimura have all been ruled out for the Wizards.
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers
PHO -3.5, total: 212.5
Pace: PHO (4th), LAC (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Paul George is listed as doubtful for the Clippers while Nicolas Batum is listed as questionable.
- Devin Booker remains out for the Suns while Deandre Ayton is listed as questionable.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Monday.
Reggie Jackson has posted a 32.94% usage rate in 138.8 minutes with Paul George off the court this season
With George doubtful once again Monday, Jackson should take the reins on offense as he has been over the last few games. With George off the floor this season, Jackson has averaged over 35 FanDuel and DraftKings points per game (compared to 27 with him on the court) while averaging 22.14 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. His price has come down enough to a playable point due to a lack of ceiling games, making Jackson an ideal mid-tier target Monday.
With Steven Adams, Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke off of the floor, Jaren Jackson has posted a 30.0% usage rate, 11.3% rebounding rate and 1.13 DK points per minute
With Adams doubtful and the latter pair already ruled out, there’s a chance for a massive amount of rebounding upside to be voided. If Jackson plays, he’ll be the first in line to soak it up, something he’s proven to do in the past. With Jackson questionable, we could also see a heavy dose of Xavier Tillman, Killian Tille and Santi Aldama. Of the three, Tillman would stand to benefit the most should Jackson also be ruled out but could find himself in the starting lineup alongside Jackson (if he plays) simply with Adams expected to sit out.
The Pacers have allowed only 10.6 three-pointers per game, the second-lowest mark in all of basketball, this season
They’ve allowed the 10.6 three-pointers made on 30.3 attempts per game, which is also the second-lowest mark in the entire NBA. While Stephen Curry will get his shots regardless, it’s worth noting that this is the one area where the Pacers have seemed to excel defensively this season. While people will likely chase his narrative that he’s only seven threes away from becoming the all-time three-point leader, this is not something I am prioritizing given the other studs on this slate.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Below are two of the top value plays on Monday’s slate. For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.
Armoni Brooks (HOU): Brooks is averaging 16.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.3 steals per 36 minutes this season, a number he has come close to hitting in two consecutive games. Whether he starts or not, there are too many holes in the backcourt for Houston for him not to play big minutes, especially given his effectiveness as of late.
Xavier Tillman (MEM): As mentioned above, Steven Adams being listed as doubtful could potentially clear a path for Tillman to join the starting rotation. If Jaren Jackson is also ruled out, it almost guarantees that he’ll join the starters. He’s averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute (0.94) with Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke and Adams off the floor, making him an elite value option on this slate, especially if Jackson misses.
For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600)
- Stephen Curry ($11,400)
- Joel Embiid ($11,000)
- Paul George ($10,500) (DOUBTFUL)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
- Nikola Jokic ($11,400)
- Joel Embiid ($10,500)
- Stephen Curry ($10,300)
- Trae Young ($9,900)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Joel Embiid (1x)
- Stephen Curry (1x)
- Jayson Tatum (1.15x)
With Monday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Sunday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $150k Fadeaway ($50k to first) Sunday night.
- PG: Cade Cunningham (52.00)
- SG: Jalen Brunson (33.25)
- SF: Kevin Durant (79.25)
- PF: Larry Nance (29.00)
- C: Robert Covington (31.75)
- G: Terrence Ross (31.50)
- F: LeBron James (67.75)
- UTIL: Dwight Howard (21.50)
Total: 346.00
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $150k Shot ($30k to first) Sunday night.
- PG: Derrick White (60.1)
- PG: Cade Cunningham (49.6)
- SG: Dorian Finney-Smith (36.7)
- SG: Tim Hardaway (16.5)
- SF: Talen Horton-Tucker (41.7)
- SF: Josh Hart (30.0)
- PF: Darius Bazley (27.2)
- PF: Kevin Durant (76.9)
- C: Jakob Poeltl (47.9)
Total: 386.6
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s NBA Jump Shot ($1k to first) Sunday night.
- G: Cole Anthony (45.50)
- G: Derrick White (88.45)
- G: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (45.00)
- F: LeBron James (66.25)
- F: Kevin Durant (79.75)
- F: Brandon Ingram (64.06
- C: Karl-Anthony Towns (41.80)
Total: 430.81
Sunday’s slate was rather straightforward, as James Harden had been ruled out the previous night, paving the way for Kevin Durant to not only be the chalkiest piece on the slate, but also finish as the highest scorer. You were not going to cash without Kevin Durant on this slate.
Post-lock, however, Anthony Davis was ruled out. The winners on each site were able to take advantage, rostering the likes of Talen-Horton Tucker, LeBron James and even Dwight Howard, who were all serviceable at the very least. Derrick White was a gem in winning lineups, as more attention was on Cade Cunningham for a similar price at the guard position. White ultimately ended as the highest overall scorer on SuperDraft DFS.
