FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
There are just three NBA games Tuesday night, making it very, very difficult to find DFS value. And of course, a couple teams are still missing a handful of players, which makes rotations a lot tighter than normal during the month of November.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 9 | NBA DFS First Look
Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers
MIL -6.5, total: 218.5
Pace: MIL (7th), PHI (30th)
Situations to monitor:
- The 76ers will remain incredibly short-handed, as Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Matisse Thybulle and Isaiah Joe are all still out.
- For Milwaukee, Khris Middleton remains in the league’s health and safety protocols, while center Brook Lopez has been ruled out with a back injury.
Atlanta Hawks @ Utah Jazz
UTA -8.5, total: 221.5
Pace: ATL (14th), UTA (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- None.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -3, total: 219.5
Pace: POR (9th), LAC (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Marcus Morris will miss his eighth straight game with a knee injury. Nicolas Batum and Luke Kennard should continue to soak up a ton of minutes in his absence.
Stats to Know
In two starts this season, Andre Drummond is averaging 20.0 rebounds per game
Joel Embiid missed Monday night’s game after being placed in the league’s health and safety protocols, forcing Drummond into the starting lineup. He hauled in an absurd 25 boards in that game and in two starts with Embiid out of the lineup, Drummond is averaging 20.0 rebounds and an impressive 27 rebounding opportunities per game. For reference, the league-leader in that category so far this season is Rudy Gobert at 24.9 per contest. Drummond saw a whopping 31 rebounding opportunities last game, converting an other-worldly 80% of those chances into boards. His price tag across the industry has obviously climbed and a matchup with Milwaukee could prove difficult but it is still tough to ignore Drummond for the time being.
Jrue Holiday posted a 26.5% usage rate with Khris Middleton off the court last season
Holiday has hardly played this season, suiting up for just four of Milwaukee’s 10 contests. However, he is back now and while he may not be quite 100%, he returned to the starting lineup in the last game. Middleton remains out for the Bucks and if he was out of the lineup last year, Holiday would be between $7,500-$8,000 on DraftKings. But due to his injury and slow start this season, he is just $6,400, which presents a very good opportunity to buy-low. He sported a near 27% usage rate with Middleton off the floor last season, as well as a 21% assist rate and 14% rebounding rate. Holiday also averaged a very strong 1.28 fantasy points per minute in the split. As for the matchup, we know Philadelphia’s roster is depleted right now and they also allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick-and-roll (19.4). And for what it is worth, the FTN Daily optimizer absolutely loves Holiday Tuesday.
Nicolas Batum is averaging 5.4 spot-up points per game this season
That is good for the 12th in all of basketball so far this year, while the veteran is sporting a massive 56.3% frequency rate off the play type, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. In the absence of Marcus Morris, Batum has continued to start for the Clippers, logging around 28-30 minutes per game. This is a pretty good spot (no pun intended) for him, facing a Portland defense that is allowing the most spot-up points per game on the season (35.3), as well as the third-most points per possession (1.13) and second-highest field goal percentage (43%) off the play type.
Last Night’s GPP Performances
DraftKings optimal lineup
LaMelo Ball (67.25)
Cameron Payne (35.5)
Javonte Green (28.75)
Brandon Clarke (33.25)
Andre Drummond (51.75)
Steph Curry (86.75)
Will Barton (45.75)
Anthony Davis (68.5)
FanDuel optimal lineup
LaMelo Ball (62.5)
Steph Curry (83.5)
Cameron Payne (32.3)
D’Angelo Russell (50.5)
Kyle Anderson (35.3)
Will Barton (43)
Brandon Clarke (33.8)
Anthony Davis (72.4)
Andre Drummond (50.5)
Obviously, Andre Drummond was the most popular play of the slate, finding himself on around 80% of tournament rosters. He got off to a bit of a slow start but finished with a very strong game. Meanwhile, Brandon Clarke and Cameron Payne were two elite value plays that not only allowed you to get studs like Anthony Davis and Steph Curry into your lineups, but they also had incredible scoring outputs.
