NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/4)

Our DFS attention shifts toward a five-game NBA slate Thursday. Although it is a smaller slate, there are plenty of injury situations to monitor.

Every day here at FTN Daily we will take an early look at the day’s slate — there’s always a lot that will change, but this should help you get a solid first impression.

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 4 | NBA DFS First Look

Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons

PHI -6, total: 208.5
Pace: PHI (30th), DET (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• Tobias Harris will remain out for the 76ers, while Danny Green (hamstring) will miss another game or two. Georges Niang has filled in very nicely as of late.

Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks

UTA -1, total: 220.5
Pace: UTA (4th), ATL (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• There are currently conflicting reports on the status of Rudy Gobert, as ESPN has him listed as out for this game, while the team released their injury report with Gobert nowhere to be found. In the case that he is inactive, Hassan Whiteside is firmly in play while Eric Paschall should also get some more run if Gobert is inactive.
• Donovan Mitchell, meanwhile, is questionable to play with an ankle sprain. If he can’t play, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson would soak up a ton of usage, while Joe Ingles would likely enter the starting lineup and handle the ball a lot more. Royce O’Neale also sprained his ankle and is questionable.

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat

MIA -7, total: 214.5
Pace: BOS (19th), MIA (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -10, total: 218
Pace: HOU (1st), PHX (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Deandre Ayton sat out Tuesday’s game with a leg contusion and is questionable to return to the lineup on Thursday. In his absence, JaVale McGee drew the start and scored nearly 25 fantasy points in 18 minutes, though it was Frank Kaminsky who logged a season-high 29 minutes off the bench.
• Daniel Theis (toe) is questionable for the Rockets.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -13.5, total: 217
Pace: OKC (6th), LAL (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James is once again listed as questionable for the Lakers, while Anthony Davis (knee) is probable. At home against a bad Thunder team, it is very possible that one of the two stars gets the night off.
• For the Thunder, Luguentz Dort missed Monday’s game with a shoulder injury and is questionable to play in this game. If he can’t go, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Derrick Favors would see a boost, especially Favors against a Los Angeles team with so much size.

Five Stats to Know

Hassan Whiteside is sporting a 47% rebounding rate with Rudy Gobert off the floor

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Whiteside dominates the glass when he’s on the floor, as that has been the case throughout his career. He’s played about 114 minutes with Gobert off the court this season and during that span, Whiteside is posting an absurd 47% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute in the split. No player in the NBA is averaging more rebounding chances per game this season than Gobert (26.0) and with conflicting reports on his availability for the game against the Hawks on Thursday, a ton of those opportunities could go to Whiteside if Gobert misses, who has been a very efficient fantasy producer. Over the last two seasons, he is averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute and as long as he logs 20-25 minutes in this game, he should provide a near double-double.

The Pistons are allowing the highest FG% off spot-ups in the NBA (45.5%)

Unsurprisingly, the Pistons are a pretty bad defense. This is a great spot for the 76ers but with the team missing both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons, role players have been stepping up for Philadelphia. Perhaps none more than Georges Niang, who has logged over 30 minutes and at least 27 fantasy points in each of the last two games. Danny Green has also been out, which has really solidified Niang’s minutes. On the season, he is averaging 7.3 spot-up points per game, good for the fourth-highest mark in basketball. That could bode well for him against a Pistons team allowing the highest field goal percentage to opposing spot-up shooters on the season (45.5%). Niang is also sporting a very respectable 23% usage rate over the last two games and while his price has come up a bit, I still believe he remains firmly in play.

Bam Adebayo is averaging 5.2 transition points per game this season

Not only is that good for the 10th-most in all of basketball but Adebayo is the only center inside the top-30 in that department this season. We often see Bam grab a defensive rebound and rather than handing the ball off to one of Miami’s guards, he’ll push the pace and bring the ball up. Adebayo is one of my favorite players in all of basketball because he contributes in every single category, giving him an outstanding floor in fantasy. He faces a Boston interior that can be had, while the Celtics are also coughing up the second-most transition points per game (24.3), as well as the second-highest frequency rate off the play type (18.9%). Bam, meanwhile, is sporting a 19% frequency rate in transition, while averaging a very impressive 1.29 points per possession.

Josh Giddey leads the Thunder with a 20% assist rate

The Thunder are a bad team, but they do have a future. We know Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star, but Giddey has played very well to start his NBA career, averaging 11.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. His 20% assist rate leads the Thunder and Giddey has recorded at least six assists in four of his last five games. Giddey has finally seen his price tag climb but on a five-game slate, I’m still fine going to him at nearly $6,000 on DraftKings, especially if you are stacking this game. Both the Thunder and Lakers rank top-10 in the league in pace, which should bode well for the rookie.

Jordan Clarkson is sporting a 33.7% usage rate with Donovan Mitchell off the floor

While Gobert has already been ruled out for the Jazz, Mitchell is still questionable, giving him a chance to play. But if he sits out, feel free to go to Mike Conley, Joe Ingles and Clarkson. The latter has immense upside, as his usage rate is flirting with 34% with Mitchell off the floor this season. And last season, that number was at 31.3%, while he averaged 1.18 fantasy points per minute in the split. Clarkson’s shot hasn’t been falling as of late, but we know he is going to keep taking shots, especially if Mitchell is sidelined for the Jazz. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

Patrick Beverley (36.5)
Jalen Brunson (53.0)
Norman Powell (40.75)
Jaren Jackson (42.0)
Myles Turner (57.25)
LaMelo Ball (38.25)
Will Barton (47.25)
Joel Embiid (42.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Reggie Jackson (47.0)
Jordan Poole (47.1)
Jalen Brunson (51.5)
Tyrese Haliburton (53.3)
Will Barton (47.1)
Miles Bridges (57.8)
Jarrett Allen (54.4)
Myles Turner (55.6)
Nikola Jokic (58.7)

SuperDraft optimal lineup

Anthony Edwards (62.73)
Reggie Jackson (81.20)
Tyrese Haliburton (83.70)
Miles Bridges (82.01)
OG Anunoby (56.35)
Paul George (59.22)
Nikola Jokic (64.84)

Jalen Brunson is coming off a stellar showing, scoring 31 points to go along with 10 rebounds, three assists and two steals. He played the entire fourth quarter and for much of it, was actually the focal point of the Dallas offense, as even Luka Doncic was playing more off-ball. He wasn’t very popular so when he goes off for over 50 fantasy points, yeah, you can bet he’ll find himself in some winning lineups. Meanwhile, with D’Angelo Russell out for Minnesota Wednesday, Patrick Beverley became an extremely viable value option and he delivered, scoring nearly 37 DK points.