College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
We have just a four-game NBA DFS slate Tuesday that expects to be very, very concentrated given the news we already have. With LeBron James suspended and potentially both Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic remaining sidelined with injuries, this slate might not be as loaded as it could have been. To help make sense of it all, make sure to take advantage of the FTN Daily Optimizer.
Let’s take a look at Tuesday’s slate.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 22 | NBA DFS First Look
Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons
MIA -10, total: 207
Pace: MIA (17th), DET (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- Isaiah Stewart has been suspended for the next two games. With Kelly Olynyk already out, plenty of minutes will be available for Trey Lyles and Luka Garza.
- Killian Hayes, meanwhile, will miss at least the next two games with a thumb injury.
Los Angeles Lakers @ New York Knicks
NYK -4, total: 215
Pace: LAL (1st), NYK (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- LeBron James has been suspended for one game, while Anthony Davis is once again listed as probable for the Lakers.
- Derrick Rose is questionable with an ankle injury, while Mitchell Robinson (concussion) has been ruled out. With Taj Gibson already doubtful, Nerlens Noel will have to log plenty of minutes.
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -6.5, total: 213
Pace: DEN (21st), POR (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nikola Jokic has missed the last two games with a wrist injury and is questionable for Tuesday’s contest.
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -5.5, total: 210
Pace: DAL (15th), LAC (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Luka Doncic (ankle) is listed as questionable. He’s missed the last three games for Dallas.
Stats to Know
Russell Westbrook sees a 2.8% bump in usage rate with LeBron James off the court
Both Westbrook and Anthony Davis are sure to be popular on this slate with James out for the Lakers, and for good reason. Westbrook’s usage rate climbs by nearly 3% with James off the floor this season, putting his usage rate at a strong 31.3% mark in the split. He is also averaging 1.37 fantasy points per minute while sporting a 24% rebounding rate and 26% assist rate. When James missed time earlier in the month, Westbrook averaged 91 touches per game in nine contests, while his 7.7 minutes of possession per game ranked fourth most among all players during that span.
Nerlens Noel is sporting a 27% rebounding rate with Mitchell Robinson and Taj Gibson off the floor
New York’s frontcourt is going to be short-handed against a Lakers team with plenty of size. Robinson is out with a concussion, while Gibson is listed as doubtful. Noel has logged 26 and 29 minutes over the last two games and should play around 27-30 minutes again against the Lakers Tuesday. With both players off the floor this season, Noel is sporting a very solid 27% rebounding rate. And while his usage rate doesn’t really climb, Noel isn’t going to ever be a high-usage player on this team. He will be needed to play a lot of minutes against Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan.
Aaron Gordon is averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute with Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter off the court
Gordon has been mostly a disappointment since joining Denver, but with the team so short-handed as of late, we’ve seen him do a lot more. Over the last two games, both of which Jokic has been sidelined, Gordon has posted stat lines of 16-10-4-2 and 28-9-4-2, scoring 49.75 and 38.5 fantasy points. And with both Jokic and Porter Jr. off the floor this season, Gordon is averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a respectable 23.4% usage rate and 27% rebounding rate. It is simple. If Jokic misses his third consecutive game, Gordon remains a very good option in DFS. However, if Jokic returns to the lineup, it is time to look elsewhere.
Last Night’s GPP Performances
DraftKings optimal lineup
Dejounte Murray (57.5)
LaMelo Ball (62.75)
Jordan Nwora (28.25)
Jarred Vanderbilt (36.25)
Montrezl Harrell (47.0)
Terry Rozier (48.0)
Jaren Jackson (46.0)
Desmond Bane (44.0)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Derrick White (41.8)
LaMelo Ball (60.1)
Desmond Bane (42.8)
Terry Rozier (45.4)
Josh Hart (42.5)
Kevin Durant (54.7)
Willy Hernangomez (33.2)
Jaren Jackson (47.6)
Andre Drummond (51.1)
Jaren Jackson making it into both optimals is always interesting because, unless the Grizzlies are insanely depleted, he likely won’t ever be very popular. That always makes him an interesting GPP play because there is so much upside with him, especially when he can stay out of foul trouble like he did on Monday. Meanwhile, it was another huge game from LaMelo Ball, who continues to play huge minutes, unlike the start of the season when he was logging minutes in the low-30s.
