NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/2)

There are only five games around the NBA Tuesday, but there is so much to keep tabs on for DFS.

Injuries are always a huge storyline in NBA DFS but especially Tuesday. Multiple star players are listed as questionable, and if you aren’t planning on being home or around a computer, it is probably best to sit out this slate. 

Let’s look at what we need to know.

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 2 | NBA DFS First Look

Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons

MIL -4, total: 210.5
Pace: MIL (3rd), DET (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Khris Middleton has been placed in the league’s health and safety protocols and will be out.
• Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday and Donte DiVincenzo will remain out for Milwaukee.

Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks

MIA -2.5, total: 210
Pace: MIA (8th), DAL (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Bam Adebayo is questionable to play with a knee injury. He was a full participant during Monday’s practice.
• Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last three games with a back injury and is questionable to play on Tuesday. With Maxi Kleber already out, Dallas’ frontcourt could be short-handed here.

Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz

UTA -9, total: 222.5
Pace: SAC (4th), UTA (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• None

New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -11.5, total: 215
Pace: NOP (10th), PHX (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Both Brandon Ingram and Devonte’ Graham are listed as questionable for this game. Kira Lewis would see a bump if Graham is ruled out.
• For the Suns, Deandre Ayton is questionable to play with a leg injury. He left Saturday’s game against Cleveland with the injury. JaVale McGee could draw a spot start if Ayton can’t play.

Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -10, total: 217.5
Pace: HOU (1st), LAL (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard are all questionable for the Lakers.
• Jae’Sean Tate and Daniel Theis are questionable for the Rockets.

Five Stats to Know

The Kings are allowing the most putback points per game (10.0)

Rudy Gobert finds himself in a fantastic spot Tuesday, and his price has dipped down a bit after a few underwhelming games. Per usual, the Kings are playing fast, ranking fourth in the league in pace, but Utah quietly ranks ninth in pace so far this season. Seemingly every other game on this slate has injury situations to monitor, but this contest has nothing, which means it could actually go a bit overlooked. Gobert has a great matchup, facing a Kings frontcourt that is allowing a league-leading 10.0 putback points per game. Meanwhile, Gobert is averaging 5.2 points per game off the play type, easily the most in the NBA, while his 22.5% frequency rate is one of the highest rates in the league. 

JaVale McGee is sporting a 47% rebounding rate with Deandre Ayton off the floor

There are so many injuries on this slate, which will present plenty of value. McGee could draw a spot start if Ayton is ruled out with a leg injury. He suffered the injury against the Cavaliers over the weekend and did not return to the game. McGee has strong numbers with Ayton off the floor this season, sporting a whopping 47% rebounding rate, while also posting a healthy 22.7% usage rate. He is also averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute in the split. McGee scored just over 18 fantasy points in 18 minutes in Ayton’s absence over the weekend so all he really needs to do is see 18-22 minutes, and he’ll likely be worth his price tag.

The Rockets are allowing a league-leading 25.3 transition points per game this season

This Rockets/Lakers game features two teams that are tied for the league-lead in pace, which is very appealing for fantasy purposes. However, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable to play in this game and it is very possible that they sit out. If James is active, he is an amazing play, as he currently is averaging 6.2 transition points per game, tied for the sixth most in the NBA. He is also averaging 1.07 points per possession off the play type and now faces a Houston team that is coughing up 25.3 transition points per game, easily the most in basketball. The Rockets are also allowing the most points per possession off the play type (1.24), as well as the fourth-highest field goal percentage (56.5%).

Jonas Valanciunas saw 7.0 post-ups in New Orleans’ last game

JoVal has been outstanding to start his tenure with the Pelicans, averaging 19.4 points, 14.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists and just over a block per game. Unlike in years past, Valanciunas is playing huge minutes, which is incredibly exciting when you consider he’s been averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute over the last two seasons. Already without Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have asked Valanciunas to do more, something that will have to continue if the team is without Brandon Ingram or Devonte’ Graham tonight, both of whom are questionable. During New Orleans’ last game with Ingram sidelined, JoVal saw seven post-ups, up from his season average of 5.3 per game, showing that this team will continue to play through him. Sure, his price has understandably come up, but it is absolutely warranted. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is sporting a 36% usage rate with Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton off the court

It is only about a 90-minute sample this season, but with both players off the floor last season, Giannis posted a usage rate just north of 34%, while also sporting identical rebounding and assist rates of 31%. He averaged an absurd 1.85 fantasy points per minute in the split and with both players out for Tuesday’s game against the Pistons, it is pretty clear who the top option of the slate is, especially since Milwaukee being so banged up likely ensures that this game stays competitive. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

LaMelo Ball (57.25)
Gary Trent (42.5)
Franz Wagner (44.5)
Georges Niang (37.75)
Andre Drummond (56.75)
Cole Anthony (61.25)
Paul George (62.25)
Jarrett Allen (56.0)

FanDuel optimal lineup

LaMelo Ball (57.4)
Cole Anthony (58.8)
Franz Wagner (44.8)
OG Anunoby (48.2)
Gary Trent (43.9)
Paul George (61.3)
Lauri Markkanen (43.6)
Jarrett Allen (57.2)
Andre Drummond (60.5)

SuperDraft optimal lineup

Fred VanVleet (58.4)
Seth Curry (67.38)
Furkan Korkmaz (57.0)
Lauri Markkanen (74.25)
Franz Wagner (90.25)
OG Anunoby (68.18)
Andre Drummond (100.40)

With the 76ers without both Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris Monday (on top of already missing Ben Simmons), Philadelphia players were obviously very, very popular and they absolutely delivered. Meanwhile, Cole Anthony is quietly putting together a very strong sophomore season, as he is dominating the usage and ball-handling duties for the Magic, giving him serious upside.