Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have nine games on tap on Friday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 19 | NBA DFS First Look
Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -2.5, total: 215.5
Pace: WAS (19th), CHA (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- P.J. Washington remains out for the Hornets
- Chris Duarte is listed as questionable for the Pacers.
Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons
GSW -7.5, total: 210.5
Pace: GSW (7th), DET (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Steph Curry is questionable for the Warriors.
- Kelly Olynyk remains out for the Pistons.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics
BOS -2.5, total: 213.0
Pace: LAL (2nd), BOS (23rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Davis is probable for the Lakers, while LeBron James is listed as questionable.
- Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams are both listed as questionable for the Lakers.
Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -12.5, total: 209.5
Pace: ORL (17th), BKN (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- Joe Harris remains out for the Nets.
- Jalen Suggs and Michael Carter-Williams are questionable for the Magic.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -13, total: 214.5
Pace: OKC (12th), MIL (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo remain out for the Bucks.
Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans
LAC -4, total: 215.0
Pace: LAC (5th), NOP (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nicolas Batum and Marcus Morris remain out for the Clippers.
Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -4, total: 211.5
Pace: CHI (14th), DEN (29th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nikola Vucevic remains out for the Bulls while Alex Caruso is currently listed as probable.
- Jamal Murray and Michael Porter remain out for the Nuggets.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -7.5, total: 211.5
Pace: DAL (21st), PHO (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Luka Doncic is doubtful for the Mavericks.
- Frank Kaminsky is listed as out for the Suns.
Toronto Raptors @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -3.5, total: 218.5
Pace: SAC (8th), TOR (28th)
Situations to monitor:
- OG Anunoby remains out for the Raptors while the status of Precious Achiuwa is currently up in the air.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.
In 190.7 minutes with Steph Curry off the court this season, Jordan Poole has posted a 35.2% usage rate.
With Curry’s status up in the air, Poole could quickly step into an alpha role and a drastically reduced price. In addition to the 35.2% usage rate, he’s also posted a 28.4% assist rate and 1.12 DK points per minute (1.04 FD points per minute) in those 190.7 minutes. With a potential for 35-plus minutes in the absence of Curry, Poole is one of the most important players to watch on this slate.
Over his last six games, Will Barton has averaged 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists and a steal in 35.9 minutes per game.
Five of those six games came after Michael Porter got hurt, as Barton has been tasked with stepping up alongside Nikola Jokic. He’s posted a 22.3% usage rate and 23.3% assist rate over this span, averaging 1.10 DK points per minute. Assuming he continues to get nearly 40 minutes, it’s hard to not view his now-inflated price as a value given how many minutes he’s playing.
Last game without Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson led the Mavs with a 39.1% assist rate and tied for the second-highest rebounding rate (11.0%).
Brunson ended the game with 18 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists in a beautiful all-around effort. He posted the third-highest usage rate (25.9%) on the team and tied with Tim Hardaway for the most minutes (36.8) on the entire team. He’s priced up ($6,700), but that should still be considered a reasonable price given that he’s playing at the level of an $8k-plus player.
Chimezie Metu has averaged 11.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, and one block in 27.1 minutes per game as a starter this season.
Metu has topped 23 DK points in two of his last three games, all of which he found himself in the starting lineup. His rebounding upside hasn’t skipped a beat alongside Richaun Holmes, and he’s carved out a nice offensive role while bringing some three-point upside to the table (six or more attempts in three of his last four games). With Luke Walton confirming that Metu will start at least two more games, he’s firmly on the radar as a value play once again.
Over their last three games, both Zach LaVine (32.4%) and DeMar DeRozan (30.2%) have posted usage rates north of 30%.
With Nikola Vucevic still out, the usage funnel has condensed for Chicago, with the aforementioned two players dominating all of it. DeRozan has demonstrated a higher ceiling, scoring at least 35 points in two of the last three games, but LaVine has trumped him in volume, attempting at least 20 shots in all three games.
Both have seen elevations in their prices, but with the roles they are currently playing, they’re impossible to ignore.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12, 300)
- Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
- Luka Doncic ($11,900) (doubtful)
- Steph Curry ($11,500) (questionable)
- Kevin Durant ($11,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400)
- Nikola Jokic ($11,300)
- Steph Curry ($10,800) (questionable)
- Luka Doncic ($10,700) (doubtful)
- Kevin Durant ($10,500)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x) (doubtful)
With Friday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Thursday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Patrick Beverley (28.75)
SG: Darius Garland (36.25)
SF: Dean Wade (36.75)
PF: Kyle Kuzma (49.75)
C: Ed Davis (30.00)
G: Tyrese Maxey (39.25)
F: Jimmy Butler (50.75)
UTIL: Rudy Gobert (34.25)
Total: 305.75
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Stephen Curry (56.8)
PG: Darius Garland (32.7)
SG: Paul George (40.0)
SG: Jimmy Butler (54.1)
SF: Isaac Okoro (28.9)
SF: Dean Wade (34.3)
PF: Isaiah Hartenstein (32.2)
PF: Kyle Kuzma (45.1)
C: Ed Davis (31.3)
Total: 355.4
Thursday’s six-game slate was littered with value, as the decimated frontcourt in Cleveland provided a lot of winning value. This was evident on both FanDuel and DraftKings, as each lineup had at least two Cavs, with Dean Wade and Darius Garland being the constants. Isaac Okoro made it into the winning FanDuel lineup, giving the user a full Cavs stack.
Jimmy Butler was also a constant across both sites, as was Kyle Kuzma, who benefitted from additional touches in the absence of Spencer Dinwiddie and additional minutes in the absence of Daniel Gafford.
