NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/11)

This has been a wild week of NBA DFS. The slates keep bouncing back and forth from massive slate to small slate. After a 13-gamer Wednesday, we only have three contests Thursday.

Before we break it all down, I have to shout out my colleague Kyle Murray, who had himself an outstanding Wednesday night. The NBA optimizer is a crucial tool to DFS success so if you are hoping to have that huge night too, make sure you check it out.

Let’s take a look at Thursday.

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 11 | NBA DFS First Look

Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -3, total: 210
Pace: TOR (27th), PHI (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• After missing the last six games due to COVID-19, Tobias Harris could return to the lineup here. He is listed as questionable along with Seth Curry (foot).
• For Toronto, Pascal Siakam made his season debut the other day but after playing Wednesday, he is expected to rest Thursday.

Indiana Pacers @ Utah Jazz

UTA -9.5, total: 219.5
Pace: IND (18th), UTA (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Caris LeVert has been ruled out for this game due to a sore lower back. T.J. Warren, meanwhile, remains out.

Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -3.5, total: 213
Pace: MIA (30th), LAC (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jimmy Butler sprained his ankle in the first half of Wednesday’s game and did not return. He is listed as questionable to play in this game, but I’d guess he sits.

Stats to Know

Tobias Harris sported a 31.3% usage rate with both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons off the floor last season

Harris has a legitimate shot of returning to the 76ers lineup, and if he does, he will absolutely dominate the usage. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons remain out, while Seth Curry is questionable. In 2020, Harris’ usage rate was just over 31% with Embiid and Simmons off the floor, while his rebounding rate jumped up to a strong 22% and his assist rate skyrocketed from 10% to 14%. Harris also averaged 1.31 fantasy points per minute with both players off the floor last season. Perhaps his minutes are limited a bit in his first game back but with Philadelphia so short-handed, I’m not sure that will be the case.

Kyle Lowry had 114 touches during Miami’s game Wednesday

Sure, that game did go to overtime, but Lowry clearly took on a larger role after Jimmy Butler left the game. He possessed the ball for eight minutes over the course of the game and finished with a strong stat line of 18 points, 11 assists and six rebounds. With Butler off the floor this season, Lowry’s usage rate is actually pretty low, just over 16%. It was actually Bam Adebayo who led the Heat in usage last game at just over 37%. However, his assist rate jumps all the way up to 28%, while still averaging over a fantasy point per minute in the split. For some reason, his price has come down to just $7,100 on DraftKings, making him a core play if Butler (ankle) can’t play.

Precious Achiuwa is sporting a 35% rebounding rate with Khem Birch and Pascal Siakam off the court

Achiuwa’s minutes have been very inconsistent so far this season, but they have started to trend the right way as of late, logging at least 25 minutes in three of his last four outings. And with Siakam (rest) and Birch (knee) out for the Raptors, he should be able to play 27-30 minutes once again Wednesday. He’s been a productive rebounder this season, averaging nearly nine per game. And with both Siakam and Birch off the floor this season, Achiuwa easily leads the Raptors with a 35% rebounding rate, while also sporting a respectable 20.1% usage rate in the split. On the season, Achiuwa is converting over 60% of his rebounding chances into boards and he should see plenty of opportunities, making him a very strong value option. 

Last Night’s GPP performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

Derrick Rose (47.25)
Malik Monk (41.5)
Kelly Oubre (51.25)
Frank Kaminsky (46.75)
Bam Adebayo (58)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (61)
Anthony Edwards (66.25)
Russell Westbrook (67.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

De’Aaron Fox (56.4)
Ja Morant (58.4)
Derrick Rose (48.1)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (60)
Kelly Oubre (48.5)
Anthony Edwards (61.5)
Frank Kaminsky (45.9)
Jerami Grant (50.5)
Bam Adebayo (60)

The early injury to Jimmy Butler helped propel Bam Adebayo to a massive game, placing him in the optimal lineup on both main sites. Meanwhile, it was nice to finally see De’Aaron Fox finally have a huge game and it came at the perfect time, as he wasn’t very popular at all, especially on a 13-game slate. Finally, I believe this is the second time in the last five days that Derrick Rose has found himself in the optimal lineup. He’s shown he still has that upside and with Kemba Walker struggling, Rose has been closing out a lot of games for New York.