NBA DFS Preview - First Look (10/29)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

We have 7 games on tap on Friday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for Oct. 29 | NBA DFS First Look

Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -8, total: 211.0
Pace: ORL (14th), TOR (18th)

Situations to monitor:

none

Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -9.5, total: 223.5
Pace: IND (9th), BKN (8th)

Situations to monitor:

Malcolm Brogdon has been ruled out, while Caris LeVert remains questionable for the Pacers.

Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat

MIA -6.5, total: 220.5
Pace: CHA (T4th), MIA (11th)

Situations to monitor:

Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry are both probable for the Heat.
Terry Rozier is listed as questionable, while P.J. Washington is listed as doubtful for the Hornets.

Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans

SAC -2.5, total: 221.0
Pace: SAC (6th), NOP (13th)

Situations to monitor:

Josh Hart is questionable for the Pelicans.

Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -2.5, total: 219.5
Pace: DAL (30th), DEN (T15th)

Situations to monitor:

Nikola Jokic is questionable for the Nuggets.
Kristaps Porzingis and Boban Marjanovic are listed as questionable for the Mavericks after both missed Thursday’s game against the Spurs.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers

POR -2.5, total: 222.5
Pace: LAC (7th), POR (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

Marcus Morris and Serge Ibaka remain out for the Clippers.
Norman Powell is listed as questionable for the Blazers.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -8, total: 219.5
Pace: CLE (17th), LAL (1st)

Situations to monitor:

LeBron James is listed as questionable and Anthony Davis is listed as probable for the Lakers. Rajon Rondo and Wayne Ellington are also listed as questionable. Kendrick Nunn, Trevor Ariza, and Talen Horton-Tucker remain out.

Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.

Domantas Sabonis averaged 13.2% more DraftKings points and 13.4% more FanDuel points per game during the 2020-21 season in games where Malcolm Brogdon was out.

In those 12 games, Sabonis averaged 21.0 points, 12.75 rebounds, 9.58 assists and 1.58 steals in 36.3 minutes per game, becoming a Nikola Jokic lite of the NBA. Luckily for DFS players, Brogdon has been ruled out for Friday, so we should see an enhanced version of one of the most versatile big men in the NBA against an exploitable Brooklyn frontcourt. If Caris LeVert remains out, that only funnels more usage to the big man, who you can consider underpriced tonight.

Over the last two games with P.J. Washington out, Mason Plumlee has averaged 13.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 stocks in 34 minutes per game.

Those 34 minutes per game are up from the 25 minutes per game that Plumlee was averaging in the two games leading up to these, as he’s been the primary beneficiary of Washington’s absence. While a matchup with the Heat isn’t an ideal one when targeting this Hornets team, Plumlee provides enough peripheral stats where he shouldn’t be affected by matchup and certainly won’t be played off the court in a game against Bam Adebayo. He’s an elite mid-tier center target on this slate.

Devonte’ Graham’s 70.8 touches per game are second to only Jonas Valanciunas on the Pelicans, while his 5.7 minutes of possession per game lead the team.

Graham has quickly experienced a revitalization in New Orleans, having topped 30 minutes in three consecutive games and scoring more than 20 points in three of five games this season. He falls behind only Brandon Ingram and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in usage rate (22.4%) and leads all starters in assist rate (24.3%) while he continues to do it all for the Pelicans. At his price, he’s a great mid-tier option that may continue to get overlooked.

Luka Doncic leads the NBA with 9.6 minutes of possession per game while ranking third overall in touches per game (93.5).

After a down game Thursday, Friday may be an opportunity to go right back to the well with Doncic for a fraction of the ownership, as his usage metrics are far from indicative of the floor game he had on Thursday. His 33.5% usage rate trails only Giannis Antetokounmpo for the league lead and a matchup with the Nuggets is one he can certainly exploit. In three games last season against the Nuggets, Doncic averaged 31.3 points, 13.7 assists, 8.3 rebounds, and 3.0 steals per game, giving him an astronomical ceiling in a bounce-back spot where Kristaps Porzingis is in danger of missing again.

In 16 games played without Malcolm Brogdon in 2020-21, T.J. McConnell saw a 23.5% jump in DraftKings points per game and a 21.3% jump in FanDuel points per game.

McConnell is the direct beneficiary of Brogdon’s absences, sliding into the starting lineup at point guard. This year, unlike last season, however, Aaron Holiday is no longer in the mix to take minutes, nor is Edmond Sumner. With a rather thin backcourt, McConnell should be primed for a 35-minute role with tremendous upside in all facets of the box score, as evident by his averages of 12.8 points, 7.6 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.94 steals per game with Brogdon out last season.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Luka Doncic ($11,000)
Nikola Jokic ($10,700)
Kevin Durant ($10,300)
Paul George ($10,000)
LeBron James ($9,900)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Nikola Jokic ($11,100)
Kevin Durant ($10,900)
Luka Doncic ($10,700)
Anthony Davis ($10,600)
Paul George ($10,100)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

With Friday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Thursday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Thursday’s five-game slate Thursday was another where we saw concentrated ownership, as Luka Doncic and the Grizzlies’ value wings accounted for a massive amount of ownership on DraftKings, while Montrezl Harrell may have been the highest-owned player so far this season across all sites. Because most of the popular pieces paid off (sans Doncic), most lineups came down to a 2v2 or 3v3 to differentiate themselves.

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $450k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Thursday.

PG: Ja Morant (52.75)
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (37.50)
SF: Desmond Bane (32.50)
PF: Maxi Kleber (45.00)
C: Kelly Olynyk (30.25)
G: Stephen Curry (59.75)
F: John Collins (48.00)
UTIL: Montrezl Harrell (56.25)

Total: 362.00

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) Thursday.

PG: Stephen Curry (54.4)
PG: Ja Morant (52.9)
SG: De’Anthony Melton (36.7)
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (34.6)
SF: DeMar DeRozan (38.1)
SF: Kyle Kuzma (39.6)
PF: Maxi Kleber (48.0)
PF: John Collins (44.9)
C: Montrezl Harrell (57.1)

Total: 406.3

The biggest takeaway here is the absence of Luka Doncic from both winning lineups. In these specific contests, Doncic came in as 58.3% owned on DraftKings and 53.0% owned on FanDuel. While he may have come into the slate with the highest true ceiling of any player on the slate, this shows that it can still be a profitable strategy to fade him in favor of the next-closest player. In this case, it was Curry, who outperformed Doncic and found himself in both winning lineups for a fraction of the ownership. Will it always work? Certainly not, but you won’t differentiate much from the field by rostering a player over 50% owned on every slate.