NBA DFS Preview – First Look (10/28)

Thursday presents a modest six-game slate in the NBA with one or two games that pretty clearly stand out above the rest. This article serves as a first impression of the slate but obviously make sure that you are keeping track of news over the course of the day.

NBA Vegas Data for Oct. 28 | NBA DFS First Look

Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards

ATL -3, total: 222
Pace: ATL (29th), WAS (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Lou Williams remains questionable with an ankle injury for the Hawks.

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -10.5, total: 213.5
Pace: DET (12th), PHI (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• Joel Embiid continues to deal with knee soreness and is questionable again for this game. It is very possible the 76ers let him rest here.
• For the Pistons, Jerami Grant (elbow) is listed as questionable, while rookie Cade Cunningham still won’t make his NBA debut.

New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -1.5, total: 215
Pace: NYK (19th), CHI (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Zach LaVine is dealing with a small tear in his thumb but is expected to play through the ailment.
• Nerlens Noel (knee) remains questionable for New York. He’s yet to play this season.

Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets

UTA -9, total: 221
Pace: UTA (19th), HOU (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Bojan Bogdanovic (illness) is questionable for this contest. If he sits out, Joe Ingles and Eric Paschall would see a bump in minutes.

San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -7, total: 220.5
Pace: SAS (10th), DAL (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kristaps Porzingis suffered a back injury last game and was unable to return. He is listed as questionable. Maxi Kleber would see a bump, but Dallas suddenly has plenty of centers/power forwards on their roster.
• For the Spurs, Doug McDermott will miss the next few games with a knee injury.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -6, total: 229
Pace: MEM (15th), GSW (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Dillon Brooks will remain sidelined for the Grizzlies.

Five Stats to Know

Jakob Poeltl is averaging 20.3 rebounding chances per game this season

With the Spurs rebuilding, Poeltl has found himself playing more, and more consistent, minutes, as San Antonio is asking him to do a lot more. So far this season, Poeltl is averaging 32 minutes per game and has been dominating the glass, averaging nearly 11 rebounds per contest. His 20.3 rebounding opportunities per game are good for the fourth most in the NBA, while sporting a healthy 34% rebounding rate. I like him to keep it going against a Dallas defense that can give it up to opposing centers, especially if Kristaps Porzingis sits out. The Mavericks are allowing the sixth-most total rebounds per game at the moment (58.0), while they were also a bottom-five defense against the post last season.

Ja Morant is averaging 22.8 drives per game so far this year

That is the second-highest number in the NBA, as Morant is off to a scorching start to the 2021 campaign. Morant averaged around 18 drives per game a season ago and will likely always be among the league leaders in that department. He’s been so aggressive to open the season, sporting a whopping 34.5% usage rate, while averaging 1.45 fantasy points per minute. His 10.3 field goal attempts per game off drives are tied with Trae Young for the most in basketball, while he’s shooting an impressive 53.7% off the play type. 56% of his points have come off drives and I don’t see anyone on Golden State being able to slow him down, especially in terms of rim protection. In a game that has the highest total of the slate and projects to play very fast, Morant should be viewed as a top-tier play.

Evan Fournier is averaging 3.8 points per game off handoffs 

So far this season, his 3.8 points per game off the play type are the third most in the league. Fournier has played pretty well during his first season in New York, averaging 19 points per game, while shooting 47% from the field and 45% from beyond the arc. New York has clearly been using Fournier in the dribble hand-off, which is something he didn’t do nearly as much during his time with the Magic. Last year in Orlando, Fournier posted a 10.2% frequency rate off the play type but so far this season, that number has climbed to just over 17%. The Bulls defense is off to a strong start but they haven’t really faced anyone so they could be due for some regression. Opponents are sporting a 7.3% frequency rate off hand-offs against Chicago so far this season, which is a top-five rate in the NBA. Don’t overlook Fournier on this slate.

Andre Drummond is sporting a 70% rebounding rate with Joel Embiid off the floor

Yes, you read that correctly. 70%, Look, it is obviously in a relatively small sample size (51.7 minutes), but we know Drummond has been one of the best rebounders in basketball over the last handful of seasons. Embiid has played every game this season but is clearly not 100% healthy and at home against an awful Pistons team, it is entirely possible the 76ers let him rest up a bit. If that is the case, Drummond will move into the starting lineup and more than likely do whatever he wants against his former team. He is converting a whopping 72% of his rebounding chances this season and faces a bad Pistons team that will have no chance of slowing him down. Obviously keep an eye on Embiid’s status throughout the day but if he sits out, Drummond certainly becomes an elite play.

Dejounte Murray is averaging 89.8 touches per game this season

That number is higher than players like James Harden, Trae Young and Russell Westbrook. It is also the seventh-best mark in basketball. Murray was an obvious breakout candidate entering the season and it appears that is clearly his trajectory, as he is averaging 15.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game in the early going. Last season, Murray was only averaging 69 touches per game and with DeMar DeRozan and others now gone, it is clear that the Spurs are playing through their best player. The floor is so high each slate because of how much he provides in terms of peripherals but because his volume and usage have both skyrocketed, there is clearly a very high ceiling, too.

Last Night’s GPP Results

DraftKings optimal lineup

Devonte’ Graham (40.75)
Cody Martin (30.5)
OG Anunoby (46.75)
Jalen McDaniels (33.0)
Montrezl Harrell (45.25)
Devin Booker (53.5)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (78.5)
Deandre Ayton (53.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Cole Anthony (39.0)
Russell Westbrook (49.3)
Terrance Ross (19.7)
Devin Booker (53.2)
Gary Trent (34.8)
OG Anunoby (50.1)
Scottie Barnes (40.9)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (76.7)
Montrezl Harrell (44.7)

SuperDraft optimal lineup

Russell Westbrook (62.10)
Fred VanVleet (67.6)
Josh Giddey (59.20)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (80.50)
OG Anunoby (78.38)
Jimmy Butler (70.20)
Al Horford (67.04)

Westbrook and the Lakers were obviously fairly popular with LeBron James sidelined (ankle) for the second consecutive contest. Giannis was obviously popular because he’s the best player in fantasy and the Bucks were once again without Jrue Holiday, but OG Anunoby picked up some steam, too. Deandre Ayton going off at a way-too-cheap DraftKings price was certainly nice, too.