NBA DFS Preview – First Look (10/26)

We have a modest five-game NBA slate on Tuesday with some potential blowout concerns that we need to examine. In terms of injury news, there really isn’t much, but as always, make sure you are keeping tabs on everything over the course of the afternoon.

Let’s take an early look at Tuesday night’s action.

Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks

NYK -1.5, total: 218
Pace: PHI (12th), NYK (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Ben Simmons remains out for the 76ers.
• Joel Embiid has been dealing with knee soreness. He’s been questionable ahead of the last two games but has ultimately started. Both he and Andre Drummond (ankle) are questionable again tonight.

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder

GSW -9, total: 223
Pace: GSW (2nd), OKC (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Derrick Favors will sit out for rest purposes. Isaiah Roby and Mike Muscala will pick up some more minutes in his absence.

Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -10, total: 221
Pace: HOU (3rd), DAL (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• None

Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

LAL -3.5, total: 223.5
Pace: LAL (1st), SAS (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James (ankle) is listed as probable for the Lakers. Meanwhile, Talen Horton-Tucker, Wayne Ellington and Kendrick Nunn all remain out.

Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz

UTA -7, total: 218
Pace: DEN (30th), UTA (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• None

Five Stats to Know

Julius Randle is averaging 84.7 touches per game this season

That number is good for the 10th-most in the NBA and is basically even with what it was a season ago (83.6). Randle has transformed into one of the best players in all of fantasy since joining New York, as he is doing everything, whether it’s posting up, rebounding, facilitating, scoring or isolating. In fact, only James Harden is averaging more isolation possessions per game on the young season than Randle (7.7), while his 9.3 points per game off the play type trail only Kevin Durant, which is clearly some elite territory. So far this season, the 76ers are coughing up the ninth-most isolation points per game (9.0), and Tobias Harris won’t be able to slow Randle down, especially in the post. 

Christian Wood is averaging 5.7 post-ups per game 

Through the first few games of the season, Wood’s 5.7 post-ups per game are the sixth-most in all of basketball, as the Rockets are playing through their skilled center down low. Only Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are averaging more field-goal attempts per game from the post than Wood (3.3). Wood is also averaging a healthy 8.7 paint touches per game so far this season, and I think this could be a good spot for him against a Mavericks team that surrendered the seventh-most points per game to the post (5.5) a season ago, along with the league’s highest field-goal percentage off the play type (54.8%). Wood’s metrics are very favorable too, sporting a 23.8% usage rate, 32% rebounding rate and 1.30 fantasy points per minute. I like him to keep it going this evening. 

Keldon Johnson is sporting a 25.8% usage rate so far this season

With the Spurs really relying on their young talent going forward, Johnson is going to have to take on a larger role. And so far in 2021, that has happened. The sophomore’s usage rate is flirting with the 26% mark, which is up by over five percent from his rookie season. Johnson was a productive rebounder last season too, and his current rebounding rate of 11% isn’t as friendly as it was a season ago (21%), but he is making up for it with more usage and more shot attempts. Johnson has attempted 18 field goals in each of his last two games, and if this game against the Lakers stays close, he could play around 35 minutes. I really like him as a mid-range value play at $5,200 on DraftKings. 

Denver is allowing a 70.4% field-goal percentage at the rim

That is the third-highest mark in the NBA to open the season and is really nothing new for this team, as Denver allowed the worst field-goal percentage at the rim in all of basketball a season ago at 68.1%. This team clearly lacks rim protection, as center Nikola Jokic is an amazing player but is not exactly known for his shot-blocking (or even altering) ability. Just ask Lauri Markkanen of the Cavaliers. Anyway, this could bode well for Rudy Gobert down low, as 89% of his 2020 field-goal attempts came at the rim, a top-10 mark in basketball. However, this could also bode well for Donovan Mitchell. He is only averaging 9.0 drives per game so far this season, but I fully expect that number to climb, as Mitchell averaged nearly 16 drives per game last year. 

Tyrese Maxey is averaging 8.7 points per game as the ball-handler out of the pick-and-roll

Philadelphia continues to be without Ben Simmons, and Maxey has assumed a large role for this team. He is operating as the primary ball-handler out of the pick-and-roll, averaging 8.7 points per game off the play type, which is good for the ninth-most in the NBA to begin the season. He is also sporting a healthy 46.2% frequency rate off the play type, while collecting a respectable 23.1% usage rate on the young season. The ball has been in his hands quite a bit, averaging nearly five seconds per touch and nearly six minutes of possession per game. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

• Malcolm Brogdon (38.0)
• Cam Reddish (30.0)
• Terance Mann (36.75)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (62.50)
• Robert Williams (44.50)
• Luke Kennard (37.0)
• Kelly Olynyk (38.0)
• Jonas Valanciunas (60.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

• Fred VanVleet (45.7)
• Cole Anthony (33.3)
• Grayson Allen (28.8)
• Dennis Schroder (44.2)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (62.5)
• Jimmy Butler (56.6)
• Kelly Olynyk (37.2)
• Isaiah Stewart (38.9)
• Jonas Valanciunas (59.1)

Giannis was obviously very popular on Monday, especially with Jrue Holiday sidelined for Milwaukee. Kelly Olynyk also picked up some steam once the Pistons starting lineup came out. He delivered with nearly 40 fantasy points. Finally, the Celtics were without Al Horford on Monday, pushing more people toward Robert Williams, who always draws attention considering how efficient he is on a per-minute basis. Of course, the Celtics going to overtime once again certainly helped.