NBA DFS Preview – First Look (10/25)

After a wild Sunday in the NFL, our attention shifts back to a nine-game NBA DFS slate to kick off the week Monday. So much can (and will) change on any given night in NBA DFS, but this first look gives you a good first impression of the slate.

Monday’s NBA Slate

Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets

BOS -1, total: 224.5
Pace: BOS (6th), CHA (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Terry Rozier (ankle) did not play Sunday and will likely be questionable for this game. Kelly Oubre entered the starting lineup in Rozier’s absence.
• Jaylen Brown sat out for the Celtics over the weekend with a knee injury but hopes to play Monday.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers

MIL -3, total: 229
Pace: MIL (15th), IND (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jrue Holiday is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. George Hill started the last time Holiday was out and with Donte DiVincenzo still sidelined, Grayson Allen’s minutes will remain solidified.
• Meanwhile, Brook Lopez (back) won’t be available for this game, while Bobby Portis is listed as questionable.

Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -10.5, total: 213
Pace: DET (26th), ATL (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Cade Cunningham (ankle) will remain sidelined for the Pistons.

Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -8.5, total: 233.5
Pace: WAS (10th), BKN (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Bradley Beal (groin) was limited in practice and is on track to play Monday, though he is listed as questionable.

Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat

MIA -14, total: 214.5
Pace: ORL (14th), MIA (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyle Lowry was held out of Saturday’s game with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for Monday. Gabe Vincent drew the start in his absence over the weekend.

Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors

CHI -2.5, total: 212
Pace: CHI (21st), TOR (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Pascal Siakam will remain sidelined for the Raptors.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -5.5, total: 226.5
Pace: NOP (17th), MIN (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Josh Hart (quad) is listed as questionable. He’s missed the last two games for the Pelicans.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -10.5, total: 219.5
Pace: CLE (16th), DEN (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Darius Garland (ankle) has missed the last two games and is questionable to play in this contest. Ricky Rubio has started at point guard in his absence, scoring 36 and 44.5 fantasy points.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -3, total: 231
Pace: POR (24th), LAC (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Norman Powell left Saturday’s game with a knee injury and has been ruled out for Monday’s contest. Ben McLemore, Larry Nance and Nassir Little will all see bumps in minutes.

Five Stats to Know

Ricky Rubio is averaging 7.2 minutes of possession per game over his last two outings

Both of those contests came with Darius Garland (ankle) sidelined, as Rubio has started at point guard in his absence. During that span, Rubio has logged 28 and 35 minutes, scoring 36.5 and 44.5 fantasy points. His 7.2 minutes of possession per game during those two starts rank seventh best in the NBA, while averaging 81 touches per game during that span. In nearly 80 minutes with Garland off the floor this season, Rubio is sporting a 23.8% usage rate and impressive 30% assist rate, while averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute in the split. If Garland is ruled out again for this game, Rubio projects as a very strong play once again.

The Washington Wizards are allowing 1.25 points per possession off isolation so far this season

Through the first week or so of the season, that is the third-highest mark in basketball. That isn’t exactly a recipe for success when facing the duo of James Harden and Kevin Durant, who currently rank first and second respectively in isolation possessions per game (8.0, 7.0). Meanwhile, Durant is averaging a league-leading 10.0 points per game off isolation, while shooting an absurd 72.2% off the play type. Harden, meanwhile, leads the NBA in isolation frequency rate (35.7%), all numbers that shouldn’t be too surprising, especially with Brooklyn still without Kyrie Irving in their backcourt. Both Durant and Harden should put together terrific performances in this favorable matchup.

Anthony Edwards is averaging a league-leading 9.0 transition points per game

Edwards is making a highlight play seemingly every single game, often out on the break. The second-year star currently leads the NBA in transition points per game (9.0), while sporting a frequency rate north of 20% off the play type in the early going. He is averaging a gaudy 1.64 points per possession in transition and the overall usage has been fantastic so far this season. Edwards is sporting a 29.1% usage rate and has attempted at least 20 shots in both contests. He just faced this Pelicans team and scored nearly 43 fantasy points and the matchup is strong, as New Orleans is coughing up the eighth-most transition points per game so far this season (25.3), as well as the fourth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (64.2%).

Tyler Herro posted a 33.1% usage rate in Miami’s last game

Herro was outstanding during the preseason, and that has carried over into the start of the regular season. He’s now scored 40-plus fantasy points in each of his first two games, as he’s dominating the usage with the second unit. Last game, Herro posted a 33.1% usage rate and handled the ball more with Kyle Lowry sidelined for the Heat. Lowry is questionable to play tonight but even if he is active, Herro remains firmly in consideration, especially since no one else on Miami’s second unit sees a lot of usage. 

Jonas Valanciunas is averaging 22.0 rebounding chances per game this season

JoVal has always been a very efficient per-minute player and that has continued this season, despite playing for a new team. Through his first three games, Valanciunas is averaging 1.20 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a healthy 37 percent rebounding rate. His 22.0 rebounding opportunities per game are good for the third-most in the NBA in the early-going and unlike years in the past, Valanciunas is logging 33-35 minutes, which is extremely exciting given how good of a per-minute player he is. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

Cole Anthony (66.5)
De’Anthony Melton (27.25)
Josh Giddey (47.0)
Al Horford (44.50)
Mitchell Robinson (35.0)
Ja Morant (65.75)
Julius Randle (68.0)
Richaun Holmes (36.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Ja Morant (61.6)
Jalen Green (45.3)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (52.2)
Cole Anthony (62.2)
Terrence Ross (33.7)
Kent Bazemore (14.2)
Al Horford (47.5)
Julius Randle (69.7)
Joel Embiid (53.8)

SuperDraft optimal lineup

Stephen Curry (60.25)
Ja Morant (82.19)
Seth Curry (74.81)
Julius Randle (87.60)
Tobias Harris (35.94)
Jayson Tatum (60.09)
Al Horford (82.50)