Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article. This will be your go-to destination for game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have five games on tap on Sunday’s main slate. Before we dive in, let’s recap Saturday’s slate.
Last Night’s GPP Performances
The seven-game slate on Saturday was full of chalky value options, especially on DraftKings. Whether it was Chris Duarte, Scottie Barnes, De’Anthony Melton, or Desmond Bane, there’s a very high likelihood that at least two of these players made it into your lineup, as they were all simply underpriced relative to their roles. The news of Kyle Lowry being out also condensed ownership around Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler, leading to a ton of similar builds.
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel, DraftKings, and SuperDraft. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $450k Fadeaway ($100k to first) last night.
- PG: Malcolm Brogdon (45.00)
- SG: Tyler Herro (44.00)
- SF: Desmond Bane (33.00)
- PF: Scottie Barnes (30.00)
- C: Jonas Valanciunas (53.25)
- G: De’Anthony Melton (35.75)
- F: Paul George (66.00)
- UTIL: Nikola Vucevic (54.25)
- Total: 361.25
FanDuel GPP Results
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) last night.
- PG: Ja Morant (40.4)
- PG: Lonzo Ball (38.3)
- SG: Derrick White (41.4)
- SG: Eric Bledsoe (39.7)
- SF: Paul George (62.0)
- SF: Tyler Herro (39.0)
- PF: Kristaps Porzingis (46.5)
- PF: Scottie Barnes (29.6)
- C: Jonas Valanciunas (54.4)
- Total: 391.3
SuperDraft GPP Results
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s $20k Jump Shot ($4k to first) last night.
- G: Derrick White (60.90)
- G: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (62.70)
- G: Tyler Herro (68.00)
- F: OG Anunoby (60.75)
- F: Chris Duarte (56.53)
- F: Paul George (79.80)
- C: Jonas Valanciunas (76.61)
- Total: 465.29
Despite there being seven games on Saturday’s main slate, ownership was rather concentrated around the Heat players (Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo) with Kyle Lowry ruled out, Jonas Valanciunas (especially on FanDuel), and Chris Duarte, whose multiplier on SuperDraft and price on DraftKings was simply wrong.
With Saturday’s slate in the rear-view mirror, let’s preview the Sunday NBA slate.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks
NYK -12, total: 215.5
2021 pace: ORL (14th), NYK (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- Markelle Fultz, Chuma Okeke, and Jonathan Isaac remain out for the Magic. Gary Harris is also listed as questionable.
- Nerlens Noel is currently doubtful and Taj Gibson is listed as questionable for the Knicks.
Boston Celtics @ Houston Rockets
BOS -6, total: 224.5
2021 pace: BOS (6th), HOU (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jaylen Brown is listed as questionable with a knee injury.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
PHI -7.5, total: 216.5
2021 pace: PHI (13th), OKC (T8th)
Situations to monitor:
- Joel Embiid is listed as questionable and Andre Drummond is listed as doubtful for the Sixers. Shake Milton and Ben Simmons remain out.
Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings
GSW -3.5, total: 233.5
2020 pace: GSW (1st), SAC (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- Andre Iguodala is questionable for the Warriors.
- Moe Harkless is questionable for the Kings.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -6.5, total: 220.5
2020 pace: MEM (27th), LAL (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Dillon Brooks remains out for the Grizzlies, while Wayne Ellington, Kendrick Nunn, Trevor Ariza, and Talen Horton-Tucker remain out for the Lakers.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Sunday, October 24th.
Stephen Curry has not finished with less than 30 points in a game against the Kings since February 2018. It’s not the most shocking feat considering that Curry averaged over 30 points per game last season, but it’s impressive nonetheless, especially considering that only one of the five games in that span saw him finish below 35 points. Both the Warriors and Kings rank top-five in the NBA in pace, so the upside for him to not only continue this streak but build on it is very real.
Ja Morant is averaging 13.3 more touches per game this season (85.5) than he did during the 2020-21 season (73.3). He also has a 34.7% usage rate through the Grizzlies’ first two games of the season, a higher rate than Joel Embiid, Bradley Beal, or Stephen Curry has posted this season. With Dillon Brooks out, Morant has assumed just about all of the offensive responsibility and it likely won’t change against the Lakers on Sunday.
While Curry has posted 66 total points through the first two games, it’s been his backcourt mate Jordan Poole who has led the team in usage rate (33.3%). Poole’s shot simply hasn’t fallen, going a combined 12-32 to start the season. Because of this, his price is still sitting at a reasonable level across the industry. In a fast-paced game against a leaky defense, Poole makes for an exceptional mid-tier play with the assumption that he’s going to get hot eventually.
Speaking of high-usage players whose shots haven’t been falling, Orlando rookie Jalen Suggs fits the narrative. Suggs has struggled from the field to open the season (7-31) and also struggled in the preseason, but he was able to provide some peripheral stability in his second game, posting seven rebounds and eight assists. The beauty of his play, however, is that he’s led the entire Magic team in usage rate (26.8%). His price on DraftKings ($5,200) is still reasonable and while the matchup isn’t favorable, he just posted 37.8 DK points against this Knicks team last week. Locked in for a 30-plus-minute starting role, Suggs should be viewed as an elite mid-tier/value piece in tournaments.
Tyrese Maxey has more than doubled his touches per game this season (71) compared to last season (34.8). This obviously has much to do with the absences of Ben Simmons and Shake Milton, but he’s averaging nine more per game than Tobias Harris (62.0) and 14.5 more per game than Joel Embiid (56.5). While he isn’t the number one option on offense, he certainly has the ball in his hands enough to make him a rock-solid mid-tier guard option on all sites.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays
- Stephen Curry ($11,000)
- Joel Embiidf ($10,200)
- Anthony Davis ($9,400)
- Russell Westbrook ($9,300)
- Ja Morant ($9,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays
- Anthony Davis ($10,600)
- LeBron James ($10,200)
- Stephen Curry ($10,200)
- Joel Embiid ($9,900)
- Jayson Tatum ($9,800)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays
- Stephen Curry (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1.05x)
- Joel Embiid (1.05x)
- LeBron James (1.1x)
- Russell Westbrook (1.1x)
