NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/7)

Friday’s nine-game DFS slate around the NBA is absolutely wild. A handful of teams are going to be very much depleted, meaning value will be fairly easy to find. Keep an eye on news throughout the day, while also checking out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for January 7 | NBA DFS First Look

San Antonio Spurs @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -6.5, total: 216.5
Pace: SAS (4th), PHI (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Derrick White, Devin Vassell, Doug McDermott, Keldon Johnson and Thaddeus Young have entered the health and safety protocols.
• For the 76ers, Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey will remain sidelined.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -4.5, total: 231.5
Pace: MIL (8th), BKN (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jrue Holiday entered the league’s health and safety protocols on Thursday, along with Grayson Allen, George Hill and Pat Connaughton. Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable with a non-COVID-19 illness.

Utah Jazz @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -11.5, total: 221
Pace: UTA (9th), TOR (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Seemingly Utah’s entire team is out for this game. Rudy Gobert and Joe Ingles entered the health and safety protocols, while Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic are out. Meanwhile, Jordan Clarkson and Royce O’Neale are listed as questionable.

Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -6.5, total: 225
Pace: WAS (23rd), CHI (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Montrezl Harrell (health and safety protocols) is listed as questionable.
• Alex Caruso will remain sidelined for the Bulls.

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

DAL -2, total: 215
Pace: DAL (29th), HOU (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Luka Doncic (ankle) is doubtful for this game, while Kristaps Porzingis is in the league’s health and safety protocols.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder

MIN -5.5, total: 217
Pace: MIN (7th), OKC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Derrick Favors will miss this game with a back injury.

Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -7.5, total: 225.5
Pace: SAC (5th), DEN (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Richaun Holmes and Chimezie Metu are in the health and safety protocols for the Kings.
• Aaron Gordon is probable with an illness.

Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -3, total: 228
Pace: ATL (18th), LAL (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Trae Young is questionable to play with a back injury, while John Collins is listed as questionable due to conditioning. Bogdan Bogdanovic is also questionable.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trail Blazers

CLE -6, total: 216.5
Pace: CLE (18th), POR (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Larry Nance will remain sidelined for Portland.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Hassan Whiteside is sporting a 43% rebounding rate with Rudy Gobert off the floor this season

The Jazz are the focal point of this slate, as their entire starting five will likely miss this game. Whiteside is listed as questionable but if he’s good to go, he is arguably the top value play of the slate. In nearly 500 minutes with Gobert off the court this season, Whiteside is sporting a massive 43% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute with a 19.3% usage rate in the split. And with Utah also missing Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic and potentially more players, that usage rate could easily climb for Whiteside. Considering the Raptors are also coughing up the second-most putback points per game this season (7.8), the matchup is also very strong for Whiteside. 

Darius Garland posted 104 touches in his first game back Tuesday

Garland missed a handful of games after landing in the health and safety protocols but returned Tuesday. His workload was just as high as usual, if not higher. He logged 36 minutes, touching the ball a whopping 104 times, while possessing the basketball for an insane 9.6 minutes, a number that would lead the NBA over the course of the season. With Collin Sexton and now Ricky Rubio out for the season, Cleveland doesn’t really have anyone to handle the ball outside of Garland, which means he should log huge minutes and dominate the ball-handling duties for the rest of the season. 

Jalen Brunson sees a 5.4% bump in usage rate with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis off the floor

Both Doncic and Porzingis are likely to miss this game, which means Brunson will be asked to do a lot more for the Mavericks. With both players off the floor this season, Brunson is sporting a healthy 28.6% usage rate, up by over five percent from his overall usage rate. He is also averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute while sporting a 20% assist rate in the split. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Anyone on the Utah Jazz — Seriously. Odds are, if a player is in the Utah rotation for Friday’s game, they are viable for DFS.

Bryn Forbes vs. PHI — The Spurs will be missing Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Doug McDermott, while Lonnie Walker is questionable. With just White and Johnson off the floor this season, Forbes is sporting a solid 23.2% usage rate.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Chris Paul (54.75)
Damion Lee (31.5)
Cameron Johnson (41.75)
Jayson Tatum (65.0)
Jalen Smith (39.5)
Brandon Ingram (55.25)
Evan Fournier (62.0)
Marcus Morris (42.0)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Dennis Schroder (29.5)
Chris Paul (52.6)
Damion Lee (35.3)
Evan Fournier (57.6)
Cameron Johnson (41.9)
Brandon Ingram (51.2)
Marcus Morris (40.1)
Jayson Tatum (63.7)
Robert Williams (45.3)

Marcus Morris has been very good in the absence of Paul George as of late, having now scored at least 20 real points in six of his last seven games. And over the last week, he is sporting a 25% usage rate, while averaging a fantasy point per minute. Meanwhile, we saw another strong game from Jalen Smith, who continues to fill in at center for both Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee. Over his last week of play, Smith is averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute to go along with a 22.6% usage rate and 38% rebounding rate. In four starts this season, Smith is averaging 17.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game.