Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have four games on Thursday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for January 6 | NBA DFS First Look
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks
BOS -1.5, total: 209.0
Pace: BOS (22nd), NYK (29th)
Situations to monitor:
- Payton Pritchard has been ruled out for the Celtics
- Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker have been ruled out for the Knicks while Nerlens Noel is listed as questionable.
Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -12.5, total: 218.5
Pace: DET (10th), MEM (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk are out for the Pistons while Frank Jackson, Cory Joseph and Isaiah Stewart are listed as questionable.
- Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton are questionable for the Grizzlies while John Konchar has been ruled out.
Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans
GSW -2.5, total: 216.5
Pace: GSW (15th), NOP (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Stephen Curry is listed as questionable, while Klay Thompson, James Wiseman, Otto Porter and Andre Iguodala are listed as out for the Warriors.
- Zion Williamson, Tomas Satoransky and Kira Lewis remain out for the Pelicans.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -11, total: 220.5
Pace: LAC (14th), PHO (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- Paul George, Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein remain out for the Suns. Nicolas Batum and Brandon Boston are listed as questionable.
- Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, Frank Kaminsky, Landry Shamet and Jae Crowder remain out for the Suns.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Thursday.
With Stephen Curry off the floor this season, Jordan Poole leads the Warriors with a 32.3% usage rate
The status of Curry is up in the air as he nurses an injury he picked up Wednesday, but if he ends up sitting, we’ll get a front-row seat to the Jordan Poole show. He’s averaged 25.7 points and 4.5 assists per-36-minutes with Curry off the floor, posting 39.08 DK points per 36 minutes, making him an elite target on such a small slate if Curry sits.
With both Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee off the floor this season, Jalen Smith has averaged 43.25 DraftKings points per-36-minutes
The two Phoenix bigs remain out Thursday, paving the way for another Jalen Smith start. He’s posted a 21.3% usage rate and 21.0% rebounding rate, averaging 20.16 points and 14.43 rebounds per 36 minutes in this scenario, making him an ultra-strong mid-range play.
With Paul George, Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein off the court this season, Serge Ibaka has posted a 23.9% usage rate and 14.3% rebounding rate
His minutes are still loosely limited as he’s working his way back from a lengthy absence stemming back to last season, but Ibaka’s per-minute production (0.98 DKP/min) have been on par with what we’ve come to expect of him. For under $5,000 in a matchup where he should match up well against Jalen Smith, Ibaka is another strong value play.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Stephen Curry ($11,000) — Questionable
- Jayson Tatum ($10,200)
- Julius Randle ($10,000)
- Ja Morant ($9,200)
- Jaylen Brown ($9,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Stephen Curry ($10,800)
- Ja Morant ($10,200)
- Jayson Tatum ($9,800)
- Julius Randle ($9,000)
- Jaylen Brown ($9,000)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Stephen Curry (1x)
- Ja Morant (1.1x)
- Jayson Tatum (1.15x)
- Julius Randle (1.15x)
- Jaylen Brown (1.2x)
With Thursday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Wednesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on DraftKings from Wednesday’s slate:
- PG: Lance Stephenson (41.75)
- SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (48.5)
- SF: Kevin Huerter (49.75)
- PF: Royce O’Neale (41.25)
- C: Nikola Jokic (73.75)
- G: Seth Curry (49.75)
- F: Domantas Sabonis (63.0)
- UTIL: Bojan Bogdanovic (61.75)
Total: 429.5
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel from Wednesday’s slate:
- PG: Anfernee Simons (44.7)
- PG: Seth Curry (45.4)
- SG: Kevin Huerter (47.7)
- SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (50.2)
- SF: Tobias Harris (47.8)
- SF: Bojan Bogdanovic (59.6)
- PF: Royce O’Neale (39.7)
- PF: Pascal Siakam (56.0)
- C: Nikola Jokic (68.7)
Total: 459.8
If you’re looking for an action-packed slate, Wednesday was the perfect slate for you. With 11 games, high scorers were plentiful, as chalk value in Anfernee Simons, Kevin Huerter and Royce O’Neale performed well. Pairing that with the fact that the top spend-up of the slate, Nikola Jokic, went for nearly 7x and you needed to hit the nail on the head if you wanted a takedown.
