Week 14 DVOA NFL Picks
Aaron Schatz
The week kicks off with a nice eight-game slate that at the moment seems pretty balanced. This slate doesn’t feature Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Luka Doncic but does have plenty of strong plays in the mid-range. Let’s take an early look, and as always, be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.
NBA Vegas Data for January 31 | NBA DFS First Look
New Orleans Pelicans @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -7.5, total: 210.5
Pace: NOP (22nd), CLE (24th)
Situations to monitor:
- Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas and Josh Hart are all listed as questionable for the Pelicans.
- Lauri Markkanen will remain sidelined for Cleveland with his ankle injury.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers
IND -1.5, total: 220.5
Pace: LAC (14th), IND (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner will remain out for the Pacers, while Goga Bitadze (foot) is listed as questionable.
- Nicolas Batum (back) did not play on Sunday for the Clippers and is questionable for Monday’s contest.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -3.5, total: 219
Pace: MEM (6th), PHI (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Dillon Brooks (ankle) will remain sidelined. Meanwhile, Tyus Jones is questionable for the Grizzlies.
- For Philadelphia, Shake Milton will remain out, and Furkan Korkmaz (knee) is listed as questionable.
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
BOS -3.5, total: 208
Pace: MIA (29th), BOS (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jimmy Butler is dealing with an ankle sprain and is listed as questionable for Miami. Kyle Lowry will miss his eighth straight game due to personal reasons, while Omer Yurtseven has been placed in the health and safety protocols.
Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -1.5, total: 219.5
Pace: TOR (26th), ATL (19th)
Situations to monitor:
- None.
Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks
NYK -5.5, total: 214.5
Pace: SAC (6th), NYK (30th)
Situations to monitor:
- De’Aaron Fox (ankle) is once again listed as questionable for the Kings. Marvin Bagley, meanwhile, has been ruled out with an ankle sprain.
- Nerlens Noel is listed as probable for New York.
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
GSW -10.5, total: 230
Pace: GSW (12th), HOU (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Draymond Green and Otto Porter will be out for the Warriors.
- Kevin Porter (health and safety protocols) is listed as questionable for the Rockets.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
POR -4, total: 218.5
Pace: POR (18th), OKC (16th)
Situations to monitor:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a sprained ankle and will be re-evaluated after the All-Star break for OKC.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Josh Giddey is sporting a 22% assist rate with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor this season.
The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander until after the All-Star break, which is obviously a huge loss for their ball club. In his absence, the rookie Josh Giddey is going to dominate the usage and ball-handling duties for the Thunder. With Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor this season, Giddey sees an uptick in usage rate (23.1%), assist rate (22%), fantasy points per minute (1.08) and rebounding rate (26%). Anytime a player is sporting both assist and rebounding rates over 20%, you can expect strong fantasy production to follow. Giddey recorded a triple-double in the last game that Gilgeous-Alexander missed. And in that same game, Giddey recorded 96 touches, up from his season average of 75.6 touches per game. In a good matchup against Portland, Giddey is a fantastic option on Monday’s slate.
Domantas Sabonis is averaging 102 touches per game since returning to the lineup
It has only been two games, but during that span, Domantas Sabonis has been dominant. He is averaging over 102 touches per game, while also averaging 23 rebounding opportunities per game. With Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner sidelined, the entire Pacers offense is going through Sabonis, who is sporting a 34% rebounding rate, 16% assist rate and 22% usage rate with both players off the floor this season. He’s also averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute in the split. The usage and involvement is amazing for Sabonis, and his minutes have been very strong since returning from injury.
Klay Thompson is averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute over the last week.
Klay Thompson has yet to reach 30 minutes in a game since making his season debut, but he’s getting closer, logging 27 minutes in each of the last two contests. He’s also starting to shake some of the rust off, averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute over the last week, while sporting a near 26% usage rate during that stretch. Thompson is a very interesting GPP play. If he gets to the 30-minute mark, he could absolutely smash, especially against a Rockets defense that is coughing up the most points per game off screens on the season (5.8) and the sixth-most points per possession off the play type (1.03). Thompson, meanwhile, is averaging 3.4 points per game off screens so far this season, second-most in the league behind teammate Stephen Curry.
Davion Mitchell is sporting a 21% usage rate with De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley off the floor this season.
De’Aaron Fox has been out of Sacramento’s lineup over the last four games with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable again. With Fox out of the lineup, Davion Mitchell has stepped into the starting lineup and has taken on a larger role, attempting at least 14 field goals in each of his last three games. Marvin Bagley has also been ruled out. With both Bagley and Fox off the court this season, Mitchell is sporting a very solid 21% usage rate and 14% assist rate. If Fox is out again, Mitchell remains a very solid play Monday.
Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Chimezie Metu vs. NYK- With Terence Davis and Marvin Bagley out, Chimezie Metu should be locked into 27-30 minutes, especially if De’Aaron Fox also misses the game. He is averaging 0.91 fantasy points per minute with both Fox and Bagley off the floor this season to go along with a solid 24% rebounding rate and 19.7% usage rate.
Ty Jerome vs. POR- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will miss some time for the Thunder, which means Ty Jerome could enter the starting lineup. The last time Gilgeous-Alexander missed a game, Jerome got the start and played 30 minutes. He is only $3,300 on DraftKings for Monday’s slate.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
DraftKings optimal lineup
Luka Doncic (69.5)
Cade Cunningham (58)
Lonnie Walker IV (33.75)
Marquese Chriss (32.5)
Karl-Anthony Towns (67.75)
Chris Paul (63.5)
Jaden McDaniels (31)
Tre Jones (32.25)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Tre Jones (32.1)
Chris Paul (62.1)
Cade Cunningham (57)
Luka Doncic (61.9)
Saddiq Bey (41.7)
Mikal Bridges (40.1)
Doug McDermott (34.8)
Marquese Chriss (38.3)
Karl-Anthony Towns (64.2)
