NBA DFS Preview - First Look (1/30)

If you’re a Buffalo Bills fine like myself and still sick to your stomach, watching the NFL today might not be in your plans. Fear not, however, as the NBA has all-day action. Our focus will be on the five-game main slate. Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

CLE -8.5, total: 210.5

Pace: CLE (24th), DET (11th)

Situations to monitor:

Jerami Grant has cleared the health and safety protocols but will remain out for conditioning reasons.
Lauri Markkanen (ankle) will remain sidelined for Cleveland.

Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -6.5, total: 227.5

Pace: DEN (23rd), MIL (9th)

Situations to monitor:

Will Barton (illness) is listed as probable.

Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic

DAL -5.5, total: 211

Pace: DAL (28th), ORL (12th)

Situations to monitor:

Kristaps Porzingis left Saturday’s game with right knee soreness and did not return. He has been ruled out for Sunday.

Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves

UTA -1, total: 227

Pace: UTA (16th), MIN (3rd)

Situations to monitor

Rudy Gobert (calf) has been ruled out for a fourth consecutive game. Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable with a concussion.
For Minnesota, both D’Angelo Russell (shin) and Patrick Beverley (ankle) are listed as questionable.

San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -13.5, total: 228

Pace: SAS (5th), PHX (10th)

Situations to monitor

The Spurs have ruled out Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl for this game.
Phoenix listed Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, and Jae Crowder as questionable.

Stats to Know

Maxi Kleber is sporting a 25% rebounding rate with Kristaps Porzingis on the bench this season.

The Mavericks will be without Porzingis for Sunday’s game against Orlando and with KP playing just 11 minutes on Saturday, Kleber benefited. He had 14 rebounding opportunities and converted all of them. Kleber finished the game with 15 points to go along with those 14 boards. With Porzingis off the floor this season, Kleber is sporting a solid 25% rebounding rate and averaging a respectable 0.81 fantasy points per minute.

The Detroit Pistons are allowing the second-most points per possession to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll (0.95).

This is a tremendous matchup for multiple players from Cleveland, most notably Darius Garland. He’ll face a weak Pistons defense that is allowing the second-most points per possession (0.95) and the highest field goal percentage (46%) to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll. Garland, meanwhile, is top-12 in both pick and roll possessions (8.3) and points (7.4), while also shooting nearly 48% from the field off of the play type. Garland’s price has dropped after a few underwhelming games, and I’ll be taking advantage of that.

Value Plays

Lonnie Walker or Tre Jones vs PHX

With the Spurs ruling out Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, and Derrick White, there will be plenty of value in San Antonio on Saturday. With all three players off the floor this season, Walker’s usage rate climbs to 25.4%. Jones’ assist rate skyrockets to 21% while also sporting a healthy 16% rebounding rate.

Maxi Kleber vs ORL

As we discussed above, Kleber benefited in the rebounding department when Porzingis took an early exit from the Mavs’ previous game. He is sporting a solid 25% rebounding rate with Porzingis off the floor this season.