NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/23)

While there is more playoff football this afternoon, we also have a strong nine-game main slate in the NBA. Be sure to keep tabs on news throughout the day and as always, check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat

MIA -4.5, total: 216.5

Pace: LAL (6th), MIA (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro will remain out for the Heat, while P.J. Tucker is questionable with a calf injury.
• Anthony Davis is listed as questionable for the Lakers. He hasn’t played since December 17th.

Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic

CHI -7, total: 215.5

Pace: CHI (15th), ORL (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine will remain sidelined, and Alex Caruso will now miss 6-8 weeks with a broken wrist. 
• For Orlando, RJ Hampton is out and Terrence Ross is listed as questionable with a knee injury. 

Portland Trail Blazers @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -7.5, total: 214.5

Pace: POR (20th), TOR (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Norman Powell will remain out due to a personal matter, while Larry Nance is once again out for Portland.

Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -2.5, total: 236

Pace: ATL (22nd), CHA (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Bogdan Bogdanovic is out with a knee injury, while both Kevin Huerter (hip) and Danilo Gallinari (Achilles) are listed as questionable.

Philadelphia 76ers @ San Antonio Spurs

PHI -1, total: 222.5

Pace: PHI (29th), SAS (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Seth Curry, Shake Milton, Danny Green, and Matisse Thybulle are all out for Philadelphia. 

Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -3, total: 217.5

Pace: MEM (7th), DAL (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, and Tyus Jones will all remain out. Meanwhile, Steven Adams (ankle) and Brandon Clarke (back) are listed as questionable.

Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -11.5, total: 217.5

Pace: DET (11th), DEN (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kelly Olynyk has entered the health and safety protocols for Detroit.
• Jeff Green is listed as questionable with a quad injury.

Brooklyn Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -2, total: 236

Pace: BKN (9th), MIN (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Nicolas Claxton is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. 
• Patrick Beverley is listed as questionable for Minnesota with an ankle injury.

Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -4.5, total: 221.5

Pace: GSW (12th), UTA (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Donovan Mitchell will miss his third straight game with a concussion. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Bojan Bogdanovic is listed as probable.
• Draymond Green remains out with a calf injury for the Warriors.

Stats to Know

Fred VanVleet has played 39-plus minutes in seven consecutive games.

As usual, the Toronto starting five is playing massive minutes right now, especially VanVleet. He has played at least 39 minutes in each of his last seven games while playing 40 or more minutes in five of those contests. During that seven-game span, VanVleet has dominated the usage for Toronto, ranking fourth in the NBA in touches per game (95.6) and ninth in potential assists per game (15.6). VanVleet has also recorded double-digit assists in three of his last five games and gets a favorable matchup with a weak Portland defense that is allowing the eighth-worst field goal percentage in basketball to opposing players off handoffs (42.0%). VanVleet, meanwhile, is averaging 2.0 points per game off the play type, tied for the seventh-most in the NBA.

Joel Embiid is averaging 1.76 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks.

My goodness. Embiid has been one of the most dominant players in the NBA as of late. During the month of January, he is averaging 33.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. And over the last two weeks, he is sporting a usage rate north of 41% to go along with 1.76 fantasy points per minute, a 33% rebounding rate, and a solid 12% assist rate. In 10 games this month, Embiid is averaging a league-leading 10.8 post-ups per game. He is doing every single thing for Philadelphia right now and gets a solid matchup against a San Antonio team that is coughing up the sixth-most points per possession to the post (1.0), as well as the seventh-most points per game off the play type (5.0). And despite his recent stretch of games, Embiid’s price really hasn’t moved over on DraftKings. 

Trae Young is averaging 18.6 drives per game on the season.

That is good for the fourth-most in the NBA, as it remains a huge part of Young’s game. This is an excellent spot for him, facing a Charlotte team that plays fast and struggles to defend – especially at the rim. The Hornets are allowing the third-worst field goal percentage from within six feet of the basket on the year (62.6%), which is good news for Young, as he is averaging 8.8 points and 10.1 points per game off drives. Young is averaging right around 47 DraftKings points per game in two meetings with the Hornets this season and I like him to have another strong game on Sunday.

Cole Anthony’s touches per game are down by 10 per game since Jalen Suggs’ return.

Over the last five games (all with Suggs back in the lineup), Anthony is averaging around 61 touches per game, down from his season average of 71 per game. And in that same five-game span, Anthony is averaging just 0.85 fantasy points per minute. Suggs has taken away ball-handling duties from Anthony, especially now that he is in the starting lineup and has logged 34 and 35 minutes over his last two games. And during that two-game stretch, Suggs is averaging nearly 10 more touches per game than Anthony. It’s difficult to be too excited about him for fantasy purposes at the moment. 

Value Plays

Furkan Korkmaz vs. SAS 

Korkmaz was awful in Philadelphia’s last game but will still be relied on to play heavy minutes with Seth Curry, Shake Milton, Danny Green, and Matisse Thybulle sidelined. With both Curry and Green off of the floor this season, Korkmaz is sporting a robust 21.2% usage rate.

Ziaire Williams vs. DAL

With Memphis currently missing Desmond Bane, Kyle Anderson, Tyus Jones, and Dillon Brooks, Williams continues to start and has now logged 33 and 31 minutes over the last two games. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (57.25)
• Tyrese Haliburton (53.5)
• Khris Middleton (52.5)
• Pat Connaughton (32.75)
• Bismack Biyombo (51.25)
• Chris Paul (54.5)
• Mikal Bridges (39.5)
• Goga Bitadze (35.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (57.8)
• Chris Paul (54.8)
• Terence Davis (34.9)
• Tyrese Haliburton (48.2)
• Pat Connaughton (33.5)
• Khris Middleton (49.7)
• Harrison Barnes (40.7)
• Mikal Bridges (39.2)
• Bismack Biyombo (51.1)

Once again, JaVale McGee started at center for the injured Deandre Ayton – but it was Bismack Biyombo who was more productive, scoring 21 points to go along with 13 rebounds, five assists, one steal, and two blocks in 30 minutes off the bench. Meanwhile, Khris Middleton had a huge game with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined, scoring 34 points to go along with six rebounds and five assists. He posted a 30% usage rate in the game.