NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/19)

This week in the NBA is crazy. After a two-game DFS slate Tuesday, Wednesday presents a massive 13-gamer, something we haven’t seen in quite some time. Slates of this size can be overwhelming, so let’s take an early look and break everything down.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for January 19 | NBA DFS First Look

Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards

WAS -1, total: 229
Pace: BKN (7th), WAS (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Kevin Durant will be out for the next 4-6 weeks, while Nicolas Claxton will miss his fifth straight game with a hamstring injury. 

Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -12, total: 213
Pace: ORL (13th), PHI (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Wendell Carter (hamstring) is once again questionable for the Magic.
• For Philadelphia, Danny Green, Shake Milton and Matisse Thybulle have been ruled out.

Charlotte Hornets @ Boston Celtics

BOS -6, total: 220.5
Pace: CHA (2nd), BOS (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Marcus Smart and Kelly Oubre (health and safety protocols) are both listed as questionable for this game.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -2, total: 233
Pace: MIN (3rd), ATL (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic have both been ruled out for the Hawks.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Miami Heat

MIA -8.5, total: 214.5
Pace: POR (16th), MIA (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Norman Powell (personal) is listed as doubtful for Portland, while Larry Nance remains sidelined.
• Kyle Lowry is also dealing with a personal matter and will miss his second straight game.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls

CLE -2.5, total: 214
Pace: CLE (23rd), CHI (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine are out for the Bulls, while Alex Caruso is listed as questionable. 
• For the Cavaliers, both Lamar Stevens and Rajon Rondo have been ruled out.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -5, total: 225.5
Pace: MEM (6th), MIL (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson have all been ruled out for the Grizzlies.
• Jrue Holiday (ankle) is listed as questionable for Milwaukee. 

Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -3.5, total: 206.5
Pace: TOR (25th), DAL (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Gary Trent has missed the last five games with an ankle injury. He is once again listed as questionable, while Khem Birch remains out.
• Maxi Kleber is listed as questionable for Dallas.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

SAS -6, total: 220.5
Pace: OKC (16th), SAS (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz

UTA -12, total: 234
Pace: HOU (1st), UTA (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Donovan Mitchell has entered concussion protocol and will miss this game, while Hassan Whiteside remains in the health and safety protocols. 

Los Angeles Clippers @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -7, total: 213
Pace: LAC (15th), DEN (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Luke Kennard is questionable for the Clippers.

Detroit Pistons @ Sacramento Kings

SAC -5.5, total: 221
Pace: DET (11th), SAC (5th)

Situations to monitor: 

• Tyrese Haliburton is in the health and safety protocols for the Kings.

Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -5, total: 222.5
Pace: IND (22nd), LAL (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Myles Turner (foot) will miss at least the next two weeks, while Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) is listed as questionable.
• Carmelo Anthony is questionable with a back injury.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Bojan Bogdanovic sees a 4.7% bump in usage rate with Donovan Mitchell off the floor this season

The Jazz will be without Mitchell for this game against the Rockets on Wednesday, making Utah a much more interesting team for fantasy purposes. With Mitchell off the court over the course of the season, Bogdanovic sees his usage rate climb by nearly five percent, putting him at an overall rate of 27.5% in the split. He is also averaging just under a fantasy point per minute with Mitchell off the floor, while sporting a respectable 15% rebounding rate. This is also a fantastic matchup for Bogdanovic, as the Rockets rank 28th against scorers, per FTN’s advanced DVP tool. They also continue to allow the most transition points per game (24.1), which bodes well for Bogdanovic, who is averaging 4.1 transition points per contest, tied for the 15th in the NBA. 

The Pistons are allowing a 35.6% field goal percentage off non-corner threes this season

Detroit is coming off the front end of a back-to-back, making this an advantageous spot for Sacramento. The Kings will be without Tyrese Haliburton, which makes someone like Buddy Hield more interesting than usual. He scored 27 points and just over 45 fantasy points last game and while he did remain the sixth man, Hield is averaging right under a fantasy point per minute with Haliburton off the floor. Don’t be surprised if Hield gets hot from the field here, as the Pistons are allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage off non-corner threes this season, which makes up a whopping 59% of Hield’s field goal attempts on the year. Detroit is also allowing the fourth-most points per possession (1.10) and third-highest field goal percentage (46.1%) off screens. Hield, meanwhile, is averaging 3.1 points per game off screens, the fourth most in basketball. 

Ayo Dosunmu is sporting a 21% assist rate over the last two games

With Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball sidelined for the Bulls, it was expected that Coby White would operate as the primary ball-handler. However, it has been Dosunmu who has benefited, averaging nearly 70 touches per game (2nd on the team) and sporting a 21% assist rate over the last two games. During that span, he has posted fantastic stat lines of 21/4/10 and 15/10/6/2/4. Now he isn’t going to continue to average 1.18 fantasy points per minute, but he has a very strong role right now and even with Alex Caruso likely back for Wednesday’s game, his minutes should be limited. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

De’Anthony Melton vs. MIL — The Grizzlies are going to be shorthanded for this game, as Desmond Bane, Kyle Anderson and Dillon Brooks have all been ruled out. With all three players off the floor this season, Melton is sporting a 23.4% usage rate and 25% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute. 

De’Andre Hunter vs. MIN — Hunter has been a strong value play for a week or so now and it continues Wednesday. Atlanta will be without Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic, which should continue to solidify Hunter’s minutes. He’s logged at least 30 minutes in each of his last three games.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Stephen Curry (41.25)
Klay Thompson (35.75)
Evan Fournier (43.5)
Julius Randle (56.25)
Isaiah Stewart (30.75)
Hamidou Diallo (37.25)
Jonathan Kuminga (29.0)
Rodney McGruder (30.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Patrick Beverley (33.0)
Stephen Curry (41.6)
Klay Thompson (35.6)
Evan Fournier (41.8)
Andrew Wiggins (35.1)
Hamidou Diallo (35.6)
Isaiah Stewart (29.2)
Trey Lyles (23.0)
Julius Randle (60.3)