NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/11)

Our attention shifts to a six-game NBA slate on Tuesday. 

This is a first look at the slate, but as you know, so much is going to change, making it imperative to keep an eye on the news throughout the day. And as always, be sure to check out the amazing FTN NBA Optimizer. 

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Washington Wizards

WAS -9, total: 217
Pace: OKC (17th), WAS (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Phoenix Suns @ Toronto Raptors

PHX -3.5, total: 223
Pace: PHX (6th), TOR (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent are both listed as questionable for the Raptors.
• Cameron Johnson has been ruled out for the Suns with a left ankle sprain.

Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -13.5, total: 221
Pace: DET (10th), CHI (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk remain sidelined for the Pistons.
• Alex Caruso, meanwhile, remains sidelined for the Bulls.

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies

GSW -2, total: 220
Pace: GSW (14th), MEM (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• Draymond Green has been ruled out with a calf injury. Meanwhile, both Otto Porter and Gary Payton II are listed as questionable.
• Dillon Brooks is expected to miss 3-5 weeks with an ankle injury, while Steven Adams is likely to miss this game, as he was placed in the health and safety protocols.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans

MIN -4, total: 225.5
Pace: MIN (5th), NOP (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Patrick Beverley is questionable with a groin injury.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers

DEN -2.5, total: 213
Pace: DEN (26th), LAC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Will Barton was placed in the health and safety protocols.
• Luke Kennard, Isaiah Hartenstein and Justise Winslow have been ruled out for the Clippers.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Klay Thompson sported a 42.6% usage rate in his 2022 debut.

In his first appearance since the 2019 NBA Finals, Klay Thompson was expected to play 15-20 minutes. That was the case, as he logged 20 minutes against the Cavaliers. In those 20 minutes, Thompson was not shy, attempting 17 shots and sporting a usage rate north of 42%. It is highly unlikely he plays huge minutes in his second game back, but if we get any word that his minutes limit will be increased a bit, he could be worth a look in tournaments, especially with Draymond Green out and both Otto Porter and Gary Payton questionable for this game.

Bradley Beal is averaging 1.0 fantasy points per minute with Spencer Dinwiddie on the court.

Averaging a fantasy point per minute sounds solid, but considering Bradley Beal is usually one of the higher-priced players on a given slate, it is worth noting that he is so much better with Spencer Dinwiddie out of the lineup. His fantasy points per minute jumps from 1.0 with Dinwiddie on the floor to 1.23 with him off the floor, which usually makes Beal a fade for me whenever Dinwiddie is active for the Wizards, like tonight. Beal is also sporting a 20% assist rate with Dinwiddie off the court, compared to a 15% assist rate with him off the court.

Jaren Jackson is averaging 17.5 rebounding chances per game over his last two outings.

Both of those games have come with Steven Adams (health and safety protocols) sidelined. Jaren Jackson has been starting at center in Adams’ absence, giving him more of a ceiling and a better chance of grabbing rebounds. He is averaging nearly 18 rebounding opportunities per game over the last two contests, up from his season average of 10.8. And with Adams off the floor over the course of the season, Jackson is sporting a 20% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.18 fantasy points per minute in the split. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Jae Crowder vs. TOR- When healthy, Jae Crowder is usually locked into strong minutes for the Suns. But now with Cameron Johnson out, Crowder should play 32-35 minutes and is under $4,000 on DraftKings and just $4,100 on FanDuel.

Juan Toscano-Anderson vs MEM- With Draymond Green out last game, Juan Toscano-Anderson checked in for Green after he stepped onto the floor for the opening tip to honor Klay Thompson’s return. It is possible he starts again on Tuesday, especially if Otto Porter and/or Gary Payton are ruled out. He is a much better play on FanDuel where he is SF/PF eligible, whereas on DraftKings he is listed as center only.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

• Cade Cunningham (50.25)
• Ben McLemore (33.75)
• Khris Middleton (57.75)
• Robert Covington (41.5)
• Hassan Whiteside (51)
• Anfernee Simons (48)
• Jaylen Brown (58.75)
• Mitchell Robinson (37.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

• Ben McLemore (33)
• Cade Cunningham (49.2)
• RJ Barrett (42.6)
• Khris Middleton (53.9)
• Robert Covington (44.3)
• Jaylen Brown (56)
• Jarrett Allen (48.9)
• Robert Williams (48.9)
• Hassan Whiteside (53.3)

After a handful of underwhelming starts, we finally saw the ceiling from Hassan Whiteside, who continues to start in the absence of Rudy Gobert. Meanwhile, the value plays from Portland (Ben McLemore, Robert Covington) definitely came through.