Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The FTN Betting Breakdown is a new article series we are featuring this year on FTNBets where we will have a daily breakdown of the day’s NBA betting slate. This breakdown will feature key injury news and updates and how players and teams are affected by said news to give you the opportunity to potentially jump on some lines.
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Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat (-6.5)
Total: 217.5
Key injuries
DET: Killian Hayes OUT
MIA: Jimmy Butler OUT, Tyler Herro QUEST, Meyers Leonard OUT
On MLK Day, the afternoon matinee between the Pistons and the Heat brings plenty of betting value to the forefront, especially with Jimmy Butler out and Tyler Herro questionable. One of the more popular betting markets in NBA player props is points + rebounds + assists, and Bam Adebayo’s sits at 33.5. Adebayo is averaging just under this total on the season, but sees an increased role without Butler and certainly without Herro. Keep an eye on Herro’s status, but the Adebayo PRA is a market to watch.
For the Pistons, Jerami Grant has taken 19 shots in three straight games and is averaging 24.8 points per game on the season. His points prop is just 22.5 today at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grant has gone under 22.5 just twice this season, scoring 22 points in both of those games.
This game has been delayed due to health protocols.
San Antonio Spurs (-2) at Portland Trail Blazers
Total: 226
Key injuries
SAS: Derrick White OUT
POR: CJ McCollum OUT, Jusuf Nurkic OUT, Zach Collins OUT
The Spurs-Blazers is certainly an attractive game from a player prop perspective, as Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum are both out for Portland. It should be the Damian Lillard show, as his points prop is a massive 33.5 currently on DraftKings with juice to the over. While that is a high number, there are ways to get in on the Lillard action without having to pay the juice on a high number, even though it is attractive.
Lillard has props of 4.5 three-pointers made, 48.5 points + rebounds + assists, and is +104 to record a double-double.
Last season without McCollum, Lillard averaged 44 points per game per our NBA splits tool. Add in Nurkic’s injury as well and it will be the Dame Lillard show in Portland. For the Spurs, the ball is spread around a bit so focusing the energy on the Blazers is the way to go for this one.
Phoenix Suns (-5.5) at Memphis Grizzlies
Total: 218.5
Key injuries
PHX: Cameron Payne QUES, Dario Saric OUT
MEM: Jonas Valanciunas OUT, Jaren Jackson Jr. OUT
When you think about the Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies, the first thing that comes to mind is all the flash and athleticism between the two teams. That would lead you to believe that betting the over on one of the day's lowest totals would be a good value. Let’s take a deeper look there, as the total is 218.5.
In the Suns' last five games, the totals have been: 235, 242, 215, 238, 219. That is four games over the 218.5 total and just one under. On the other hand, the Grizzlies have gone under quite often of late. There is still room to believe the over is a safe bet here though, as Jonas Valanciunas is out which could increase the pace of play in itself. In addition, Ja Morant is back for the Grizzlies. In the three full games Morant played before his injury, the point totals were 250, 234, and 227.
Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) at Brooklyn Nets
Total: 239
Key injuries
MIL: N/A
BKN: Kyrie Irving QUEST
Both teams are essentially healthy, and this could certainly be an Eastern Conference Finals preview. Personally, the player props market for the Nets is something to avoid if Kyrie Irving does play. If he is out, you can certainly look to bet the over on James Harden props after a terrific performance in his first game with Brooklyn.
On the other side, Brook Lopez’s three-pointers are set at 2.5 with a price of +152. Usually, when you see a prop for +152 to the over, it’s worth looking at with the potential return on investment. Given the high total of 239 and the projected pace of this game, there will be plenty of shots available for Lopez. He has made three or more three-pointers in five of thirteen games this season and is a high volume three-point shooter when the Bucks are running.
This is where betting strategy comes into play, however. For that prop to hit, that would mean a minimum of nine total points from Lopez with three three-pointers. Lopez’ points prop is 11.5, so only three more total points and you can have more outs for success.
Update: Kyrie Irving is OUT. James Harden props get a boost in value.
Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors (-5)
Total: 220
Key injuries
DAL: Tim Hardaway Jr QUES, Josh Richardson OUT, Dorian Finney-Smith OUT, Maxi Kleber OUT, Dwight Powell OUT
TOR: Alex Len OUT
The story of the last two weeks for the Dallas Mavericks has been just how many games some key players have missed from injury or COVID-related issues, but also the play of Luka Doncic.
Doncic has 10 or more rebounds and nine or more assists in four straight games and has scored 28 or more points in three straight. He was one rebound and one assist shy of six straight triple-doubles and has already done so in back-to-back games. While the Mavericks’ player props are not posted as of yet, be sure to keep an eye on the price for Doncic to get a triple-double.
In addition, Pascal Siakam’s assist prop is just 3.5 tonight. Siakam is averaging 4.9 per game on the season and has gone under four assists just once in the last four games. While Siakam’s usage has decreased in the last week or so with Chris Boucher playing more minutes, the opportunities for assists remain.
Houston Rockets (-1.5) at Chicago Bulls
Total: 226
Key injuries
HOU: John Wall OUT, Danuel House OUT, Sterling Brown QUES
CHI: Tomas Satoransky QUES
This entire game is focused around the debut of new Rockets’ guard Victor Oladipo. John Wall is still out, and with James Harden gone, someone needs to handle the ball. Oladipo will certainly get every opportunity to be the focal point of the Rockets’ offense in this one so be sure to keep an eye on the player props for him assuming there are no reports of limited minutes. In addition, Christian Wood continues to be a force offensively for Houston as he has taken 18 shots or more in four straight games while averaging over 23 points per game on the season.
For Chicago, it has been the Zach LaVine show in 2021. Oddly in his last game, he only took eight shots (made one) for a season-low of 10 points. If this causes his points prop to drop at all, it’s worth taking a look at for potential value given his average of 26.9 per contest in 2021. Lavine still has a usage rate north of 30% on the season, making him the go-to for the Bulls offense.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers (-8.5)
Total: 226.5
Key injuries
GSW: Marquese Chriss OUT
LAL: LeBron James QUES, Anthony Davis QUES
In the first of many matchups between these two teams in 2021, the Lakers are a heavy favorite at 8.5-points at home. This line will certainly move if the Lakers’ two superstars in James and Davis are officially in, right?
We have seen so far this season that when James and Davis are questionable, they tend to play. This is likely built into the line, but sports bettors will react to news and wager on the Lakers’ spread once that news is official.
Legal sportsbooks already have LeBron James and Anthony Davis player props up, so one can assume they both will play in tonight’s contest. Their points props are at 25.5 (James) and 24.5 (Davis), respectively. Both good numbers.
One prop to keep an eye on is Stephen Curry’s three-pointers, which is set at 4.5 with plus money on the over at +132. Curry has made five or more threes in six of his last 10 games this season, which seems like a risky wager based on history…but let’s look deeper. In games that Curry did not reach this number, he shot: 38%, 10%, 16%, and 33% from three, far below his career average. With a 226.5 total tonight if this game stays close, Curry can be expected to have the necessary volume for o4.5 three-pointers.
