Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The FTN Betting Breakdown is a new article series we are featuring this year on FTNBets where we will have a daily breakdown of the day’s NBA betting slate. This breakdown will feature key injury news and updates and how players and teams are affected by said news to give you the opportunity to potentially jump on some lines.
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Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers (-5.5)
Total: 225
Key injuries
CHI: Otto Porter Jr. OUT, Chandler Hutchison OUT, Lauri Markkanen OUT, Wendell Carter Jr. QUEST
IND: T.J. Warren OUT, Doug McDermott QUEST
We start the night off in Indiana with a fairly interesting game environment. The Bulls continue to be among the league leaders in pace, ranking third, with Indiana in the middle of the pack at 16th. The Bulls also rank 24th in defensive rating, which makes this a positive game environment. Taking the over 225 intrigues me but on a large slate, I will likely not push my bankroll on it.
This game provides intrigue in the prop market though, particularly on the Pacers side. The Bulls rank 30th vs. Dimers, 30th vs. Primary Ball-Handlers, 28th vs. Scorers, 27th vs. Points forwards and 21st vs. Rebounders, which immediately puts Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis in the conversation. Since the Oladipo trade, Sabonis’ efficiency has decreased, which has frustrated myself and those tailing me. His rebounding numbers have also been down. What’s important to me are Sabonis’ minutes, which have remained secure, and the matchup. Both Sabonis’ o22.5 points and o11.5 rebounds props are firmly in play. I am prioritizing his rebounding prop. The increase in minutes for TJ McConnell has had a negative effect on Malcolm Brogdon’s production. This is an elite spot for him to produce in though, and he opens at 20.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists. I’ll likely fade Brogdon though. If Doug McDermott is scratched, I will look to pounce on either Sabonis points or Justin Holiday 3PM at 2.5 with plus-money.
For Chicago, we aren’t seeing any crazy edges on the prop market and would prefer to wait on Wendell Carter Jr., as Chicago’s frontcourt players don’t have any props listed yet. Zach LaVine opens at 27.5 points, which I view to be a sharp line.
Houston Rockets (-1) @ Washington Wizards
Total: 230
Key injuries
HOU: Victor Oladipo OUT, Christian Wood OUT
WAS: Ish Smith OUT, Thomas Bryant OUT
The narrative of the night belongs to John Wall, as he returns to Washington to face his former team. Wall has been quoted as wanting to destroy the Wizards when he plays them, which certainly should have our attention. With Russell Westbrook available to play, I am less interested in the Rocket -1 than I would have been, but still expect the Rockets to win this game.
Putting the narrative aside, this is an elite spot for John Wall production, as Victor Oladipo is out and the Wizards rank 26th in defensive rating, first in pace and 23rd vs. Primary Ball-Handlers. The narrative is the cherry on top. The books have taken this into account though, pricing Wall up at 24.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists. As much as I would like to chase this narrative, I have Wall projected for 24 points, 8 assists and 4 rebounds, which is making me stay away. The books also bumped Eric Gordon’s points line to 22.5, which I also view as sharp. I do have interest in his over 3.5 3PM listed at +125 on DraftKings.
There’s also a narrative with Russell Westbrook facing his former team, but it's to a lesser extent this time. I don’t think it’s a coincidence though that Westbrook is playing the second of this back to back, a situation where he has typically rested in. This is a positive game environment and the Rockets rank 28th vs. Dimers and 27th vs. Scorers. Westbrook opens at 21.5 points (20.5 on FanDuel), 8.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists with plus or even-money on the over on his assists. I will be targeting Westbrook’s assists in what should be an ultra high scoring game. If you want to chase a triple-double, Westbrook is +370 on FanDuel. Bradley Beal’s points open at 31.5, I like the over but not enough to bite.
Atlanta Hawks (-2) @ New York Knicks
Total: 218
Key injuries
ATL: Rajon Rondo OUT, Bogdan Bogdanovic OUT, Kris Dunn OUT, De'Andre Hunter OUT
NY: Mitchell Robinson OUT, Frank Ntilikina OUT
I’m not going to have a ton of interest in this matchup outside of targeting both teams’ frontcourt players. The Hawks have been struggling recently, and I have the Knicks projected to win this game, so I do have Knicks +2 against the spread on my radar. At between +100 and +110 on the ML, I would rather just take the points.
The Knicks are without Mitchell Robinson, and Nerlens Noel played 32 minutes last game. The Hawks play at a good pace, ranking 12th, while ranking 23rd in eFG%. This means the Hawks take a lot of shots at an inefficient clip leading to more rebounding opportunities. The Knicks defense also ranks third in the NBA. Noel opens at 6.5 points with heavy juice on the over and 7.5 rebounds, with minimal juice on the over. Clint Capela is Noel’s biggest threat to his rebounding upside, as they rank 10th vs. Rebounders. They also rank 25th vs. Rim Protectors and Noel is +135 to have over 2.5 blocks. Per 36 minutes, Noel averages over 3 blocks a game, so I am looking to chase his blocks again. With Noel likely focused on boxing out Clint Capela, I have interest in Julius Randle over 10.5 rebounds.
For Atlanta, the only place where we can really attack the Knicks is at center, as they rank 27th vs. Rebounders. While I like the over on Capela’s 13.5 rebounds, I have him projected for 14, so there is not enough of an edge for me to chase.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Utah Jazz (-7.5)
Total: 226
Key injuries
PHI: Joel Embiid QUEST, Shake Milton OUT
UTA: Mike Conley OUT
If you think Joel Embiid ends up getting scratched, then it makes sense to target the Jazz at -7.5, as that line will get to around 10 if he’s out. I do think Embiid plays though, so I am staying away.
In general, I am least interested in this game on the slate unless we get Embiid news. With Embiid in, both teams are elite defensively with no significant edges. If Embiid is ruled out, the Sixers defense regresses massively, and I do not expect Donovan Mitchell’s points prop of 27.5 to be affected. With Embiid out, I have Mitchell projected for 29 points. That said, that is not enough of an edge for me to attack it early.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors (-9.5)
Total: 227
Key injuries
CLE: Andre Drummond OUT, Kevin Love OUT, Larry Nance Jr. OUT, Matthew Dellavedova OUT
GS: James Wiseman OUT, Kevon Looney OUT, Draymond Green PROB
We just got word that Andre Drummond will no longer play with the Cavaliers, as they look to trade him before the trade deadline. No Drummond means we will see consistent minutes for Jarrett Allen moving forward. I have no interest in either the total or spread in this game but do think the Warriors have blowout potential.
With Draymond Green playing his minutes at the five, I’m not looking to attack Jarrett Allen’s rebound prop, listed at 13.5. My data says to take the under, but this is one of those where I would prefer to just fade. This Cleveland rotation in general is a bit messy, so I’m not looking at any Cleveland props.
After failing to get us there against Brooklyn, I am going back to the well with Green’s assists. His assist opportunities remain elite, and the Cavs defense is regressing drastically, now ranking 22nd. Since the Warriors frontcourt has been decimated with injuries, we’ve seen Kelly Oubre get over 9 rebounds in every game with his minutes also up. The books are once again too low on Oubre’s rebounds with minimal juice on the over 6.5.
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Clippers (-3)
Total: 216
Key injuries
MIA: Goran Dragic OUT, Meyers Leonard OUT, Chris Silva OUT
LAC: Paul George QUEST, Kawhi Leonard QUEST
We have a whole lot of news to wait on in this matchup, as both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are questionable. I don’t expect George to play while I view Leonard slightly closer to doubtful. Still, we will have to wait and see, as books won’t release any Clippers props until there is news. If looking for an early read and potentially some good closing line value, because I’m wary of both Clippers studs availability, I don’t mind taking Heat +3.
Jimmy Butler fell short of his over 6.5 assists against the Jazz, ending with 5 but saw the right amount assist opportunities to cover. The Clippers don’t provide a good matchup, but it is an improvement over Utah and with Goran Dragic still out, I am looking to attack Butler’s assists pro, as he has gone over 6.5 in seven of his last 10 games. I have Butler projected for 9 assists, so even with the heavy juice, I am taking the over.
Brooklyn Nets (-4.5) @ Sacramento Kings
Total: 243
Key injuries
BK: Kevin Durant OUT, Spencer Dinwiddie OUT, DeAndre Jordan PROB
SAC: Marvin Bagley QUEST
We end the night in Sacramento with an awesome game to target props. Because this game is so juicy on the prop market, I am staying away from the spread and the total.
In games Kevin Durant has not played, we’ve seen Kyrie Irving carry the higher usage than James Harden. The Kings rank 29th vs. Dimers, 24th vs. Primary Ball-Handlers, 30th vs. Scorers and 27th vs. Crafty Finishers. This is an elite matchup for both players to produce in. Because we are seeing Irving as the scorer and Harden as the facilitator, I am targeting Irving’s over 28.5 points and Harden’s over 10.5 assists.
Although they have shown improvements over their last two games, the Nets are still a very bad defensive team and even worse without Kevin Durant. This is a smash spot for De'Aaron Fox, who has seen his usage sneak up over the last two weeks. The Nets rank 29th vs. Scorers and 28th vs. Primary Ball-Handlers. Fox opens up at 25.5 points, 3.5 rebounds (heavy juice on over), 6.5 assists and 36.5 three-way. If not taking his points, I would prefer to take the over on his three-way, individual rebound and assists props. Since my card is fairly heavy, I am currently staying away from Buddy Hield’s 17.5 points prop, but I do project him for 21 points. Hield is an inconsistent player though, so if you do have a heavy card, I prefer staying away.
