Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We have 14 games on an NBA TNT Tuesday, and several teams still have not locked in their playoff position. The 10 teams in each conference have been decided, but there are tight races for both 6 seeds, the No. 1 seed in the West and the No. 2 seed in the East.
Handicapping the NBA in April can be scary, but thanks to the Play-In Tournament the motives of teams are clearer than in years past. If we’re careful, read into each team’s desires, and keep a close eye on the injury report then we can find value in the betting markets. Let’s go through each game, see what might happen, and try to find wagers worth our money.
Also, I have good news! You can watch myself and several other sharp handicappers from the FTN team on a live watch party. Using Playback, we’ll be streaming games, talking through bets, and even making some live wagers starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. Check the FTN Bets Twitter feed for the link and details.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Current Line – Suns -8, 226
My Projection – Suns 114, Clippers 108
Key Injuries – Kawhi Leonard is out. Jusuf Nurkic is questionable.
The Clippers may be out of their slump, but they are still far from what we saw in December and January. They have won six of their last seven, including wins over the Nuggets, Magic and Kings. Most of those wins were without Kawhi Leonard, who appears to have reinjured his right knee and looks to be out until further notice. They still have a very talented roster, but they can’t reach their peak potential without the former NBA Finals MVP. Paul George and James Harden are keeping the ship afloat. Harden is not on the official injury report, but he didn’t participate in shootaround this afternoon and could be in danger of missing the game. If he can play, the Clippers can keep this game close, but they’ll struggle without Harden.
The Suns are fighting to hold onto the 6 seed in the Western Conference to avoid the Play-In Tournament. They are tied with the Pelicans in record but hold the tiebreaker. This is the first of a two-game series between these teams with the two facing each other again Wednesday in Los Angeles. The Suns have struggled defensively all season, but their offense is beginning to peak, which is enough to win them games. Phoenix lost the first two games to Los Angeles, but those were back in January, which feels almost like an entire season ago. I make the Suns just six-point favorites, but that assumes James Harden can play. Without Harden, the Suns would be double-digit favorites. That makes it hard for me to bet the spread, but there’s another angle I like.
I like the under in this matchup quite a bit. Both teams are among the 10 most efficient offenses in the NBA, but totals tend to come down to the pace of the game. The Suns are 11th in pace and the Clippers are 23rd in pace since the All-Star break. Both squads are veteran teams with efficient one-on-one scorers. That means the best way for both to play is to limit fast-break possessions and win the game by grinding out the best shots possible which means a slow pace of play. It should also be slower than normal for both teams since they know they play again Wednesday. Both teams know they have older players and need to limit reps to keep everyone fresh. Maybe both teams shoot the ball so well they get over this total, but without an aberrant field goal percentage this game should be far too slow to get over this total. Give me under any total 225 or higher.
Bet
Los Angeles Clippers/Phoenix Suns Under 226 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets +12.5, 221.5
With four games left, the Mavericks are two games ahead of sixth in the West and two games behind fourth, which means they are more than likely to be the 5 seed. They play Tuesday Charlotte and Wednesday night in Miami. The injury report is clear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they rested players in one or both games. The Hornets have a chance to finish with one of the three worst records in the league, which gives them the best shot at the No. 1 draft pick, but they don’t seem to understand that means they should be tanking. Charlotte has been covering spreads and even won outright against the Orlando Magic on Friday. I lean Hornets, but at some point they should start tanking and the Mavericks are good enough to win this game by margin without all their stars. I make the Mavericks 14-point favorites with a total of 224, which puts me close to market in a game with questionable motives on both sides. I’ll pass.
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors +13, 238
The Raptors are tanking hard. Their first-round draft pick goes to the San Antonio Spurs if it is No. 7 or higher. Toronto has the sixth-worst record in the NBA, which gives them a good chance to keep that pick, but they still need to keep losing to ensure that possibility. The Pacers are holding onto a one-game lead for the 6 seed in the Eastern Conference and can avoid the Play-In Tournament if they keep winning. Indiana is the much better team and the only team in this game trying to win, but they have a big game Wednesday night in Cleveland. The Pacers have struggled on the second night of back-to-backs all year and can beat this Raptors team without their best. I expect Indiana to win, but I can’t trust them to play 48 minutes of good basketball. Toronto’s team total under has gotten a lot of my attention, but I’m worried the Pacers let up in the fourth quarter and the Raptors score enough to get over their total. Nothing for me here.
Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers -15.5, 221.5
Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and Cade Cunningham are questionable. You can’t bet on Philadelphia unless you know Embiid and Maxey are going to play, and you can’t bet on Detroit unless you know Cunningham is playing. So, since we really don’t know who’s playing at this moment, we can’t bet this game. I might play a Pistons team total under if Cade is out and the 76ers’ stars can play, but I must wait. Keep an eye on the #nba-plays channel of the FTN Bets Discord for that bet if/when I make it later.
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks +3.5, 219.5
The Heat are finally healthy again, but that has yet to translate to wins. Miami lost close games to the 76ers and Pacers last week, which have put them in danger of having to qualify for the postseason through the Play-In Tournament. The Hawks are finding their form a bit and are just a game behind the Bulls for the 9 seed, which gives them homecourt advantage in the that first Play-In game. Both teams need a win here and a motivated Miami team is as scary as anyone, but the Heat have to go home to play the Mavericks Wednesday while the Hawks host the Hornets. That makes this a tough schedule for the Heat and creates the small chance that they overlook the Hawks. I make Miami five-point favorites with a total of 218, which puts me close to market anyway, but if I saw an edge in my projections, I’d likely not bet it. I think anything can happen in this matchup.
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks +2.5, 227.5
This should be a great game to watch, but I have no idea what to expect from either team. The Celtics don’t appear to be resting anyone except possibly Kristaps Porzingis, and this should be a good game to try hard in preparation for the postseason, but Boston is the No. 1 seed in the NBA even if they lose every game for the rest of the season. The Bucks have been hugely disappointing lately. Milwaukee has lost four games in a row and six of their last seven, and three of those losses came as favorites of 12 or more. Is this a bounceback spot for the Bucks? Shouldn’t their last few games have been bounceback spots? This game makes my head hurt and my projections are close to the current odds, so I’ll watch to learn about each team, but I can’t, in good conscience, suggest anyone bet anything in this game.
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder -5, 227
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back, and the Thunder are in a tight race for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. OKC is just a game behind the Nuggets and Timberwolves in the standings but are behind in the tiebreakers. That means the Thunder have to win the rest of their games most likely and even that might not be enough. Will they push hard to keep themselves in the race or realize they are likely to be the 3 seed and start to rest guys for the postseason? Jalen Williams is questionable, and I think his final status will be telling because OKC needs his defense to beat the Kings. The Kings haven’t played their best basketball lately but have been good on the road and have the speed to run with OKC. I make the Thunder seven-point favorites with a total of 225. That’s close to the market and I’m not sure we should expect the best effort from the Thunder. My gut likes Sacramento, but they’re in a bad schedule spot at the end of a four-game road trip. I’m too conflicted to wager on anything in this matchup.
Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets +3, 215.5
The Rockets are officially out of the postseason, which is often a time team’s start to play worse, but coach Ime Udoka has his young team playing hard still. The Rockets don’t have their own draft pick, so they have no reason to tank, and Udoka has always been about creating a winning culture. I’m sure the Rockets would love to ruin the Magic’s chances of getting up the second seed in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is just one game behind the Bucks, whom the Magic play against Wednesday. The Magic are the better team at just about every position, but this is a very precarious schedule spot for them. I make Orlando five-point favorites with a total of 214, which is a slight edge on the Magic, but I can’t trust them to play their best Tuesday knowing what they have to do Wednesday. No bets for me here.
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies +4, 215
We’ve got a battle of bad teams, but this one could be a fun watch thanks to Victor Wembanyama and the endless effort of what remains of Memphis’ roster. The Spurs are tied for the third-worst record in the NBA but hold the tiebreaker, giving them the best odds possible for the No. 1 draft pick. San Antonio should be trying to lose games, but Wembanyama almost entirely on his own has kept games close and even won a few over the past few weeks. The Spurs could, and should, win this game if they give their best effort, but I can’t count on that, and we certainly shouldn’t bet on that. At the same time, four is not enough points to back the Grizzlies at home. I’ll pass on this game.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls +4.5, 212.5
The Knicks are healthy, sans Julius Randle, who is out for the year, and in position to host a playoff series in New York. They hold just half a game lead over the Cavaliers for the 4 seed in Eastern Conference and need to win with the Celtics on deck for Thursday. They beat the Bucks connivingly Sunday and are the better team on the court tonight but lost to these Bulls last Friday. Chicago has generally been good against good teams and bad against bad teams which is very confusing and makes it hard to handicap their games. How do you compare losses to the Wizards and Nets with wins over the Timberwolves, Pacers and these Knicks? I make New York favorites by six points with a total of 210. Those are small edges that I’m not going to play. I think this is a fairly even matchup for the most part. The Knicks should win by a few baskets, but no one is better at sneaking inside the spread late in games than the Bulls.
Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves -16.5, 223.5
The Timberwolves should crush the Wizards, but they might be distracted by their game Wednesday. Minnesota goes to Denver to play the Nuggets in a game that can win the Timberwolves the top seed in the Western Conference. So, will Minnesota keep their focus on Tuesday even though they don’t need their best basketball to win, or will they pull their best players late to keep everyone fresh? I would like to fade Minnesota in this game, but unfortunately we have to bet on the Wizards to do that. Tyus Jones, Kyle Kuzma and several other players are out for Washington which leaves little in the way of NBA level talent. The Wizards have no reason to win, nor do they have the players to give themselves a chance to win even if they wanted. I can’t bet the dog and I don’t trust the favorite, so I won’t be wagering on this game.
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz +15, 225
So, do you want to lay 15 points with a Nuggets team that plays the Timberwolves at home Wednesday, or do you want to take just 15 points with a Utah Jazz team that is missing Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins and Walker Kessler? I’m not interested in either. The Nuggets/Timberwolves game Wednesday could effectively decide who gets the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and homecourt advantage until the NBA Finals. Denver has generally played these types of games at less than full effort being happy to just win and not focused on winning by margin. The Jazz are a very bad team without their four best players, but they still try to push and jack up enough three pointers to cover such a large spread. I can’t trust the Nuggets and I will not be backing this version of the Jazz, so I’m not betting this game.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers -2.5, 236
This is likely a preview of the first Play-In Tournament game for the Western Conference, as both teams are settling in as the 10 and 9 seeds, respectively. The Warriors are just a game and a half behind the Lakers, and a win gives them a real chance of moving up to 9 and getting homecourt in that Play-In game. At the same time, the Lakers are just half a game out of 8 and 1.5 games out of 6 where they could avoid the Play-In altogether. Both teams should be playing their best tonight which makes for a fun game, but not one I see an edge in betting. With everyone playing, I make the Lakers three-point favorites with a total of 235, which is basically what the odds are now. This is another important game to watch, but not one that I see value in betting.
New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers +13, 213
Which Pelicans team will play here? The one that is 1-4 in their last five games or the New Orleans we saw before that, which was a dark horse candidate to win multiple playoff series? If we get the good Pelicans, they can win this game by 20 points let alone the 14 points they need to cover. If we get the bad Pelicans, this is a scary spot for them against a young team with a roster full of players trying to show the league they can play NBA-level basketball. The Trail Blazers are bad, but they are playing hard regardless of their situation and have covered spreads at home. I just don’t know which version of New Orleans we’re going to get, so I’m not sure how to handicap this game and will not be betting on it.
