Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We’re almost at the end of the NBA season, but there are still plenty of games left. There are 12 matchups tonight, 13 on Sunday and 14 games on Tuesday with a few more in between those. The league is jamming in as much basketball as possible in the last few days to give the playoff teams some rest at the conclusion of their 82-game marathon. Some teams are still playing as hard as they can to win, while others are just trying to get to their offseason vacations.
Questions about motivation are at an all-time high, and so are injuries after so much built up fatigue from months of NBA basketball. We must be careful, but there is still value to be had. Let’s go through each game, try to figure out who cares and hopefully find some value in the betting markets. Of course, since it’s Friday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions about something I missed or bets of your own, leave them in the comments section of that video and I’ll reply there. Now, on to the hoops!
Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics
Current Line – Celtics -10, 226
My Projection – Celtics 120, Kings 107
Key Injuries – Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Malik Monk, and Kevin Huerter are out.
Much to the delight of those who read yesterday’s edition of Hoops with Noops, the Sacramento Kings lost in New York to the Knicks. De’Aaron Fox played 39 minutes and Domantas Sabonis played 36 minutes. That’s a lot of minutes for Sacramento’s stars, especially for a west team in the Eastern Time Zone. Combine this awful schedule spot with injuries to two key support players, and it looks like another good night to fade the Kings. Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter are out, and both play key roles in Sacramento’s success. Huerter starts at shooting guard, but often takes the ball and runs the offense which allows Fox to play off the ball. Fox’s speed and ability to cut makes him dangerous in that role and gives the Kings another dimension to their offense. Speaking of offense, Monk was the entire bench offense. Sacramento’s backups are mostly defensive players who struggle to score or create chances for others. They work well with Monk, who loves to shoot the ball as much as possible. But without him, the second unit has struggled. The market has lowered the rating for the Kings, but not low enough in my opinion.
No Jaylen Brown, no Derrick White, no problem for the Boston Celtics who are built to handle these losses. Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday can easily cover up for their missing counterparts. Of course, Boston is best with everyone, but the Celtics are still one of the best teams in the NBA as long as they have one of their guards, one of their wings and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics have already locked up the best record in the NBA, but they have not stopped playing good basketball. Coach Joe Mazzula has said in press conferences that he has no plans to slow his stars down and wants to use these games to practice schemes for the playoffs. Boston has won 11 of its last 14 games by 10+ points with an average margin of +15.2 points per game. I make the Celtics big favorites and expect them to win, but I’m going to be on them early instead of the full game spread. As mentioned, Mazzulla has been experimenting, and most of that seems to be happening in the second half of games. Rather than sweat the last 24 minutes, give me the Celtics -5.5 points in the first half. They have been the best first-half team all season, and I don’t expect that to change.
Bets
Boston Celtics First Half -5.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers -6.5, 235.5 – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out and Jalen Williams is doubtful. Those are the two best players on the roster for the Thunder, and although Oklahoma City still has a lot of talent left in the locker room, it deserves to be underdogs. Myles Turner is questionable for the Pacers, but even without him I make Indiana favorites in this game. The Pacers were struggling with injuries and a change in their identity, but they have the seventh-best net rating in the NBA since the All-Star break, which is a few spots higher than the Thunder. If healthy, I make Indiana 7.5-point favorites with a total of 235, and without Turner, I make them 4.5-point favorites with a total of 233, which puts me close to the current odds regardless. I don’t see any value for us to attack here.
Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards -2.5, 224 – There is even less NBA level talent on these teams than normal. Malcolm Brogdon, Toumani Camara, Anfernee Simons, Marvin Bagley, Bilal Coulibaly, Tyus Jones and Kyle Kuzma are out. Jerami Grant is doubtful and Deni Avdija is questionable. There are very few good players left on either team, and I’m not saying they should just cancel this game, but people might be happier if the broadcast for this game showed a different one instead. It’s a terrible game to watch and a hard game to handicap since there is little data on the players who will be on the floor and even less telling us how they might fit together. Let’s just try to forget this game is happening.
Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets +12, 206 – A win tonight moves the Orlando Magic into a tie for the third seed in the Eastern Conference. That would be the highest finish for the Magic since the 2009-10 season. Orlando should be able to crush a bad team like Charlotte, and the market agrees. I make the Magic 13-point favorites with a total of 205. The Hornets are overmatched at every position and should lose this game by a lot, but my projections are close to the current odds, and I don’t see any matchup angles that might change that. I’m going to pass on this game.
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks -15, 229 – Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are listed as questionable on the injury report for a Bucks team that lost their last two games to the Washington Wizards and Memphis Grizzlies. Milwaukee was favored to win both of those by 12+ points. If you believe in bounce-back spots, you probably are staring hard at this game. Even if this is a great performance in response to recent losses, you can’t trust the Bucks unless you know Giannis and Dame have a chance to play. Milwaukee needs both to be its best, but with either player, the team has plenty in the tank to beat the Raptors. Toronto is limping through the end of the season with Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and not much else. We can’t bet on the Bucks until we know who is playing and really shouldn’t bet on the Raptors regardless. That means we won’t be wagering on this contest.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls -1.5, 212 – These teams play each other three times over the next six games. I have the Knicks favored by two points, but it’s a bad schedule spot for New York. They played four of their five starters 38+ minutes in a win over the Sacramento Kings. Tom Thibodeau has always pushed his best players hard even if they have a game the following night, and that hurts their performance. The Knicks are 4-7 against the spread this season on the second night of a back-to-back. The Bulls have had three days off and should be ready to win this game, but they have been wildly inconsistent. In four of their last five games, Chicago has beaten two playoff teams and lost to two of the worst teams in the league. I guess since the Knicks are a playoff team, that probably means the Bulls will win? I’m happy to skip this game.
Miami Heat at Houston Rockets +2.5, 215 – The Rockets’ loss to the Golden State Warriors last night all but knocked them out of the Play-In Tournament. Houston is four games behind Golden State and the Warriors have the tiebreaker. That means the Rockets would have to win every game left on their schedule and have the Warriors lose five of their six games left. Houston could also win five out of the six and have Golden State lose all six of its games. That’s not going to happen, so how will a young team cope with their season effectively being over?
Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies -1.5, 212 – Do you know how you can tell it’s April in the NBA? There are two games I think should just be canceled. Similar to Trail Blazers/Wizards, this game will feature two bad teams with a laundry list of injured players. Cade Cunningham, Simone Fontecchio, Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson, Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson, Santi Aldama and Marcus Smart are out. This game is impossible to handicap given the lineups, so let’s cancel this game too and move onto more important things.
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans -11, 219.5 – Despite the spread being so large, this should be a very fun game. The Spurs have shut down most of their talented players, but thankfully Victor Wembanyama gets to keep doing things we’ve never seen on an NBA court. The No. 1 draft pick has been incredible and gotten San Antonio to win three of its last five games and cover the spread in all five. The Pelicans are having a different experience, as they have lost four of their last five games and only covered one of those five. My projections are within a point of the current odds. Normally I’d be looking to back the Pelicans early, but I’d also normally be looking to back the Spurs early. Both teams have covered in the first quarter and first half at a high rate. Enjoy the watch, but I can’t advise you to enjoy betting anything in this game.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -5, 226 – These teams played a nailbiter on Tuesday in Golden State with the Warriors winning 104-100. Things have changed quite a bit since then. We’re in Dallas tonight, and Golden State has all but locked up the 10th seed and final Play-In Tournament spot in the Western Conference. The Warriors are 1.5 games behind ninth and two games behind eighth, which means they might be able to move further up the standings, but this is also a veteran team that might want to rest some of their players. The Mavericks are currently the 5 seed and a game ahead of the Phoenix Suns, which I think gives Dallas more motivation to play its best. It could be a fun game, but it also might be a Mavericks blowout win because the Warriors relax a bit after beating the Houston Rockets last night. I make Dallas seven-point favorites, which is a small edge, but not a big enough one for me to bet. I’m going to keep a close eye on this game to see if the Warriors are playing hard. If they are not, I might bet the Mavericks live. Keep an eye on the FTNBets Discord, because that’s where I will share any live bets I make if/when I do make them.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns -4, 216.5 – The second-best defense since the All-Star break will face off against the 7th-best offense since the break. Both teams are healthy and both are fighting hard for the best record possible. The Timberwolves have a half-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, while the Suns are holding onto the sixth seed thanks to a tiebreaker over the New Orleans Pelicans. This will probably be the best game of the night, and it’s certainly one you should watch closely. We have a chance to learn how the Suns offense can adjust to an elite defense and how the Timberwolves can adjust to an elite offense. Unfortunately, like most games that are great, I don’t see any value in betting it. The market has all the information it needs after almost 75 games played to make a sharp line, and they did just that. No bets for me here.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers -12.5, 223 – So, you can lay almost 14 points with the Clippers, a veteran team on the second night of a back-to-back without Kawhi Leonard. Your other option is to take less than 14 points with the Utah Jazz, who are on the road without Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins and Walker Kessler. I hate both of those options and will offer a third choice. You can choose to not bet on this game, and that’s the choice I am going to make.
