Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Kyle Anderson Over 4.5 Assists
(+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Anderson has continued to step up for this team, especially with Karl-Anthony Towns out and D’Angelo Russell traded away. Anderson has a usage rate above 21% over his last three games, his assists numbers have tapered down a bit, but the model still likes the over here in this spot and at plus-money.
Jeremy Sochan Over 26.5 Points+ Rebounds + Assists
(+104, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Another plus-money bet on this beautiful Saturday, Jeremy Sochan is coming off of a monster game and now gets a great matchup against Houston, where my model projects him for 18.9 points, 4.5 assists and 6.88 rebounds.
Jalen Green Over 2.5 Threes Made
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We know Jalen Green is not afraid to shoot, and in this strong matchup against the Spurs my model has him for over 3 threes and over 24 points. There is a chance we see slightly limited minutes as he has been banged up, but he did return to 30 minutes last game so 30-32 should be an accurate range of minutes to expect.
