Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Cameron Johnson Over 15.5 Points
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cameron Johnson has gotten off to a nice start with his new team, and he has now scored at least 18 points in four of his last five games, including 27-plus in two of his last three. This isn’t a great matchup for Johnson, but my model still projects Johnson for over 20 points.
Anthony Davis Over 12.5 Rebounds
(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Anthony Davis had a monster game on the glass last time out, and with LeBron James out, AD will continue to carry the load on both sides of the floor. My model projects him for 14.4 rebounds in a great matchup against the Timberwolves, who rank 24th in rebounds allowed and 27th in offensive rebounds.
Damian Lillard Over 36.5 Points
(-102, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Well, this is a monster line for Damian Lillard, but he has showed he is more than deserving of it. Lillard is averaging 43.3 PPG over his last five games and 38.4 PPG over hist last 10. So far this season, with no Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons on the floor, Lillard has a 40% usage rate. This is also an incredible matchup against the Hawks who are 22nd in points allowed and 21st in FG% allowed.
