NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! After just two games Thursday night, the NBA is back with a vengeance Friday. There are 12 games, several with big implications for the postseason. The Mavericks, Suns and Kings all play and are in a tight race to get the 6 seed and final guaranteed playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Nuggets hold just a half game lead over the Thunder and Timberwolves for the top spot in the West and homecourt advantage for the first three rounds.
There’s clear motivations to win for almost every team playing Friday, which is usually a good recipe for a fun night of hoops, but that’s not why you’re here. There may be great games, but are there great bets to be made? Let’s go through each matchup, break down what might happen, and find some bets worth our money.
Of course, since it’s Friday you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions about something I missed or bets of your own, leave them in the comments section of that video and I’ll reply there. Now, on to the hoops!
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Hornets
Current Line – Warriors -13, 220
My Projection – Warriors 114, Hornets 102
Key Injuries – LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams are out. Jonathan Kuminga is questionable.
The Warriors are suddenly in a battle with the Rockets for the 10 seed in the Western Conference, the last spot in the Play-In Tournament. That’s the only chance either team has of making the postseason. They are playing their fourth game of a five-game east coast road trip. Normally, this would be a spot where a veteran team would rest some of its best players to ensure they are healthy and fresh for the playoffs. That is not the case here, and I expect Steve Kerr to play his full lineup their normal minutes to ensure they get the win. It’s been rare to see the Warriors as such big favorites, but it makes sense given the situation and how terrible the Hornets are. Charlotte is still winning a game or two every few weeks, but that have one of the worst rosters in the league and are deservingly huge underdogs at home. I think the market is hanging a good spread.
I do, however, think this total is too high. The Hornets managed to score 118 points in their last game, but that was the first time they scored more than 100 points since March 5. Their starting lineup has some talent with Tre Mann, Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller. Unfortunately, the rest of the team is full of players who would struggle to get even backup minutes on other teams. The Warriors still have plenty of skilled offensive players, but their pace has slowed down and so has their total points scored. Golden State averaged 119.3 points per game before the All-Star break but are scoring just 113.3 points per game since then. Perhaps things get out of hand in a blowout, and this game turns into a track meet, but I expect the Warriors to set a slow pace to avoid putting too much work on their players. If that’s the case, this game will go well under the current total of 220.
Bet
Golden State Warriors/Charlotte Hornets Under 220 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs
Current Line – Knicks -9, 213.5
My Projection – Knicks 110, Spurs 105
Key Injuries – OG Anunoby and Julius Randle are out. Alec Burks and Keldon Johnson are questionable.
The Knicks have snuck up the Eastern Conference standings and are now just 1.5 games behind the Bucks for the 2 seed. Whichever team finishes second will avoid playing the Celtics until the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks are poised to make some noise in the playoffs, and I expect them to win at least one series. Part of that belief is based on OG Anunoby and Julius Randle being healthy and available to play. With those two, New York is a deep team full of long armed defenders that can also score and be efficient on offense. Without those two, the Knicks are a very good team, but short on depth and short on offensive talent. Guys like Josh Hart and Miles McBride have been forced into starting roles and are playing 40-plus minutes some nights. That’s OK if they want to win tonight, but I think it’s a problem if they expect to win this game by double digits.
The Spurs have the third-worst record in the league with a one-game “lead” over fourth worst. The three worst teams each have a 14% chance of getting the No. 1 pick in the draft. Those are the best odds possible, with the fourth-worst team having a 12.5% chance and fifth worst having a 10.5% chance. That’s the most important thing for the Spurs right now, but it is also important to use these games to instill some good habits in their young players. San Antonio has won their last two games and are 10-5 against the spread in their last 15 games. As long as Victor Wembanyama is playing, the Spurs can use lineups that have a good net rating. That allows them to keep games close and even catch up late in the contest. I make the Knicks just five-point favorites and we get a chance to take nine points with the Spurs. That’s a bet.
Bet
San Antonio Spurs +9 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
Current Line – Rockets -8, 229.5
My Projection – Rockets 122, Jazz 111
Key Injuries – Alperen Sengun, Cam Whitmore and Jordan Clarkson are out. Lauri Markkanen is questionable.
For the second season in a row, the Jazz started the year as a deep, interesting team that was threatening to make the playoffs. Also for the second season in a row, they traded away a few talented players at the trade deadline and tanked hard to finish the season. The Jazz were 26-26 Feb. 6 and have gone 3-18 since then. Utah had two, five-man lineups with a good balance of scoring, shooting and defensive ability which allowed them keep games close and win the minutes against their opponent’s bench players. After a few moves, they are left without only about eight NBA level players and even less thanks to injury. Jordan Clarkson is out and he’s been an important player for Utah coming off the bench to score points. Lauri Markkanen is questionable and the team’s very best player. Without him, this is a very bad team.
The Rockets are the hottest team in the NBA. Houston has won 10 games in a row and dragged themselves back into range of the Play-In Tournament. The Rockets are just a game behind the Warriors for the 10 seed and could surpass the former champions. Houston deserves to be big favorites. and I make them even bigger favorites than they current odds, but I think there’s a better angle. If Markkanen can play, the Jazz might have just enough shooting to keep this game close with a barrage of three pointers. In either case, I expect the Rockets to score a lot of points tonight. Without Sengun, they struggle in the half-court so coach Ime Udoka has them playing fast, pushing the ball at every opportunity. Utah likes to run at home, and they don’t have the defenders needed to stop Houston. I expect the Rockets to score more than 120 points comfortably and will happily bet on it.
Bet
Houston Rockets Team Total Over 119.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana Pacers -4, 244.5
As is tradition, we are stuck waiting to see if LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to play. Both are questionable, and each has missed one of their last two games. Both did play in a 150-145 loss to these Pacers in Los Angeles Sunday. The Lakers closed as four-point favorites with a total of 240 in that game. The eight-point adjustment in the spread tells me the market thinks one of LeBron or AD will be out tonight. Either way, we can’t really place a wager until we know their official status. I don’t expect to have any bets on this game, but if I do I’ll be sure to add them in the Discord.
Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic +2, 212.5
The market and I agree on these odds. I make the Magic -2 with a total of 213. The Clippers have struggled for the last few weeks, but they are still one of the most talented teams in the NBA with one of the very best coaches. Los Angeles can beat anyone on any night, but it’s getting harder to tell when that might happen. This is Orlando’s third consecutive game at home against a Western Conference playoff contender and they lost the first two. This will be their sixth game in a row at home, which usually means improved efficiency, but that’s not enough of a boost to trust the home team. I’ll pass on this game.
Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards -3.5, 227.5
As I’ve said before in this piece, some games should just be canceled, and this is as good of a candidate for that as we’ve seen all year. The Pistons and Wizards have the two worst records in the league. They’ve combined to win 26 games, fewer than 23 teams have on their own. I probably shouldn’t have even included this in my writeup, but here we are. Let’s move on and try to forget about this game.
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5, 212
Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable, and whether he can play will have a big impact. With Mitchell on the floor, I make the Cavaliers 10-point favorites with a total of 216. Without Mitchell, I make the Cavaliers 5-point favorites with a total of 209. The market is between those numbers right now and it looks to me like they are leaning towards Mitchell playing, but we really don’t know. Once his status is official, the odds will change and once the lines settle, I’ll reevaluate. If I do make any bets in this game, I’ll be sure to add them in the #nba-plays of the Discord.
Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets +3, 215
This is a hard game to handicap. The Nets have no reason to win or lose any game for the rest of the season, and that has shown in their recent results. The Bulls are trying to round into form for the Play-In Tournament and the right to get smashed by the Boston Celtics in round one. It’s hard to tell if that’s working because they lost outright to the Washington Wizards on Monday and then beat the Indiana Pacers by 26 points Wednesday. I don’t know whether the Nets care, and I don’t know whether or not the Bulls are good. That means I should not and will not be betting on this game.
Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat -13.5, 210
There’s a big schedule advantage for the Heat, who played at home Tuesday and had off Wednesday and Thursday. Portland is playing their third game of a seven-game road trip. Miami might sleepwalk through this game knowing they can win easily without needing to push their best players hard which would make it hard for them to cover such a big spread. The Trail Blazers are playing mostly rookies and young players who are pushing hard for all 48 minutes which has allowed them to cover some big spreads late. I make Miami 12-point favorites with a total of 209, which puts me close to market. That combined with the questionable motivation for the Heat and the questionable fatigue for the Blazers means I don’t see any value in betting this game.
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5, 228
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is doubtful. Without him, the Thunder are still a very good basketball team, but they don’t have a star and the Suns have at least two star players in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. It’s hard to make a good number for OKC without SGA, but I generally agree with the market that the Suns should be a short favorite with a total around 228. Phoenix is playing their third game of a five-game road trip which is never easy, but they should be able to win this game. It will be an interesting watch, but not a good game to bet. No wagers for me on this game.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets -7, 213
Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Jamal Murray are listed as questionable. Those are three of the four most important players in this matchup. The Nuggets have been resting Murray occasionally and even against good teams. Edwards and Gobert have played the last few games despite having the same designation. The current spread leads me to believe the market expects them to play, but as regular readers know, I don’t like betting on injury statuses. It’s hard enough to wager on the NBA without having to parlay your bets with the odds someone plays or not. I can’t be on this game right now. Once things are clear, I’ll likely end up on the Nuggets in the first quarter or early in the game in some fashion. Make sure you’re in the Discord to get those bets if/when I do place them.
Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings -1, 231
This is the fourth and final matchup between these two teams, and the stakes have never been higher. Dallas is currently the 6 seed in the Western Conference, just one game ahead of Sacramento. The Kings lost to the Mavericks Tuesday but won the two games before that. If Sacramento can win Friday, they will lock up the head-to-head tiebreaker against Dallas and move into the 6 seed themselves. The Mavericks can tie the series and extend their lead with a win themselves. Getting to the 6 spot is hugely important because it guarantees that team a place in the playoffs without having to win the Play-In Tournament. The Kings closed as one-point favorites with a total of 233.5 Tuesday. We see the same spread and a slightly lower total here. The odds look good to me Tuesday, and they look good to me again here. Luka Doncic is questionable, and his absence would changes things drastically, but I expect the Mavericks to push him to play in such an important game. I’ll pass on betting this game, but I will stay up late and watch it.
