Jayden Daniels vs Caleb Williams
Jay Felicio
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! March Madness may be a college basketball event, but the NBA is not safe from the madness of March. It seems that every night conference seeding and playoff hopes change for every team.
The 6 seed and final guaranteed playoff spot is up for grabs in both conferences as well as spots in the top four, which give teams homecourt advantage. Unfortunately, there has also been injury scares. Thursday night, Brandon Ingram hurt his knee, and it looked very serious. Reports have him missing at least a few weeks and it could be even longer once more tests are run. Giannis Antetokounmpo is struggling with a nagging hamstring injury. If the Bucks push him to play they might not have their best player healthy in the postseason, but if they might lost the two seed in the Eastern Conference without Giannis available to finish the season.
Each game is more important than the last, and teams are faced with tough decisions. Let’s look at Friday’s slate, see how that impacts play, and try to find some value in the betting markets. Of course, since it’s Friday you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions or suggestions, please leave in the comment section of that video and I’ll get back to you ASAP.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
Current Line – Celtics -14, 223
My Projection – Celtics 116, Pistons 106
Key Injuries – Jrue Holiday, Isaiah Stewart and Ausar Thompson are out. Jalen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis are questionable.
The Celtics have easily been the most dominant team in the NBA this season. They are just shy of an 80% win rate, and their average point differential is +11.5. That’s the best differential since the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, who had Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. The Celtics have several great players and depth behind them. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are two of the best defensive and overall guards in the league. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are two of the best wings in the NBA. Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford ensure that Boston has a smart, good defending center on the floor who can shoot well from beyond the arc on offense. The Celtics have effectively locked up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and have a big lead on the top overall seed in the NBA which means the road to the championship goes through Boston. They are starting to take advantage of that great performance by resting some of their best players to ensure they are healthy for the postseason. As you can see above, just about every important player for them is out or questionable.
The Pistons have had almost the exact opposite season as the Celtics. Detroit has 57 losses and 12 wins versus Boston’s 55 wins and 14 losses. There was hope that the Pistons could compete for a spot in the Play-In Tournament at the start of the season — Cade Cunningham and several other good young players finally had a good coach in Monty Williams and the chance to have a winning season. Unfortunately, Cunningham got hurt early in the season and Detroit set the record for most consecutive losses. That’s the bad news, but the good news is that they have already lost enough games to give them a good chance at the top pick in next year’s draft and can again focus on trying to win to develop their young talent. That hasn’t translated into wins, but the Pistons have been playing hard and keeping games close. If everyone listed questionable for the Celtics can play, I only make this game a 10-point spread and the market is offering us 14 points. Things only look better if some of Boston’s stars rest. Let’s hold our noses and eat some stinky cheese. Give me the Pistons +14.
Bet
Detroit Pistons +14 (-110, BetMGM)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Line – Timberwolves -7.5, 207
My Projection – Timberwolves 106, Cavaliers 103
Key Injuries – Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Karl-Anthony Towns. Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid are questionable.
The Timberwolves are having their best season in years and are just 1.5 games from the 1 seed in the Western Conference. Anthony Edwards is somehow finding ways to jump higher than he ever has each night. Naz Reid has filled in nicely for Karl-Anthony Towns, while Rudy Gobert continues to lead the best defense in the league by over 2 points per 100 possessions. Unfortunately, all of those players are at risk of missing this game. We know KAT is out, and other three players are listed as questionable. The Timberwolves are still favored by a few baskets, which tells me the market expects at least Edwards and one of Gobert or Reid to play. If that’s the case, Minnesota does deserve to be favored, but not by as many points as the books think. If Edwards or Gobert are out, then this spread should be close to zero. If everyone is out, the Cavaliers should be favored. It looks to me like the market is optimistic about Minnesota’s injury situation and even if correct, is either overvaluing the Timberwolves or undervaluing the Cavaliers.
Cleveland has its own injury troubles, but their picture is much clearer. Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley are out, which is a blow to the team, but the Cavaliers are prepared to handle these losses. Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen are healthy and more than capable of leading this team like they have for weeks. Cleveland isn’t winning games at the clip it did earlier in the season, but they are still winning and keep their losses close. It’s a well-coached team with a deep roster that can adjust to matchup against any opponent. I have them as underdogs in this game if the Timberwolves have Edwards and Gobert available, but not by nearly as many points as the books do. If both stars for Minnesota can play I like Cleveland at this price. If either Edwards or Gobert are out, I really like the Cavaliers at this price. We’re not this lucky, but if somehow both are out then I LOVE this bet. Give me the points with Cleveland.
Bet
Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors +16.5, 230
The Thunder start a three-game road trip in Toronto Friday. Oklahoma City is tied for the top spot in the Western Conference, which would give them homecourt advantage in the postseason until the Finals. That would be huge for a young team entering the postseason for the first time with a serious chance to win several series. They have crushed bad teams all season and the Raptors are a bad team. Toronto is missing Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley. There is also a chance Gary Trent Jr. will miss this game. That doesn’t leave many players let alone talented players for the Raptors. I make the Thunder 18-point favorites which is the biggest spread my model has spit out all season. My projections make the total 228, which is close to the market. I gave out a Toronto Raptors team total under at 107.5 in the FTN Bets Discord Friday morning, but unfortunately that number has moved too far. Currently, their team total is either 105.5 or 106.5 with the under heavily juiced which isn’t value. No bets for at this point in this game.
New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat -4, 209.5
The Pelicans lost a tough game in Orlando Thursday night, and the Heat are playing their first game in Miami after a four-game road trip. This is not the best schedule spot for either team. Unfortunately for New Orleans, Brandon Ingram hurt his knee at the end of the game against the Magic and he will be out for a few weeks. The Pelicans have a deep roster and can find an adequate replacement for Ingram in the short term, but it lowers the team’s ceiling in a meaningful way. Jimmy Butler is finally back on the court for the Heat after dealing with a foot bruise, but Bam Adebayo is listed as questionable with a lower back injury. If Miami’s center can play, I like them to cover this spread, but I doubt it will stay at four. If Bam can’t play, it could be a nightmare matchup for the Heat who will be without a true center to defend against one of the best rim attacking teams in the league. I don’t think I’ll have a wager on this game, but I’m going to keep a close eye on the injury report and see how the market reacts to Bam’s final announcement. If I do make a bet on this game, I’ll be sure to put it in the #nba-plays channel of the Discord.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs -6, 216
It’s a battle of bad teams at the bottom of the Western Conference. Jaren Jackson is up, but just about every other NBA quality player for Memphis is on their injury report listed as out, doubtful or questionable. San Antonio is still laser focused on having one of the three worst records in the NBA, but they have a two-game lead on the spot and can afford to win a game or two. As strange as it feels to type this, the Spurs deserve to be favorites of a few baskets in this game. They are the better team, are at home, and matchup very well against what is left of the Grizzlies roster. This is a hard game to handicap given the players who will be on the floor for Memphis and San Antonino’s questionable motivation, but my projections are close to the current odds. I make the Spurs -5 with a total of 215, which means I don’t see a strong enough edge to bet this game. No bets for me here.
Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors -5, 240
These are two teams that I don’t feel confident in my ability to handicap. As I’ve written before, the Pacers are a much different team than they were to start the season and there are doubts about whether or not Tyrese Haliburton is 100% healthy. The Warriors are also a much different team than they were to start the season, but much better. Draymond Green is playing good basketball without any extracurricular violence. Stephen Curry can still take over any game. Steve Kerr has done a good job of balancing lineups and finding a rhythm for this team. My model is close to the market with the Golden State as six-point favorites and a total of 238. There’s no real edges in those numbers and I have a good grasp on how the matchup will play out, so I’m not betting this game.
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers +13.5, 217
These teams faced off in Portland Wednesday night. The Clippers won by 13 points, which was bad news for anyone who backed the Blazers with only 12. The injury report looks similar to Wednesday night, which means we’ll have the same players on the same court. The market moved the spread 1.5 points and the total by just a point which are just small moves on the edges and not very meaningful. The Clippers are pushing hard to finish the season, so they can hold onto the 4 seed and homecourt advantage in round one of the playoffs. Los Angeles can win this game by 20 points, but we’ve seen them take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter to rest their best players. Portland outscored them 33-22 in the final frame Wednesday, which was almost good enough to snag the cover. That makes it hard to trust the favorite, but also hard to back such an undermanned underdog. I’m going to pass on this game.
Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers -7, 224.5
This is a matchup of two teams stumbling to the finish line of the season. The 76ers have been an abject mess without Joel Embiid and several other key contributors. Nick Nurse is trying his best to find lineups that work around Tyrese Maxey, but it has been a struggle at best. The Lakers look great some nights and not so great other nights. In the last few weeks, they have beaten the Oklahoma City Thunder, Milwaukee Bucks, and Minnesota Timberwolves, but lost to the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings, twice. In fact, the Kings swept the Lakers, winning all four of their games this season. That’s the first time Los Angeles failed to beat Sacramento even once in a season since 2015-16. The Lakers deserve to be favored by this margin. I make it Los Angeles -8 with a total of 226. That said, guards like Maxey have given the Lakers trouble all season and the 76ers could definitely surprise them if LA isn’t focused. I can’t trust either team, which means I can’t bet on either team.
