Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The good news is that the NBA has 10 games on the schedule for Wednesday evening. The bad news is that some of them are tough to figure out. You have two monster spreads, with the Grizzlies favored by 12.5 over the Rockets and the Bucks favored by 18 over the beaten-up Spurs. The Nuggets and Raptors are also three score favorites in their respective games.
Add in the status of both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic being up in the air and things get a little dicey when trying to project minutes. We did not have a single edge worth playing in the NBA betting model, although we do have a few in the FTNBets NBA Player Prop Tool that are worth looking into more.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 Points
Rudy Gobert has now topped the 13.5 prop number in six straight games. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are expected back in the lineup for this game, although I doubt we get anywhere near max minutes for KAT. The matchup is a decent one — Atlanta ranks in the bottom half of the league for points allowed per 100 possessions and has allowed above-average production to opposing centers in 2022-23. Once Towns works back into full game shape I would back off, but for now they are still going to need points from other players, and Gobert has been providing them.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Chris Paul Over 9.5 Assists
We mentioned the splits on our way to cashing the Chris Paul assist over last game. I am looking to go back to that well again here. CP3 averages just under nine assists per game on the season but has averaged over 11 assists in the games where Deandre Ayton is out. Ayton will once again be out Wednesday, which sets Paul up for another potentially big night. Caesars has this juiced down, which makes it even more appealing.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Rebounds
Nikola Jokic has one of the biggest edges in the rebounding market vs. his prop number in our FTN Player Prop Projection model. This number opened at standard -110 juice on 11.5 and has been bet up on every single book. FanDuel is the only one remaining that is below -120. Jokic has 10 or more rebounds in 20 of his last 21 games. He’s topped 11.5 rebounds in 16 of those 21 games. The Wizards are in the bottom half of the league for production allowed to opposing centers and over the last two weeks they have been the second worst defensive team in basketball, based on points allowed per 100 possessions.
