Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! March is full of madness, and not just in the college ranks. The Thunder, Nuggets and Timberwolves are all withing 1.5 games of the top seed in the Western Conference, which gives them homecourt advantage in every series until the Finals. Both teams currently in the 6 spot of their respective conference hold just a half game lead over the team in 7 seed, which is the difference between a guaranteed playoff bid and having to earn it in the Play-In Tournament.
I know there’s more excitement about what the semi-amateurs are doing through the end of the weekend, but don’t be too distracted because the professionals are playing some great, very important games. Let’s go through the seven games on Thursday’s slate to see which games are the best to watch and which are the best to bet.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic
Current Line – Pelicans -3, 207.5
My Projection – Pelicans 108, Magic 103
Key Injuries – None
This should be a great game, so make sure you find a screen for this matchup among all of your March Madness screens. The Pelicans are starting to become dark horse candidates to win multiple playoff series in the Western Conference. They have size, athleticism, depth, good defense and plenty of offense thanks to Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas. The Magic are going to be a tough out in this year’s postseason and in the playoffs for years to come. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are a great foundation that the Magic have put athletic, good defenders around and just enough shooting to make it all work. I think New Orleans has the better roster and can use Zion and Valanciunas to get a good look at the basket whenever they want. The books have made spread the three, but I make the Pelicans five-point favorites. That’s a small edge, but not one I’m going to bet. Instead, I think there’s more value in betting on the total.
The current total is 207.5, and I think that’s too low. Yes, these are the two best defensive teams in the NBA since the All-Star break. Yes, the Magic are the second-slowest team in the league during that stretch, while the Pelicans are middle of the pack. Looking into the games that make up those results, Orlando has played almost exclusively other slow teams in that stretch. As I mentioned, it’s not like New Orleans pushes pace, but they are not a slow team and I see several matchups the Pelicans can exploit. The Magic have some great defenders, but like everyone in the NBA, they will struggle to handle Zion’s size and speed. Orlando lacks a good center and Valanciunas continues to be a force in the post. With New Orleans scoring, I expect Orlando to open things up a bit as they try to keep up with them. Even if that’s not the case and the game is very slow, there should be enough offensive efficiency to get us over this total. I like the over and would play it at 208.5 or lower.
Bet
New Orleans Pelicans/Orlando Magic Over 207.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets -4, 218.5
Current Line – Rockets -4, 218.5
My Projection – Rockets 114, 106
Key Injuries – Alperen Sengun and Cam Whitmore are out. Alex Caruso and Coby White are questionable.
For some reason, the Bulls seem to peak in March. Now, their peak is a spot in the Play-In Tournament, but they are 6-4 since March started. The Bulls are threatening to earn the 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and the right to get swept by the Boston Celtics. A lot of that success has been from the evolution of Coby White into a potential All-Star player someday. White is a top candidate for the Most Improved Player award thanks to his great play in place of Zach LaVine, but White might not be able to play Thursday. He has missed the last few games after hurting his knee, and even if he does play will be less than 100% and possibly on a minute’s limit. Chicago is also in danger of playing with Alex Caruso who is their best defender and 3-point shooter. The Bulls need at least one of those, and likely both, to be able to win games. This is an odd, one game road trip for Chicago to face a nonconference opponent and potentially without two of their best players.
The Rockets are missing a few key players themselves, but they have good depth and have adapted into a different team. Alperen Sengun was the Houston offense. He was the hub of activity on that end like a Nikola Jokic-lite-type big man who makes great passes and can score efficiently himself. Cam Whitmore came off the bench as a spark plug capable of scoring 20-plus points in even limited minutes. Without them, the Rockets have not been as good offensively, but their defense has been even better. Sengun and Whitmore are not great defensively and the guys who have taken their minutes are long, athletic players that understand how to thrive in Ime Udoka’s scheme. Houston should be able to dictate pace and keep Chicago from scoring in this matchup. The Rockets have been one of they very best teams against the spread at home and I expect that to continue tonight. I make them 8-point favorites and the market is offering us a spread of just 4. I’ll lay the points with the home team.
Bet
Houston Rockets -4 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards +11.5, 237
This game is a good one to skip entirely. It will not be a good watch, and there’s nothing of value to bet. The Kings have been better against the spread on the road than at home, which is different than what we’ve seen the last few seasons. Sacramento is the best team in this game and by a good margin, but they had to play in Toronto Wednesday night and might look to rest some of their guys against a nonconference opponent. As someone that backed the Wizards with some success just after the All-Star break, I’d like to take a spread this large against a tired team with questionable motives, but Washington’s lineup is even worse than it was a few weeks ago. Tyus Jones, Bilal Coulibaly, and Marvin Bagley III are out and Deni Avdija is listed as questionable. This might be the roster of any team all season and they’re only getting 11.5 points. I make the Kings 10.5-point favorites with a total of 238, which puts me close to the market. I don’t see any edges and will happily pass on this game.
Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks -9.5, 220.5
It’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Bucks, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is struggling to recover from a hamstring strain. Even without the former MVP and on no rest, they should be able to handle this Nets squad. Khris Middleton is playing himself back into form and Damian Lillard has picked up his scoring to lead this team to wins. Brooklyn has nothing to play for at this point of the season. They don’t have their own draft pick, which gives them no reason to tank, but they are too far out of playoff race to push hard to win games. I make this game Milwaukee -8 with a total of 222 which shows a little value on Brooklyn and the over, but I’m not betting either of those. As I said, there is no rhyme or reason to the motivation of the Nets. They could push hard, hit a lot of 3s and maybe even win this game or they could play sloppily, miss a lot of 3s and lose by 20-plus. I just don’t feel confident in my projections or expectations of what this game will look like so I’m not going to bet it.
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks -14.5, 237.5
Speaking of games that are hard to handicap, this one is almost as difficult to project as the last matchup. The Jazz played in Oklahoma City Wednesday night and lost a tough game to the Thunder. Lauri Markkanen was questionable and is likely questionable here. If he can play, Utah is a bad team, and if he can’t play, Utah is a very bad team. The Mavericks have a lot of talent but are struggling to find the right combinations of players to maximize their performance. They are winning games and beating good teams, but they have struggled to put teams away and win by margin. Dallas should win this game by 20 if Markkanen is out, but it’s hard to trust them to finish the game the way they need to win by 20 or even by the 15 points required to cover this spread. My projections show a little value on the Jazz if Markkanen can somehow play, but I don’t expect that to happen and the spread might move too far anyway. If I do make a bet here, I’ll put in the #nba-plays channel of the FTN Bets Discord later when the injury report is final.
New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets -9, 208
This is the final night of a four-game Western Conference road trip for the Knicks. They have won all three games so far, but I think that streak ends here. New York is missing OG Anunoby, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson. They still have a good team, but without those players they are not on the same level as the defending champions. The Nuggets are just half a game out of the No. 1 seed in the West and they have been playing better basketball each night in pursuit of that top spot. Thursday is an odd, one game homestand for them, but Denver plays their best in front of the home crowd and should win this game comfortably although maybe not by margin. The Nuggets win a lot of games, but rarely by double digits which is what they need to do to cover this spread. They slow down at the end of games and grind the clock instead of trying to pour on more points. I make this game Nuggets -8 with a total of 210, which is close to the current odds. This will be a fun watch, but I don’t see any value in the betting markets.
Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns -9, 226.5
If you are a regular reader of Hoops with Noops, you have become familiar with “two bad options” games, which is what we have here. Do you want to lay nine points with a Phoenix team that is on the second night of a back-to-back and has struggled to defend and rebound late in games? Or would you like to take just nine points with a Hawks team on the last night of a five-game road trip and is without Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Saddiq Bey? I hate both of those options. The Suns are the most overrated team in the betting markets based on my numbers, but the Hawks have been the worst team against the spread in the NBA all season. I show a little value on Atlanta and the over with my model spitting out Suns -7.5 with a total of 225. Those edges are too small to bet, and I don’t see anything I like about either team in this game. I’ll pass on this one.
