Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The NBA seasons grind on with a six-game slate Friday. To be honest, it’s a messy group of games. We do get to see Nikola Jokic go against Victor Wembanyama, but any other potential marquee matchups are marred by player availability concerns. 82 games is a lot to play in about 7 months, and nights like this are the cost we pay for that much regular season basketball.
I know that’s a bit of a downer, but fear not! The quality of the game and the players therein do not stop our chances of finding value in the betting markets. Never forget, you don’t have to watch every game you bet. The tickets still cash if you’re watching a movie with your loved ones. Let’s go through each matchup and see where value might lie.
Of course, since it’s Friday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Please leave a comment there if you have any questions of your own and I’ll get back to you ASAP. Now, onto the hoops.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets
Current Line – Suns -9.5, 218
My Projection – Suns 112, Hornets 102
Key Injuries – LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams and Seth Curry are out.
This should be an easy win for the Suns. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are all better than the best player the Hornets have. It is the second night of a back-to-back and maybe one of those three players sit, but Phoenix is still the superior team. The Hornets have been playing better basketball the last few weeks and have two players, Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller, who might be able to slow down Phoenix’s stars, but they won’t be able to completely stop them. Looking at the backups, this is one of the times the Suns may have a better bench than their opponent. The Hornets depth has been ravaged by trades and injuries. That means Phoenix should be able to win with their starters and at worst, not lose bench minutes. It’s tough to trust a veteran team with no rest, but I agree with the market that the Suns should be close to double-digit favorites.
I’m close to the current spread, but I think the total is too high. The Hornets have been a top 10 defense in the NBA since the All-Star break. They don’t have much talent, but the players they do have are athletic, long and play hard on defense. Charlotte also plays at one of the slowest paces in the league since the break. Strong defense and fewer possessions is a good way for bad teams to give themselves a chance to win games. Phoenix’s offense is in the top half of the NBA, but there pace is just above average. As I mentioned, this is the second night of a back-to-back for the Suns and as a veteran team that has a big impact. Phoenix’s offensive rating with rest is 118.5 and only 115.5 without resting the day before a game. I think this profiles as a slow game and I expect the Suns offensive efficiency to dip. That all adds up to an under bet on this total.
Bet
Phoenix Suns/Charlotte Hornets Under 218 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
Current Line – Magic -8.5, 217.5
My Projection – Magic 113, Raptors 102
Key Injuries – Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl are out. Gary Trent is questionable.
The Magic are just one game behind the New York Knicks for the 4 seed in the Eastern Conference which would allow them to host a playoff series for the first time since 2011. It’s an interesting roster with a potential star in Paolo Banchero, a potential great player in Franz Wagner, and one of the best defensive guards in the NBA, Jalen Suggs, who is shooting close to 40% from beyond the arc. That’s a great foundation and they have the assets to make the team even better in the year’s to come. The Magic have been a great defensive team all season and their offense gets better every night. Banchero is learning to create offense for others and Franz Wagner is a nice fit next to him. They are likely to beat this Raptors team Friday and when they play again in Orlando Sunday.
The Raptors were a fun team for a few weeks at different times this season, but trades and injuries have ravaged their roster. Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are playing for different teams. Scottie Barnes and RJ Barret are out and Gary Trent might miss yet another game. That doesn’t leave much talent left in the locker room. Backups like Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji have been pulled into starting roles and their bench minutes are being filled with Jordan Nwora, Jaylen McDaniels, Jevonte Porter and Jahmi’us Ramsey. I just now learned that Jahmi’us Ramsey is a person who apparently plays for Toronto. This team is in bad shape and very limited. Immanuel Quickley is healthy, but he’ll get swallowed up by Jalen Suggs and all the long, athletes the Magic have to throw at him. I don’t see how Toronto can score points in this matchup. I think Orlando can cover this spread, but I see a better angle. I’ll take the Raptors Team Total Under 104.5.
Bet
Toronto Raptors Team Total Under 104.5 -115
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons +8, 215
This is the first game of a two-game series in Detroit between these teams. The Heat have lost their last four games and this should be a good opportunity to get two easy wins. The Pistons have been playing better basketball, but Cade Cunningham is questionable to play tonight and even with him, the Heat have a much better roster. Miami is in a tight competition for the 6 seed in the East, which is the last guaranteed postseason spot. The Heat should crush this team, but they tend to take this game’s easy to rest their best players. They still win, but not by margin against bad teams. Miami is 7-7 against the spread with an average margin of victory of 5.8 points against the Pistons, Washington Wizards, Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers. With Cunningham in, I make the spread Heat -6 and without him, I make the spread Heat -10. Maybe we get a bettable number once Cunnigham’s status is finalized, but there’s no value in placing a wager now. If I do bet this game, I’ll put the picks in the FTN Bets Discord.
Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans -7.5, 216.5
This is a bad spot for the Clippers, and they may be without some of their best players. Los Angeles won by 15 points in Chicago Thursday with James Harden. Kawhi Leonard was listed as questionable with back spasms but played 34 minutes and looked fine. These teams played with everyone healthy about 5 weeks ago in LA and the Clippers closed as 5.5-point favorites. Using that as a point of reference, you can see that the market expects both Harden and Kawhi to miss the game. If both are out, I’m close to this spread and total, but obviously things look much different if even one of them can play. Once the injury report clears up, I might look to back the Pelicans in the first quarter and first half. New Orleans has dominated games early and should be able to start well against Los Angeles, but I need to wait to see who’s actually playing. Keep an eye on the #nba-plays channel in the Discord. I’ll put those wagers there if/when I do make them.
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs +10.5, 223
This is not exactly a home game for the Spurs, as they will host the Nuggets in Austin. It’s not San Antonio, but it’s only about a 90-minute drive from there to Austin. Normally I would look to fade the Nuggets on the road, against a bad team, but Denver is in a tight race for the top seed in the Western Conference. That means they can’t afford to lose this game and they have time to rest before their next contest. I’d also generally be looking to play the Spurs in the first quarter at home against a good team, but the Nuggets have been even better than them in the first quarter. I make Denver favorites by nine with a total of 223, which is close to the market. I can’t see any value in the prices or good angles to attack, so I’ll pass on this game.
Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz +2.5, 223.5
I’m really not sure what to do with this game. Neither team is playing for much. The Hawks are all but locked into the 10 seed in the Eastern Conference and a date with the Chicago Bulls to start the Play-In Tournament. Atlanta is still trying to figure out how to play without Trae Young, but there’s not any reason to push hard to improve their standing or tank to improve their draft pick. The Utah Jazz are six games behind the 10 seed in the Western Conference, but they’ve won too many games to have a good chance of getting a top five draft pick. It feels silly to say that Hawks deserve to be favorites on the road, but it feels even more silly to make a case for the Jazz without Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson. There’s not much talent left in Utah, but they play their best at home and Atlanta hasn’t been playing great basketball. I make the Hawks 1.5-point favorites with a total of 225 which are close enough to the current odds for me to pass on this mess of a game.
