MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Things are happening in the NBA. The Nuggets are showing flashes of their brilliance and beating the best teams in the league as they inch closer to the top seed in the Western Conference. The Clippers are falling back in the pack and suddenly in danger of starting the playoffs on the road. The 76ers and Suns are on the razor’s edge of falling into the Play-In Tournament and losing their guaranteed spot in the postseason. The Spurs are managing Victor Wembanayama’s rest to hold onto their spot in the bottom three of the standings.
It’s a great time of the season, and we grind toward the end of the marathon of 82 games. We’ve got six more games tonight and a chance to win some money.
Of course, since it is Monday you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Put any questions you might have in the comment section on YouTube. I’ll be sure to answer as soon as possible. Now, onto the hoops.
NBA Best Bets for Monday
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls
Current Line – Mavericks -4, 232.5
My Projection – Mavericks 116, Bulls 115
Key Injuries – Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams are out.
The Mavericks have been a bit of a mess the last two weeks. They are 3-5 in their last eight and have been changing their starting lineup game-to-game. Dallas has the worst defensive rating in the NBA since the All-Star break giving up 123.1 points per 100 possessions. The second-worst defensive rating is 119.3 points per 100 possessions, which is almost four points lower. The Mavericks have the third-best offensive rating at 119.8 points per 100 possessions which is good, but not good enough to make up for their defense. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are the core of a devastating offense that can get a good shot any time they want, but also a bad defensive team that gives up any shot their opponents want any time they want. There is a lot of talent on this team, but if they can’t find a way to put it together then this will be another disappointing end to the season in Dallas.
As has become tradition, the Bulls are pushing hard and playing their best basketball at the end of the season. They are fighting to hold onto the 9 seed in the Eastern Conference to keep homecourt advantage in the first game of the Play-In Tournament. This is their first game at home after an impressive 3-1 road trip against Western Conference opponents. They are in the middle of the league in both offensive and defensive ratings and close to a net rating of 0. The Bulls play their best in Chicago and especially against teams with bad defenses. Their starting lineup of Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic has coalesced nicely. There is a balance of ball handling and shooting on offense and good defenders that can cover up for not so good defenders. I expect them to find ways to slow down Dallas and score enough points to keep this game close. I’ll take the Bulls +4 in a game that I think will have a one point margin of victory.
Bet
Chicago Bulls +4 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets
Current Line – Nuggets -14.5, 231.5
My Projection – Denver Nuggets 123, Raptors 105
Key Injuries – Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are out. Immanuel Quickley, Gary Trent and Bruce Brown are questionable.
The Nuggets are starting to play better basketball each week and are ramping up to their peak for the playoffs. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and are just one game behind the Thunder for the top seed in the Western Conference. Denver might win this game by 20, 25, even 30-plus points, but they also might use tonight as a chance to rest their starts and give their backups more run. The Nuggets know the importance of keeping everyone healthy and giving their support players a chance to play more minutes in case they are needed in the playoffs. In games like this, we’ve seen slow the pace down to limit possessions and lockdown on defense. Denver has also rested their starters late in these games to try to keep them under 30 minutes played. This style of game makes it much harder for the Nuggets to win by such a big margin. I do show some value in betting them -14.5, but my model assumes we see 48 minutes of Denver’s best effort so I’m not laying the points with the Nuggets.
The Raptors have had a bad season. They started the season with playoff aspirations and were never in serious contention to make the postseason. At the trade deadline, they moved Pascal Siakam and traded OG Anunoby before that. The Raptors still have an interesting core to build around in Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, but only one of those guys is likely to play tonight. There is also a chance that Gary Trent, the team’s best shooter, and Jakob Poeltl, the team’s best, big center. There’s just a dearth of talent in the Toronto locker room tonight and certainly not enough good players to score against the Nuggets let alone beat them. The Raptors would struggle to generate offense against any team tonight, but especially against the Denver defense and in a game with a slow pace. Their team total is 107.5, I have them at 105, and think there’s more downside than upside in that projection. I’m going to be the Toronto team total under at 107.5.
Bet
Toronto Raptors Team Total Under 107.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons -3.5, 215.5
These teams have 26 wins combined this season. There are 23 teams in the NBA that have 26 or more wins on their own. The end of the season is always tough for teams like these. Should they commit to losing games to give themselves the best chances for the best draft pick possible or should they push to win games with no chance of making the postseason? Culture is important and as someone who watched “The Process” 76ers stunt the growth of young talent, I think it’s best to push hard and instill the right values. The Pistons have lost enough games where they don’t have to worry about wins messing up their chances at the top pick. They are playing with effort and have even won a few games. The Hornets should be tanking because they have a chance to improve their odds for the #1 spot in the draft, but in true Hornets fashion, they are sabotaging themselves by playing to win. This should be a good spot to back the Pistons against a team trying to lose, but the Hornets are trying to win and my projections are within a point of these numbers. I’ll happily pass on this game in every way possible.
Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers +6, 221
It looks like Devin Booker is returning to reunite the Phoenix big three. The Suns haven’t been great on the road, but they are the super team in this game and in the better schedule spot. The Cavaliers will be without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Max Strus. They also played last night in Cleveland and lost to the Brooklyn Nets by 19. Their starters didn’t play a big minute load, but it’s never easy to play two nights in a row. This is a tough matchup for the Cavaliers who rely on the strength of their defense, but will struggle to slow down Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Booker like all NBA teams do. I make this game Phoenix -7 with a total of 219, which is close to market. My numbers don’t have an edge and I can’t see any big advantages in the matchup, so I won’t be betting this game.
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs +4.5, 227
Despite not having Stephen Curry, who is out until further notice, the Warriors closed as 12.5-point favorites at home against the Spurs who were without Victory Wembanayama and Devin Vassell. The Spurs won that game by 13 points in one of the bigger upsets this season. They play again Monday in San Antonio and Victory Wembanayama and Devin Vassell are expected to play. That makes the Spurs much better, but is the 8-point adjustment to the spread too big or too small? The adjustment for the change in venue is about 2-points. Golden State gets a decent boost at home, but San Antonio isn’t much of a home court advantage. That leaves 6-points of the adjustment for Wembanyama and Vassell, which feels a little light to me, but not enough to get me to back the Spurs. I make this game Warriors -3.5, which is a small edge on the underdog, but not big enough for me to make a bet. Nothing for me in this game.
Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers +8.5, 217
Kristaps Porzingis is out. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are listed as questionable. In case you haven’t been paying attention this season, that means the entire starting five for Boston might not play. If at least two of the four players listed as questionable can play, these odds make sense to me. If all four are out, I’m not sure how to handicap this game. If the Celtics are forced to start Payton Prichard, Sam Hauser, Oshae Brissett, Xavier Tillman and Al Horford then I could make a case that the Trail Blazers should be favored. That’s kind of a terrifying thought. I just don’t know how we could possibly bet this game given how much uncertainty there is around it. I’ll keep an eye on things, but the market will move drastically once it’s clear who is playing and how is not. If I make a bet later on this game I’ll be sure to post it in the #nba-plays channel of the FTN Bets Discord.
