Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Jakob Poeltl Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jakob Poeltl always has the upside for 12-plus rebounds any night, but he has also been pretty productive on the assists front as well, so I like this combined prop. This is a great spot on the glass for Poeltl as the Lakers rank 27th in rebounds allowed and 25th in offensive rebounds allowed.
D’Angelo Russell Over 2.5 Rebounds
(-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
D’Angelo Russell has at least 3 rebounds in three of his first four games back with the Lakers, and he has at least 4 in two of those games. There’s a chance he’s a bit limited due to him returning from an injury, but the Lakers need wins, so DLo should still be able to turn in around 30 minutes.
Cameron Johnson Over 16.5 Points
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s been two down games in a row for Cameron Johnson, but last game he was limited in minutes. My model has him for 20-plus again here, and it’s no surprise considering he has an elite matchup against Minnesota who ranks 23rd in 3PTs allowed and 25th in 3PT% allowed.
