Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The trade deadline is over, and although no stars changed teams, there were several moves that made good teams better and should make the postseason even more competitive. The Knicks and Mavericks each added players who fix problems and add more dynamism to each squad. The Suns, 76ers and Thunder were able to add players who will help them the rest of the season without having to dig deep into their future assets.
An already competitive, interesting NBA season looks even better than it did yesterday. Let’s dive into tonight’s games to look at each matchup and try to find some value in the betting markets. Of course, since it’s Friday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Leave any questions or suggestions you might have in the comment section there, and I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP. To the hoops.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics
Current Line – Celtics -17, 236.5
My Projection – Celtics 129, Wizards 116
Key Injuries – Jayson Tatum is questionable.
This is the last of a seven-game homestand for the Boston Celtics before heading to Miami to play the Heat on national TV Sunday. Being at home that long is generally good for efficiency, but there is lookahead distraction of the game in Miami. The Heat and the Celtics have met in the last few postseasons and their games are always tightly contested, even in the regular season. Boston is still a great team and capable of crushing Washington, but I’m worried about the lookahead as well as the possibility of Jayson Tatum not playing. Tatum is sick and it would make a lot of sense to let him rest tonight so that he has the best chance of being healthy for the game Sunday. The Celtics are still very good without him, but they’re not great and certainly not as great as the market is rating them in this game.
The Wizards traded away their only good center, Daniel Gafford, and that leaves them with just one player taller than 6-foot-10. That is John Butler, who I didn’t know existed until just now. He played 11 minutes per game in 19 appearances for the Portland Trail Blazers last year. He has yet to play an NBA game this season. The market has downgraded Washington and I assume it’s for that reason, but I think the loss of Gafford is not going to make the Wizards worse but will make them different. They will have to rely on smaller lineups. Washington will struggle against good big men, but those are few and far between this season and the offense will only get better with another shooter or ball handler on the floor. They have played small throughout the season, especially late in games and it’s helped them cover a lot of spreads. I make the Celtics a 13-point favorite and love the chance of the Wizards being able to cover 17 points with a late flurry if needed. I’ll take the points with the underdog.
Bet
Washington Wizards +17 (Caesars)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers +2.5, 247
It’s the first of a back-to-back for the Hawks, and although they have covered the spread in four of their last five games, I still think their market rating is too high. Clint Capela is out and Dejounte Murray is questionable. Without either of those players Atlanta becomes thin on overall talent and useful players on the bench. I make the Hawks three-point favorites and didn’t really want to bet on them in the first place. Now that means I show an edge on the 76ers, but I’m not sure I trust that. Philadelphia has been losing without Joel Embiid and losing by a lot. They are struggling to find an identity without the reigning MVP and are also missing key secondary players in Nicolas Batum, De’Anthony Melton and Robert Covington. Buddy Heild and Cameron Payne will help, but those trades are not yet cleared and they are listed as out for this game. Neither team presents an appealing option and my model doesn’t see much value in anything so I’ll pass.
Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors -1.5, 233.5
First night of a B2B for Houston and Toronto, but the Rockets play Friday in Toronto and Saturday night in Atlanta. I expected to want to bet the Rockets as an underdog, but my model makes this Raptors -1. Houston has been the better team for the season, but if you look at the last few weeks there’s not much difference between these teams. I have Houston rated higher, but not by enough to make up for the homecourt advantage for the Raptors and the slightly worse travel spot for the Rockets. Toronto will likely be without a few key backups as trades from Thursday might not be finalized in time for the tip, but they have all of their starters and it’s a good starting five. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rockets win this game, but I don’t see an edge on either team, so I will not be betting this game.
Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks -14, 229.5
The Bucks played Thursday night without Khris Middleton, who is out for at least a few games, and without Damian Lillard, who was listed as questionable. They got crushed by the Minnesota Timberwolves. If bounceback spots really do exist, then this should be one for a Milwaukee team that has been a mess this season despite their good record. The Hornets are missing LaMelo Ball and is one of the least talented rosters in the league. I make this game Bucks -12, which shows a small edge on the Hornets, but I’m not interested in betting on a terrible team with no reason to try to win games. I will be watching the score of this game because if the Bucks can’t find a way to beat the Hornets by 15-plus points then things are looking very bleak for Milwaukee’s chances at a title this season. I will not be placing any wagers on this matchup.
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings -2.5, 232.5
The Nuggets are on the second night of a back-to-back, which isn’t usually a bad thing for them. Denver manages those spots differently than a lot teams by generally trying to save their best for the second night and not the first night. This situation is different because they played the Lakers last night who are a high-profile opponent. Friday, they play the Kings who are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Pistons. Sacramento could be a team that gets the Nuggets best effort, but it’s hard to tell. If the Nuggets play hard for four quarters, then I think they can win this game comfortably. If the Nuggets don’t give their best, then the Kings can win this game comfortably. I just don’t have a good handle on this game, so I can’t advise any bets for it.
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers +2.5, 233.5
Not only are LeBron James and Anthony Davis questionable, it’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Lakers, who are a veteran team. It’s a home back-to-back, which us less strenuous, but it does make it harder to trust the LeBron and AD will be playing after playing 35-plus minutes Thursday night. The Pelicans also have some roster uncertainty with Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas listed as questionable. Without either, New Orleans becomes a small team and that’s a problem if the Lakers have all their players at their disposal. If everyone plays, I make the Pelicans 1.5-point favorites. If Zion or Valanciunas can’t play, then I make the Lakers 1-point favorites. There’s too much uncertainty to bet this game now and the current market price is close to my number in the few possible scenarios. I’m going to pass on this game, but will keep an eye on the spread once the injury report becomes more certain. I doubt that I’ll bet this game, but any bets I do make will end up in the FTN Bets Discord.
