Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA All-Star break is now in our rear-view mirror, and the fight for the playoffs is on. The trade deadline has also passed, so now we see which teams are ready to make that late-season surge and which are going to be holding on to the playoff territory they have for dear life.
We have a large nine-game slate, which is not typical for a Thursday evening. The teams are all relatively healthy and the spreads are all relatively close, with the exception of the double-digit numbers we see for San Antonio taking on Dallas. The NBA player prop model has quite a few edges, but only my favorites made it to the NBA Best bets article. You can see all of our bets for today in the NBA Bet Tracker.
Best NBA Total Bet
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks Under 237.5
(-110, BetMGM)
The Spurs roster is still littered with players who are unlikely to play. The remaining players lack scoring punch. Keldon Johnson is the only projected starter averaging more than 11 points per game. Dallas has played at a slower pace much of the season, but the additions at the trade deadline may change that moving forward. Every other book has this at 237 or below, so getting an under with the extra 0.5 at the same -110 on MGM is the best price.
Best NBA Point Prop Bet
Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points
(-105, BetMGM)
Jayson Tatum is coming off an All-Star MVP showing where he poured in 55 points. The last time he played the Pacers, he dropped 41 on them. Tatum is averaging over 30 per night on the season and draws a matchup here with one of the fastest paced teams in the league. Indiana is also one of the worst defensive teams in the league, currently ranking sixth worse for points allowed per 100 possessions. Tatum has scored 30 or more in 10 of the last 14 games the Celtics have played, so we have an edge on him at this number.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Darius Garland Under 8.5 Assists
(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I would have played this if it was under 7.5 for -110, which is about the equivalent at -135 for under 8.5 assists. Darius Garland has not had more than 7 assists in any of the last six games played. He’s been around that number with 5-7 in each game, but he needs 9 to cash this here, and that is asking too much. The 222.5 total in this game is the lowest on the board for the NBA tonight and I’m not going to play over in scoring categories (Assists or Points) when we have other games with much bigger numbers to target for that.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Jakob Poeltl Over 7.5 Rebounds
(-102, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jakob Poeltl started the last two games before the break after being traded from San Antonio. He smashed in his last contest, scoring 30 points and grabbing 9 rebounds against the Magic in 37 minutes of action. Precious Achiuwa is a little undersized to bang with Jonas Valanciunas of the Pelicans, which should lead to big minutes for Poeltl again this evening. Poeltl is averaging 9 rebounds in only 26 minutes of action on the season. If he sees anywhere near 30, that should be enough to get him his over.
