Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NBA has a five-game slate for Valentine’s Day, but unfortunately it is not one that I love. It had promise, but the injury report may rob us of the best game on the slate between the Celtics and Bucks. The Celtics have Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart already ruled out, with six other players listed as questionable including Jayson Tatum. The Clippers and Raptors are also three-possession favorites, so this is shaping up to be a slate that lacks competitive games. We do have a few edges in both the FTN NBA Betting Model and the FTN NBA Player Prop Model. Here are a few of my best bets for Valentine’s Day. I hope you love them as much as I do.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Washington Wizards +3.5
Our NBA betting model actually has the Wizards winning this game by 2 points, so the fact they are a +3.5 dog, means we have 5- to 6-point edge on this number from our projections. I debated the money line bet as well, which is +135 on DraftKings right now. I like that too, but ultimately went with the protection of the +3.5. Many books have dropped this down to +3 or juiced it to -115 or -120. FanDuel is the best payout now at the higher +3.5 number.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Jrue Holiday Under 19.5 Points
The Bucks face the Celtics and are nine-point favorites. The Celtics are without Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart. Jayson Tatum is also questionable, which is why the -9 spread makes sense. Even in games that have been closer, Jrue Holiday has only reached 20 points in one of his last six games. I’m not expecting this to be the game they need to push him to score, especially if the Celtics plan on playing the big squad.
Best NBA 3-Point Prop Bet
Derrick White Over 2.5 3-Pointers
Derrick White should be relied upon more with a lot of the Celtics’ perimeter guys out. The Bucks are also a team that does give up deep shots and White has been chucking up 3-point attempts lately. He’s taken 6, 14 and 9 in the last three games. He’s hit 3, 8 and 4 over this recent stretch too.
